Eye on Lithium: The consensus is there’s no consensus on when lithium prices will begin to rise again

Fastmarkets says next lithium upcycle to begin mid/late 2025
“I do expect prices to remain around current levels for at least the next couple of years”: Fastmarkets analyst Jordan Roberts
‘Mr Lithium’ Joe Lowry believes market bottom “by the second half of 2024 at the latest”
Benchmark says there are a couple of bull market signals to keep an eye on: flagging mine supply and booming EV sales

Is it too early to load up on sold down lithium stocks? Maybe, says Fastmarkets battery raw materials analyst Jordan Roberts.

While the next couple of years represent another attractive opportunity to invest in the lithium sector, Roberts says punters should prepare to be waiting until mid/late 2025 for the next upcycle to begin.

“If we look at the length of the cycles in the lithium market, the last “winter” so to speak lasted between 2-2.5 years between 2019 and 2021,” he told Stockhead.

“Spot lithium prices have been on the decline for roughly a year now. So if we apply the timeline from above, that points to a recovery in the middle to late 2025.

“So I do expect prices to remain around current levels for at least the next couple of years based on a supply and demand balance that is pointing to a market surplus in 2024 and 2025.

“Lithium stocks are currently some of the most shorted on the ASX, so I think there is a fairly strong belief that the lower price environment is here to stay for a while and there is low risk of a potential short squeeze.

“There is still a hunger for lithium generally and positive sentiment for long-term demand fundamentals. I believe that the first sign of a stable recovery in price, not just short-term restocking driven, will be reflected in stock sentiment.”

But prices won’t go stratospheric again. Probably

Roberts says believes lithium prices probably won’t go as mental as they did in 2022, when spodumene was paying over US$8000/t and chemicals topped US$87,000/t.

“The sector’s move away from fixed long-term contracts to index-based price mechanisms, and the increasing use of futures contracts should cap potential price upside (in theory) and avoid a return to $87 dollars per kilogram,” he says.

“However, Should the current price environment cause producers to pause expansions and project development to enter a hibernation period, this could create the perfect storm that again results in another price run-up akin to 2021-2022.”

SC Insights lithium expert Andy Leyland agrees.

5/ Boom & Bust: The slowdown in financing on raw materials is already sowing the seeds of the next sustained price rally. For now there is enough lithium in the pipeline, but expect deployment to slowdown.
Most Supply and Demand forecast models will show a deficit developing… pic.twitter.com/R2ZfqzzDEp

— Andy Leyland (@andyleyland1) December 26, 2023

What do other experts say?

Like Leyland, ‘Mr Lithium’ Joe Lowry believes the lithium chemical supply surplus isn’t as big as analysts believe. He expects prices will begin to rise sometime in 2024.

“Much of Chinese lepidolite is losing money at current spot pricing. Even Chinese companies can’t lose money on a long-term basis without subsidy,” Lowry told Stockhead.

“I believe the bottom happens by the second half of 2024 at the latest.”

Host of The Global Lithium Podcast, Joe Lowry is one of the world’s foremost #lithium market experts. Here, he gives his takes on the battery metal’s outlook as the industry recharges for 2024. https://t.co/uet08QUWHm

— Stockhead (@StockheadAU) January 1, 2024

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts “a more balanced market in 2024” but one which is “likely to keep prices at similar levels to today”.

But there’s a couple of bullish signals to keep an eye on, it says.

“The slim forecasted surplus could swing into a deficit if only one major project delay occurs. Equally, should global EV sales rise 600,000 units above base case demand forecasts, the supply and demand dynamic would flip, which could lend some support to prices.”

Not an unthinkable scenario, says Benchmark.

Then there’s the Big Bear Goldman Sachs, which is predicting prices to bottom out in 2025 due to oversupply, before rising in 2026.

Say what you like about Goldman Sachs (Lowry certainly does), but some of its analysis on lithium forecasting in 2023 turned out to be pretty accurate.

Macquarie has also pivoted from its bullish September outlook, and now says the market for lithium will “remain in surplus for several years”.

ASX lithium form guide:

Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop. (Note: figures accurate per ASX at 4pm.)

Stocks missing from this list? Email [email protected]

CODE COMPANY WEEK MONTH 6 MONTH YEAR PRICE MARKET CAP MTM MTM Critical Metals 92% 283% -12% 16% 0.092 $6,761,722 EUR European Lithium Ltd 56% 54% 13% 52% 0.1125 $146,395,113 ARN Aldoro Resources 52% 47% 19% -22% 0.125 $16,827,968 GLN Galan Lithium Ltd 33% 19% -16% -32% 0.73 $243,895,873 CMD Cassius Mining Ltd 29% 29% 18% 100% 0.04 $20,104,422 PAM Pan Asia Metals 24% 3% -30% -62% 0.155 $20,877,679 EVR Ev Resources Ltd 22% 10% -15% -21% 0.011 $12,095,472 YAR Yari Minerals Ltd 22% -21% -21% -35% 0.011 $5,547,115 LLI Loyal Lithium Ltd 22% 6% 14% 24% 0.365 $25,240,547 DAF Discovery Alaska Ltd 21% 44% -18% -28% 0.023 $4,450,459 NWM Norwest Minerals 19% 0% -33% -41% 0.032 $7,764,377 DYM Dynamicmetalslimited 18% 0% -48% 0% 0.165 $4,900,000 JLL Jindalee Lithium Ltd 17% 2% -44% -48% 0.98 $62,909,722 BNR Bulletin Res Ltd 17% -3% 130% 51% 0.14 $41,105,865 FIN FIN Resources Ltd 17% -21% 50% 11% 0.021 $14,283,911 OZM Ozaurum Resources 17% 22% 233% 112% 0.14 $23,812,500 WML Woomera Mining Ltd 16% 21% 123% 53% 0.029 $34,617,142 VKA Viking Mines Ltd 15% 25% 50% 50% 0.015 $14,353,618 KZR Kalamazoo Resources 14% 0% 4% -43% 0.12 $20,564,337 AUN Aurumin 14% 0% -19% -59% 0.025 $9,319,520 CTN Catalina Resources 13% 13% 50% -55% 0.0045 $5,573,191 TYX Tyranna Res Ltd 13% -5% -5% -25% 0.018 $55,886,231 G88 Golden Mile Res Ltd 12% -10% -64% -7% 0.019 $6,258,401 AGY Argosy Minerals Ltd 12% -12% -63% -75% 0.145 $189,595,012 LTR Liontown Resources 11% 24% -40% 28% 1.685 $3,996,274,846 AML Aeon Metals Ltd. 11% -9% -33% -63% 0.01 $12,060,407 INR Ioneer Ltd 11% 3% -56% -61% 0.15 $316,711,822 WCN White Cliff Min Ltd 11% -9% 43% -29% 0.01 $11,489,034 BM8 Battery Age Minerals 11% -5% -61% -59% 0.205 $16,936,009 LRS Latin Resources Ltd 10% 53% -14% 181% 0.275 $796,234,767 GT1 Greentechnology 10% -13% -62% -67% 0.275 $90,416,848 IPT Impact Minerals 10% 0% -21% 57% 0.011 $31,511,743 SYA Sayona Mining Ltd 9% 13% -60% -63% 0.07 $730,824,017 SGQ St George Min Ltd 9% 6% -13% -49% 0.035 $33,460,375 TON Triton Min Ltd 9% 14% -29% -33% 0.024 $35,911,271 EMS Eastern Metals 9% 13% -33% -51% 0.036 $2,884,919 RAS Ragusa Minerals Ltd 9% -14% -45% -69% 0.036 $5,133,556 AL8 Alderan Resource Ltd 9% -14% -8% -14% 0.006 $5,534,307 GW1 Greenwing Resources 9% 25% -46% -55% 0.125 $23,523,950 PL3 Patagonia Lithium 9% -7% -32% 0% 0.125 $6,386,705 VUL Vulcan Energy 9% 14% -33% -56% 2.79 $490,408,073 LRD Lordresourceslimited 8% -19% -28% -61% 0.065 $2,339,324 LRD Lordresourceslimited 8% -19% -28% -61% 0.065 $2,339,324 RDN Raiden Resources Ltd 8% -5% 310% 763% 0.041 $106,175,499 QPM Queensland Pacific 8% -2% -45% -50% 0.055 $110,689,717 LPM Lithium Plus 8% -17% 28% -7% 0.345 $30,955,752 MHK Metalhawk. 8% -10% 8% -15% 0.14 $13,420,950 CAI Calidus Resources 8% 8% 26% -20% 0.215 $131,531,381 NVA Nova Minerals Ltd 7% 33% 26% -46% 0.365 $75,920,386 SBR Sabre Resources 7% -14% 19% -18% 0.031 $12,311,018 OBM Ora Banda Mining Ltd 7% 2% 96% 192% 0.245 $409,624,769 BUR Burleyminerals 6% 6% -28% -25% 0.165 $16,713,965 DTM Dart Mining NL 6% 6% -58% -69% 0.017 $3,868,854 LKE Lake Resources 6% 2% -56% -83% 0.1325 $184,917,812 CHR Charger Metals 6% -27% -64% -60% 0.18 $11,997,871 WR1 Winsome Resources 6% -4% -33% -11% 1.09 $195,126,804 AZI Altamin Limited 6% 4% -28% -30% 0.055 $23,546,707 MLS Metals Australia 6% 6% 9% -17% 0.037 $23,089,339 ASN Anson Resources Ltd 6% -2% -8% -23% 0.1425 $180,003,484 DLI Delta Lithium 5% 7% -42% 4% 0.48 $323,409,419 PLN Pioneer Lithium 5% -26% 0% 0% 0.195 $5,685,000 CRR Critical Resources 5% -13% -50% -53% 0.02 $37,334,856 NMT Neometals Ltd 5% 8% -57% -74% 0.205 $130,764,966 PMT Patriotbatterymetals 5% 8% -34% 51% 1.135 $514,633,556 ALY Alchemy Resource Ltd 5% 5% -34% -54% 0.0105 $11,780,763 WYX Western Yilgarn NL 5% 5% -19% -19% 0.105 $4,965,750 JBY James Bay Minerals 5% -15% 0% 0% 0.315 $10,220,175 JNO Juno 5% -9% 52% 10% 0.105 $20,013,979 PNN Power Minerals Ltd 5% -6% -42% -58% 0.225 $18,348,981 LEL Lithenergy 5% -5% -34% -26% 0.57 $59,230,750 LNR Lanthanein Resources 5% 92% -23% -45% 0.0115 $14,832,837 TMB Tambourahmetals 4% -25% 33% 14% 0.12 $9,123,439 TMB Tambourahmetals 4% -25% 33% 14% 0.12 $9,123,439 MQR Marquee Resource Ltd 4% -4% -42% -30% 0.026 $10,747,994 PLS Pilbara Min Ltd 4% 10% -19% 6% 3.98 $11,887,398,383 AAJ Aruma Resources Ltd 4% -13% -37% -49% 0.027 $5,316,071 MIN Mineral Resources. 4% 16% -1% -9% 70.53 $13,663,049,960 MM1 Midasmineralsltd 4% 12% -59% -28% 0.145 $12,144,614 THR Thor Energy PLC 3% 7% -25% -50% 0.03 $5,581,090 WES Wesfarmers Limited 3% 10% 17% 26% 57.62 $64,693,471,823 ZEO Zeotech Limited 3% -13% -27% -30% 0.033 $55,469,538 CXO Core Lithium 3% -1% -70% -74% 0.2675 $534,233,886 RON Roninresourcesltd 3% -18% 16% 9% 0.18 $6,812,627 FTL Firetail Resources 3% -8% -30% -52% 0.077 $11,465,728 A11 Atlantic Lithium 3% -23% -25% -34% 0.41 $249,017,274 GL1 Globallith 2% -7% -24% -36% 1.18 $313,619,685 INF Infinity Lithium 2% -4% 7% -20% 0.096 $46,259,209 PGD Peregrine Gold 2% -6% -11% -36% 0.245 $15,015,846 FG1 Flynngold 2% -31% -13% -48% 0.052 $7,577,661 MMC Mitremining 2% 0% -13% -7% 0.26 $15,305,659 LPI Lithium Pwr Int Ltd 2% 2% 88% 26% 0.555 $350,664,412 FRS Forrestaniaresources 2% -8% -68% -80% 0.0285 $4,530,001 RIO Rio Tinto Limited 2% 9% 19% 17% 136.57 $50,359,191,591 IGO IGO Limited 1% 9% -40% -32% 9.11 $6,853,273,708 REC Rechargemetals 1% -15% -75% -31% 0.093 $10,578,438 AVZ AVZ Minerals Ltd 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.78 $2,752,409,203 LIT Lithium Australia 0% 3% -9% -33% 0.03 $36,665,750 AKE Allkem Limited 0% 16% -39% -13% 9.83 $6,304,350,967 RLC Reedy Lagoon Corp. 0% -17% -14% -48% 0.005 $3,097,704 TKL Traka Resources 0% -5% -36% -52% 0.003 $2,625,988 GSM Golden State Mining 0% -17% -67% -65% 0.015 $4,190,559 TEM Tempest Minerals 0% 0% -38% -65% 0.008 $4,091,068 KGD Kula Gold Limited 0% -50% -12% -40% 0.015 $6,290,487 ENT Enterprise Metals 0% 33% 0% -60% 0.004 $3,207,884 STM Sunstone Metals Ltd 0% -13% -46% -62% 0.014 $52,316,023 EFE Eastern Resources 0% -20% -20% -72% 0.008 $9,935,572 SRZ Stellar Resources 0% 0% -38% -38% 0.008 $8,043,185 AOA Ausmon Resorces 0% 0% -14% -57% 0.003 $3,020,998 SRI Sipa Resources Ltd 0% 19% 25% -22% 0.025 $5,703,953 RGL Riversgold 0% -25% -20% -60% 0.012 $10,644,276 EPM Eclipse Metals 0% -11% -50% -50% 0.008 $16,500,434 MNS Magnis Energy Tech 0% -13% -70% -89% 0.042 $50,378,922 M2R Miramar 0% 11% -40% -72% 0.021 $3,126,260 WMC Wiluna Mining Corp 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.205 $74,238,031 LLL Leolithiumlimited 0% 0% -53% 4% 0.505 $498,553,663 RMX Red Mount Min Ltd 0% -14% -25% -40% 0.003 $8,020,728 ENT Enterprise Metals 0% 33% 0% -60% 0.004 $3,207,884 XTC XTC Lithium Limited 0% 0% -17% -67% 0.2 $17,528,272 IEC Intra Energy Corp 0% -25% -40% -63% 0.003 $5,812,736 ICL Iceni Gold 0% -16% -25% -34% 0.053 $12,472,571 TMX Terrain Minerals 0% 25% -29% -17% 0.005 $6,767,139 MHC Manhattan Corp Ltd 0% 0% -50% -27% 0.004 $11,747,919 ANX Anax Metals Ltd 0% 7% -52% -43% 0.03 $14,427,529 ADG Adelong Gold Limited 0% -17% -38% -29% 0.005 $3,498,278 PFE Panteraminerals 0% -13% -40% -53% 0.052 $6,896,373 CXB0 ASRA MINERALS LTD. 0% -11% 0% -59% 0.00004 $6,515,983 PFE Panteraminerals 0% -13% -40% -53% 0.052 $6,896,373 PSC Prospect Res Ltd -1% 1% -45% -27% 0.088 $41,236,545 PLL Piedmont Lithium Inc -1% 9% -51% -35% 0.42 $158,083,824 AZS Azure Minerals -1% -7% 145% 1540% 3.69 $1,697,114,428 FBM Future Battery -1% -3% -41% 34% 0.071 $38,964,187 WC8 Wildcat Resources -2% -9% 467% 2733% 0.68 $831,058,844 TOR Torque Met -2% 22% 57% 22% 0.22 $28,913,298 TOR Torque Met -2% 22% 57% 22% 0.22 $28,913,298 EMC Everest Metals Corp -2% -2% -58% 1% 0.08 $13,062,649 EMC Everest Metals Corp -2% -2% -58% 1% 0.08 $13,062,649 ADV Ardiden Ltd -3% -3% -42% -42% 0.175 $10,940,564 MXR Maximus Resources -3% -37% 13% -15% 0.034 $11,221,202 LLO Lion One Metals Ltd -3% -1% 26% -15% 0.995 $14,142,041 AZL Arizona Lithium Ltd -3% -21% -3% -50% 0.031 $113,858,997 GRE Greentechmetals -3% -7% -20% 218% 0.445 $31,491,708 LRV Larvottoresources -4% -17% -39% -49% 0.072 $14,874,940 QXR Qx Resources Limited -4% -20% 26% -43% 0.024 $25,531,791 CY5 Cygnus Metals Ltd -4% -14% -56% -68% 0.12 $39,360,484 RAG Ragnar Metals Ltd -4% 0% -7% 101% 0.023 $11,375,543 OCN Oceanalithiumlimited -4% -4% -71% -67% 0.115 $6,369,180 DAL Dalaroometalsltd -4% -37% -73% -78% 0.022 $1,820,500 MAN Mandrake Res Ltd -5% 5% -9% 5% 0.042 $26,477,677 AX8 Accelerate Resources -5% -18% 105% 78% 0.041 $24,070,274 VMC Venus Metals Cor Ltd -5% -9% -9% 27% 0.1 $18,972,868 DRE Dreadnought Resources Ltd -5% -8% -43% -72% 0.0295 $104,372,189 VSR Voltaic Strategic -5% -14% -79% -19% 0.019 $9,178,974 TG6 Tgmetalslimited -5% -52% 241% 226% 0.375 $20,823,174 NKL Nickelxltd -5% -38% -45% -54% 0.037 $3,249,161 AM7 Arcadia Minerals -5% -14% -37% -64% 0.073 $7,960,657 NIS Nickelsearch -5% -32% 20% -55% 0.071 $15,588,599 PAT Patriot Lithium -6% -11% -37% -36% 0.17 $12,333,084 SCN Scorpion Minerals -6% -27% -64% -54% 0.032 $13,512,054 MRR Minrex Resources Ltd -6% 0% 14% -50% 0.016 $18,442,748 SCN Scorpion Minerals -6% -27% -64% -54% 0.032 $13,512,054 HAW Hawthorn Resources -6% 12% -34% -19% 0.093 $31,156,452 LPD Lepidico Ltd -6% -12% -32% -53% 0.0075 $61,106,464 SLM Solismineralsltd -6% -19% -86% 100% 0.15 $11,382,022 CC9 Chariot Corporation -7% -10% 0% 0% 0.57 $39,599,047 IR1 Irismetals -7% -24% -46% -21% 0.915 $119,773,608 KAI Kairos Minerals Ltd -7% -13% -19% -33% 0.014 $36,692,771 LM1 Leeuwin Metals Ltd -7% -30% -65% 0% 0.14 $6,442,188 FL1 First Lithium Ltd -7% -26% 194% 194% 0.53 $36,076,609 BYH Bryah Resources Ltd -7% -7% -19% -49% 0.013 $5,636,894 TKM Trek Metals Ltd -8% -24% -60% -51% 0.037 $20,523,074 BMM Balkanminingandmin -8% -11% -41% -64% 0.12 $7,814,456 EG1 Evergreenlithium -8% -19% -47% 0% 0.175 $9,840,250 KTA Krakatoa Resources -8% -25% 38% -25% 0.033 $16,995,860 OLY Olympio Metals Ltd -9% -25% -49% -28% 0.105 $6,677,947 IMI Infinitymining -10% 17% 17% -49% 0.14 $11,628,361 AS2 Askarimetalslimited -11% -11% -46% -64% 0.155 $13,606,287 A8G Australasian Metals -12% -12% 30% -21% 0.15 $8,860,484 ZNC Zenith Minerals Ltd -12% 11% 67% -43% 0.15 $52,857,132 KOB Kobaresourceslimited -13% -9% -55% -50% 0.07 $7,379,167 ASR Asra Minerals Ltd -13% -7% 0% -65% 0.007 $11,402,970 SUM Summitminerals -13% -20% -34% -34% 0.096 $4,718,056 L1M Lightning Minerals -14% -20% -25% -27% 0.12 $5,911,509 1MC Morella Corporation -17% -17% -38% -58% 0.005 $33,983,397 LIS Lisenergylimited -18% -20% -31% -48% 0.165 $115,236,041 EMH European Metals Hldg -18% -29% -52% -38% 0.395 $53,693,553 AVW Avira Resources Ltd -25% 0% -40% -50% 0.0015 $3,200,685 LSR Lodestar Minerals -25% -25% -25% -40% 0.003 $8,093,589

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