FREE WHELAN: This is what a bull market in 2024 probably looks like

In this Stockhead series, investment manager James Whelan, managing director Barclay Pearce Capital Asset Management, offers his insights on the key investment themes and trends in domestic and global markets. From macro musings to the metaverse and everything in between, Whelan offers his distilled thoughts on the hot topic of the day, week, month or year, from the point of view of a professional money manager.

Ed: This is to confirm that the Superbowl prediction at the end of this edition of Free Whelan, was received before kick off in Nevada and was brought to you by Taylor Swift’s new album.

Starting off with a bit of a rant on this Super Bowl Monday and as someone who works – and has worked quite closely – with professional athletes there’s nothing here that I can fault:

Sigh. Barnaby.

We have a former deputy PM who we just expect is in a perennial state of oblivion while on the job, and we’re all just okay with it.

I’d be okay with it were it not for the double standard the media has in this regard.

We cover this and more on the latest episode of the podcast.

A few decent market tips as well in there.

I’m in particularly fine form.

Speaking of which…

I’ll grant that the above is tenuous at best with regards to market related content but it had to be said.

Something else that is very much market related is having to watch the painful charade around President Biden’s cognitive abilities. If you didn’t follow it he was being investigated for knowingly taking classified documents when leaving the VP gig in 2017.

“Special Counsel Robert Hur said in a report that he opted against bringing criminal charges following a 15-month investigation because Biden cooperated and would be difficult to convict, describing him as a…

“…well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”

And. Wow.

“As for Trump, we don’t see any scenario under the current circumstances in which, if he is legally allowed to run, that he isn’t the next elected President. Note I say ‘elected’ because there’s real likelihood that Biden has to take a break.”

Direct Translation… Mr Trump has already done the Presidency. I can’t stand him but the playbook is simply to insert the same thing that happened in 2016 but without the mucking around in the first few months finding their feet. Business friendly, tariffs, no foreign wars, waking up every day with some fresh nonsense-statements his staff has to wind back.

In short, bullish markets.

RBA rates

Anyone who says there’s a chance of hikes is wrong, plain and simple.

At least as per last week re: RBA Governor Bullock’s messaging.

Listen to the head of Financial Markets Strategy at Westpac if you actually want to know what’s going on:

There’s a US Credit Grinch, not a crunch

Finally there’s a few things flashing around about how much credit card debt is rising in the States.

Beware jumping at shadows when it comes to dollar figures like that. Most things in dollar terms are getting bigger (if you think about it).

Wealth is also going up. Bigger numbers are getting bigger. Relax.

Via X

Go with the February flow, but a little less so

Markets continue to track higher against February seasonality. The stats say ease off a little exposure into the back half of the month.

Stay safe and all the best,

(Kansas City Chiefs by 3!)

James

Ed: As previously mentioned…

Via Google

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