New 39% Tariff Creates Uncertainty
Gold prices have surged throughout 2025, but fresh U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) guidance has sparked confusion among investors. The agency clarified that 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars are subject to a 39% tariff, part of the broader levies on Swiss goods imposed by President Trump. This surprised traders who believed these bars would be exempt from reciprocal tariffs. Scott Travers, editor in chief of COINage magazine, said guidelines remain “ambiguous,” fueling speculation in the market.
Gold futures hit an intraday high of $4,490 per ounce on Friday before easing, as investors reacted to the uncertainty. The ruling does not appear to impact smaller bars, but Travers cautioned that the lack of clarity leaves room for misinterpretation.
Impact on Costco Gold Sales
Costco (COST) sells Swiss-made, 1-ounce gold bullion bars to members online. According to Travers, these bars — the most widely used form of retail gold investment — are not mentioned in CBP’s latest ruling. That would mean they remain outside the scope of the new tariff. Costco declined to comment on the matter, but the retail giant’s gold offerings have often sold out quickly during periods of heightened demand.
The distinction between large and small bars is critical, as 1-ounce gold bars dominate global retail transactions, while 1-kilogram and 100-ounce bars are typically used in institutional or high-net-worth trading.
Investor Caution Amid Price Surge
Despite the price spike, Travers advised gold buyers to avoid reacting to the current speculative environment. He warned against buying in haste on tariff fears or selling in the belief that others are misinformed. “Until this is clarified, I don’t think anyone should do anything,” he said.
Travers views gold less as a growth investment and more as a form of insurance. In extreme scenarios such as a collapse of fiat currencies, he said gold would retain its utility as a tradable, universally recognized asset. However, he reiterated that speculative moves based on unclear tariff rules could backfire.
Outlook for the Gold Market
The next steps depend on whether U.S. authorities issue more precise guidance on the tariff’s scope. In the meantime, market volatility is likely to persist as traders assess the potential impact on supply and demand for different types of gold bars. For now, the advice from seasoned analysts is simple: wait for clarity before making major moves.
