Eye on Lithium: Price slump no dampener for Allkem and Livent; Asra, Ronin and Infinity rise

Slumping “spot” lithium prices appear to be no deterrent for Allkem and Livent’s potential lithium deal of the year
And maybe, just maybe we’re near the bottom of the market for the leading battery metal commodity?
Asra Minerals, Infinity Lithium, Ronin Resources and Riversgold among the ASX’s bigger gainers today

All your lithium news, Monday November 13.

It was all about lithium on the ASX earlier in the day, at least in terms of resources gainers – with Infinity Lithium, Ronin Resources, TG Metals and others all pegging their share prices firmly in the right direction.

Did local pegmatite pokers continue to fare well into the arvo today? Some certainly did, some certainly didn’t. We’ll tabulate that full answer for you below.

But first, let’s cover off a few things of note regarding some of the bigger players in town in this sector. Because there’s been plenty of movement at a few significant stations just lately, particularly regarding mergers and acquisitions.

What’s doing in major M&A lithium action?

Allkem and Livent

Headlining potential blockbuster mergers this week, is $5.64bn market-capped Aussie-based lithium producer Allkem (ASX:AKE) as it furthers a plan to get a potential king-making deal with American lithium-production titan Livent over the line.

The companies are looking to combine in a union that would create the world’s third biggest player by lithium volumes (as Stockhead’s Josh Chiat notes, “once all their myriad growth options are brought to market by later this decade”).

It would put the merger, to be called Arcadium Lithium, behind Albemarle and SQM, and ahead of China’s Ganfeng.

If successful, the merger would see Allkem’s ASX and TSX shares delisted by January 5, a day after the new company’s shares begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Its CDIs will be traded on the ASX.

Per a report in The Australian, slumping lithium commodity prices this year are no deterrent for the two companies. In fact, the volatile lithium prices reportedly only strengthen the case for the merger.

“This is not a deal about the lithium price,” said Livent chief exec Paul Graves on a tour to sweet talk Aussie investors, adding: “Sometimes you need a little bit of historical context. We see some of the prices being thrown around – I think one of the research analysts recently came out and said they see pricing falling to marginal cost, which is US$15 a kilo in their calculation.

“Livent has been in the market for a long, long time. We’ve never managed to average US$15 a kilo up until the last year or two. That’s a historically high number.”

#Livent and #Allkem set to merge, creating the world’s third-largest #lithium producer, Arcadium Lithium. Allkem shareholders to decide on the $10.6B deal on Dec 19, with potential for significant industry impact amid fluctuating lithium demand and prices. #Business… pic.twitter.com/a7utow2A02

— Lavrion Mining (@LavrionMining) November 12, 2023

Allkem shareholders meet on December 19 in Perth to vote on the merger. On Friday, as Josh reported, Allkem and the merger got the vote of confidence from an independent expert report from Kroll Australia, which said the deal was ‘fair’ and in the best interests of Allkem shareholders, in the absence of a superior proposal.

Wrote Josh:

“They value Allkem at an equity value of between $12.76-15.41, well above the $9.22 trading value of the stock today, and placed the combined equity value of the group at between $9.79 and $11.43 billion.

That’s well below the roughly $16b value trumpeted when it was originally announced roughly six months ago, but also comes after Allkem and Livent shares tumbled 26.1% and 38.2% lower over the period as lithium prices have dropped significantly.

Allkem shareholders will emerge with 56.1% of the merged entity once the deal is done, while Livent – spawned from within lithium battery pioneer FMC Lithium – will hold 43.9%.”

Graves also reportedly pointed to the recent billionaire interest in WA’s lithium hotspots as testament to the lithium sector remaining in good health.

Hot stock Azure Minerals (ASX:AZS) , for instance, continues to retain great interest with Mineral Resources’ Chris Ellison and Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting having built up significant stakes in the company, amid lithium giant SQM’s $1.63b takeover bid for the company.

Then, of course, we’ve had the Gina Rinehart block of the attempted Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) takeover from Albemarle, coming in hot for the company, reaching its ownership objective of at least 19.9% of the company. Meanwhile, Ellison’s MinRes now owns a fifth of Wildcat Resources (ASX:WC8) increasing its stake as the Pilbara-focused explorer keeps hitting good results at its Tabba Tabba project near Port Hedland.

Annnd… last but not least in this section – news just in today, Delta Lithium (ASX:DLI) had something of a highly significant raise today.

Per our Monsters of Rock column, which has more details:

Early doors Gina Rinehart and Ellison took tentative steps into the land grab by taking up stakes in Delta Lithium (ASX:DLI), owner of the ~15Mt Mt Ida deposit near Menzies in WA’s Goldfields and the frontier Yinnetharra project in WA’s untapped Gascoyne region along its Mid-West coast.

Meanwhile, re lithium price slumping… brighter days ahead?

Lithium prices are yet to arrest their slump, as you can see from this…

2023-11-10#Lithium Carbonate 99.5% Min China Spot

Price: $21,317.80
1 day: $-278.66 (-1.29%)
YTD: -71.07%#Spodumene Concentrate (6%, CIF China)

Price: $2,050.00
1 day: $-5 (-0.24%)
YTD: -64.81%

Sponsored by @SiennaResources $SIE $SNNAF https://t.co/XhUne7xCmg

— Lithium Price Bot (@LithiumPriceBot) November 10, 2023

That said, have they merely just corrected back to a “more reasonable level” and are we somewhere near the bottoming out, per this analytical take?

Boom & Bust

We’re between depression and hope pic.twitter.com/kXhBEZBkvU

— BatteryMiner (@thelithiumminer) November 11, 2023

EV battery prices are predicted to fall faster than forecast, as prices for lithium and other metals for batteries decline, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The price drop is expected to increase consumer demand for EVs. https://t.co/ngSBqZfqEe pic.twitter.com/iiC1hKWYKA

— Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) November 3, 2023

ASX lithium form guide:

Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop. (Note: figures accurate per ASX at about 3pm.)

Stocks missing from this list?

Email [email protected]

CODE COMPANY PRICE DAILY RTN % 1 WEEK % 1 MTH % YTD % MARKET CAP ADV Ardiden Ltd 0.005 0% -9% -17% 0% $13,441,677 AGY Argosy Minerals Ltd 0.145 -9% -15% -17% -43% $224,705,200 1MC Morella Corporation 0.0065 -7% 18% 18% -1% $43,145,149 AML Aeon Metals Ltd. 0.008 -11% -27% -47% -2% $9,867,606 ASN Anson Resources Ltd 0.17 6% -8% 21% -2% $205,718,267 AVZ AVZ Minerals Ltd 0.78 0% 0% 0% 0% $2,752,409,203 CXO Core Lithium 0.3675 1% -5% 1% -66% $779,981,474 EMH European Metals Hldg 0.63 1% -4% 1% -1% $79,296,075 ESS Essential Metals Ltd 0.5 0% 0% 4% 18% $135,278,382 EUR European Lithium Ltd 0.077 7% 3% 8% 0% $100,385,221 GLN Galan Lithium Ltd 0.57 -3% -12% -10% -50% $206,635,034 INF Infinity Lithium 0.1175 38% 38% 35% 0% $39,320,328 INR Ioneer Ltd 0.145 -9% -17% -28% -24% $337,764,212 JRL Jindalee Resources 1.0775 0% -13% -31% -81% $64,838,751 LIT Lithium Australia 0.033 0% 6% 0% -1% $40,332,325 LKE Lake Resources 0.1675 -1% 2% -9% -63% $241,815,600 LPD Lepidico Ltd 0.009 -10% 0% -18% -1% $76,383,079 LPI Lithium Pwr Int Ltd 0.535 2% 2% 57% 10% $333,912,320 LTR Liontown Resources 1.48 -1% -11% -51% 16% $3,609,613,215 MIN Mineral Resources. 57.67 -1% -6% -5% -1953% $11,389,128,074 MLS Metals Australia 0.036 -3% -5% 13% -1% $23,089,339 AKE Allkem Limited 8.72 -3% -9% -22% -252% $5,753,891,637 PLL Piedmont Lithium Inc 0.4 -5% -12% -26% -25% $154,407,456 PLS Pilbara Min Ltd 3.45 -2% -8% -13% -30% $10,563,213,937 QPM Queensland Pacific 0.053 -4% -12% -18% -6% $110,687,655 PSC Prospect Res Ltd 0.098 2% 8% 29% -2% $44,376,908 RLC Reedy Lagoon Corp. 0.005 0% 25% -17% 0% $3,083,418 SYA Sayona Mining Ltd 0.0785 -3% -8% -14% -11% $833,756,977 TKL Traka Resources 0.0045 13% -10% -10% 0% $3,501,317 TON Triton Min Ltd 0.024 -4% -17% 14% -1% $39,033,990 VUL Vulcan Energy 2.37 -2% 1% -13% -396% $405,688,075 GL1 Globallith 1.19 -3% -9% -1% -66% $319,723,985 BMM Balkanminingandmin 0.13 -7% 8% -28% -20% $9,633,004 LEL Lithenergy 0.59 -2% -16% 4% -18% $61,806,000 ARN Aldoro Resources 0.083 0% -12% -17% -8% $11,173,771 NMT Neometals Ltd 0.25 0% 2% -30% -55% $138,326,984 IGO IGO Limited 8.835 -2% -9% -23% -463% $6,792,692,283 AAJ Aruma Resources Ltd 0.032 -6% 0% 0% -2% $6,694,311 PAM Pan Asia Metals 0.15 0% 0% -27% -26% $25,053,215 AX8 Accelerate Resources 0.051 4% 38% 65% 3% $23,128,108 AM7 Arcadia Minerals 0.089 0% 5% -15% -12% $9,705,459 AS2 Askarimetalslimited 0.18 3% 3% 0% -26% $13,483,787 BYH Bryah Resources Ltd 0.02 -5% 54% 54% -1% $7,530,711 EMS Eastern Metals 0.028 0% -7% -10% -5% $2,307,935 FG1 Flynngold 0.085 -4% 27% 25% -2% $12,138,050 FRS Forrestaniaresources 0.03 0% -3% -14% -11% $3,069,048 GSM Golden State Mining 0.019 -24% -5% -49% -2% $4,777,207 IMI Infinitymining 0.12 0% 4% -20% -16% $9,343,166 LRV Larvottoresources 0.115 5% -23% -8% -5% $7,398,019 MMC Mitremining 0.225 7% 0% -15% -6% $9,523,521 RAG Ragnar Metals Ltd 0.024 4% 4% 0% 1% $10,901,562 CTN Catalina Resources 0.0035 0% -13% -13% -1% $4,334,704 TMB Tambourahmetals 0.14 -10% 4% -7% 4% $12,855,755 TEM Tempest Minerals 0.011 10% 38% 38% -1% $5,113,835 EMC Everest Metals Corp 0.094 4% -1% -25% 2% $11,995,480 WCN White Cliff Min Ltd 0.011 -4% 10% -8% 0% $14,455,713 WML Woomera Mining Ltd 0.026 4% 117% 160% 1% $29,842,364 AZL Arizona Lithium Ltd 0.041 14% 128% 173% -2% $119,476,297 CRR Critical Resources 0.031 -9% 19% -11% -1% $60,446,909 KGD Kula Gold Limited 0.014 0% 12% 17% -1% $5,224,967 LRS Latin Resources Ltd 0.23 -4% -15% -19% 13% $665,401,488 PNN Power Minerals Ltd 0.245 -2% -9% 0% -29% $21,541,545 WR1 Winsome Resources 1.235 -1% -13% 7% 1% $221,105,830 KZR Kalamazoo Resources 0.125 14% 28% 32% -9% $18,850,642 MTM MTM Critical Metals 0.023 0% -4% -36% -6% $2,284,753 QXR Qx Resources Limited 0.03 7% 30% 20% -1% $30,960,380 SCN Scorpion Minerals 0.056 0% 10% -10% -1% $19,415,547 AZI Altamin Limited 0.059 -3% -5% -2% -2% $23,894,722 ENT Enterprise Metals 0.004 0% 33% 0% -1% $3,197,884 KAI Kairos Minerals Ltd 0.016 0% -6% -27% 0% $41,934,595 STM Sunstone Metals Ltd 0.016 -11% -6% 0% -2% $55,475,728 PGD Peregrine Gold 0.325 8% 8% 12% -6% $16,883,471 AVW Avira Resources Ltd 0.002 0% 100% 33% 0% $4,267,580 NVA Nova Minerals Ltd 0.25 -7% -4% 2% -43% $56,940,289 GT1 Greentechnology 0.39 -5% -7% -14% -44% $87,320,784 BNR Bulletin Res Ltd 0.155 -3% -6% 41% 6% $46,974,576 CAI Calidus Resources 0.17 0% -13% 13% -10% $103,740,291 MRR Minrex Resources Ltd 0.0155 3% 19% -3% -2% $16,273,013 A8G Australasian Metals 0.175 -3% 3% -15% -2% $9,381,689 EFE Eastern Resources 0.012 0% 50% 33% -2% $14,903,358 MQR Marquee Resource Ltd 0.033 3% 32% 22% 0% $13,228,300 SRZ Stellar Resources 0.009 0% 13% -18% 0% $9,883,678 LSR Lodestar Minerals 0.004 -11% -20% -20% 0% $9,105,288 NWM Norwest Minerals 0.0325 -2% 7% 25% -2% $9,489,794 AOA Ausmon Resorces 0.003 0% 0% 0% 0% $3,020,998 VKA Viking Mines Ltd 0.01 0% 0% -5% 0% $10,252,584 IPT Impact Minerals 0.013 0% 18% 18% 1% $37,241,151 SRI Sipa Resources Ltd 0.021 0% 5% 11% -1% $4,791,321 VMC Venus Metals Cor Ltd 0.1 -5% -9% -20% 2% $19,921,512 RGL Riversgold 0.011 22% 22% -21% -2% $8,561,353 ZNC Zenith Minerals Ltd 0.185 12% 85% 85% -8% $58,142,846 RAS Ragusa Minerals Ltd 0.049 0% 17% 23% -7% $6,987,341 G88 Golden Mile Res Ltd 0.025 -4% 19% 25% 0% $8,564,127 EPM Eclipse Metals 0.0105 5% 5% -13% -1% $20,438,042 EVR Ev Resources Ltd 0.012 20% 9% 9% 0% $9,447,798 WC8 Wildcat Resources 0.8025 0% -4% 98% 78% $832,679,604 MNS Magnis Energy Tech 0.047 -4% -41% -36% -32% $58,775,409 RIO Rio Tinto Limited 120.38 0% -2% 7% 397% $44,701,856,490 THR Thor Energy PLC 0.024 -4% -11% -14% -4% $4,662,307 YAR Yari Minerals Ltd 0.016 0% -6% 7% 0% $7,717,725 MXR Maximus Resources 0.044 0% 10% 57% 0% $14,106,654 DRE Dreadnought Resources Ltd 0.0345 -1% 1% -23% -7% $120,993,086 MM1 Midasmineralsltd 0.155 -3% 0% -14% -5% $13,879,559 M2R Miramar 0.022 0% 16% -52% -5% $3,275,130 LLI Loyal Lithium Ltd 0.435 5% -8% -23% 14% $33,789,764 LRD Lordresourceslimited 0.069 0% 0% 1% -10% $2,562,116 WMC Wiluna Mining Corp 0.205 0% 0% 0% 0% $74,238,031 AUN Aurumin 0.024 4% -4% -17% -4% $7,324,191 ZEO Zeotech Limited 0.043 -17% -17% -14% 0% $89,877,999 ALY Alchemy Resource Ltd 0.011 0% 0% 10% -1% $12,958,839 LIS Lisenergylimited 0.22 5% 0% -8% -10% $134,442,048 GW1 Greenwing Resources 0.15 11% 15% 11% -13% $23,523,950 KTA Krakatoa Resources 0.038 12% 41% 90% -1% $14,786,529 TYX Tyranna Res Ltd 0.0165 3% -13% -3% -1% $52,582,805 DAF Discovery Alaska Ltd 0.017 -6% 13% -19% -2% $4,216,225 FTL Firetail Resources 0.099 0% -6% -1% -6% $14,741,650 IR1 Irismetals 1.4 -9% -12% -14% 24% $187,009,872 LNR Lanthanein Resources 0.007 0% 8% -13% -1% $7,851,029 DAL Dalaroometalsltd 0.036 0% 20% -31% -6% $2,937,600 TKM Trek Metals Ltd 0.051 4% 0% 59% -3% $24,384,364 CY5 Cygnus Metals Ltd 0.155 0% -6% 3% -23% $44,956,609 TUL Tulla Resources 0 0% -100% -100% -33% $118,262,971 WES Wesfarmers Limited 52.97 0% 1% 2% 706% $60,192,318,131 LLL Leolithiumlimited 0.505 0% 0% 0% 2% $498,553,663 OCN Oceanalithiumlimited 0.125 4% 9% -26% -22% $6,369,180 A11 Atlantic Lithium 0.39 -3% -9% -20% -23% $244,896,664 CMD Cassius Mining Ltd 0.031 0% -11% -3% 1% $15,398,574 VSR Voltaic Strategic 0.02 0% -5% -13% 0% $9,662,078 SGQ St George Min Ltd 0.039 3% -13% 5% -3% $35,865,849 LLO Lion One Metals Ltd 1 1% 2% -9% -17% $14,541,952 PAT Patriot Lithium 0.2 -7% -5% 18% -7% $13,735,813 PL3 Patagonia Lithium 0.14 8% 17% 8% 0% $6,370,455 BUR Burleyminerals 0.215 0% -4% 54% -1% $21,778,803 CHR Charger Metals 0.35 6% 30% 192% -10% $20,497,741 RMX Red Mount Min Ltd 0.005 0% 25% 0% 0% $13,367,880 DLI Delta Lithium 0.52 0% -10% -21% 5% $277,557,604 LM1 Leeuwin Metals Ltd 0.26 -2% -4% -16% 0% $11,868,025 ENT Enterprise Metals 0.004 0% 33% 0% -1% $3,197,884 FIN FIN Resources Ltd 0.031 0% 0% 55% 1% $20,124,230 DTM Dart Mining NL 0.021 11% 17% -3% -3% $3,683,066 NIS Nickelsearch 0.084 -9% 35% 62% -7% $14,747,354 EG1 Evergreenlithium 0.185 0% -8% -26% 0% $10,402,550 MAN Mandrake Res Ltd 0.035 0% 3% -8% -1% $20,956,597 FBM Future Battery 0.084 -2% -7% -24% 3% $43,851,915 XTC Xantippe Res Ltd 0.001 0% 0% 0% 0% $17,528,005 LPM Lithium Plus 0.475 -5% -1% 7% 11% $42,994,100 KOB Kobaresourceslimited 0.082 -4% 22% -1% -6% $8,960,417 EMC Everest Metals Corp 0.094 4% -1% -25% 2% $11,995,480 LRD Lordresourceslimited 0.069 0% 0% 1% -10% $2,562,116 IEC Intra Energy Corp 0.004 0% 0% 0% 0% $6,643,126 REC Rechargemetals 0.135 0% 4% -4% 0% $15,032,516 SLM Solismineralsltd 0.205 -5% -20% -21% 13% $16,737,472 AZS Azure Minerals 4 0% 4% 90% 378% $1,832,949,476 DYM Dynamicmetalslimited 0.2 0% -2% 8% 0% $7,000,000 TOR Torque Met 0.175 -8% -8% -42% -1% $22,928,252 SBR Sabre Resources 0.037 -5% -5% 12% 0% $13,930,362 ICL Iceni Gold 0.061 3% 7% -14% -2% $14,151,571 TMX Terrain Minerals 0.004 0% -20% -20% 0% $5,413,711 MHC Manhattan Corp Ltd 0.004 0% 0% -20% 0% $11,747,919 MHK Metalhawk. 0.18 -8% 50% 105% 2% $15,360,347 NKL Nickelxltd 0.065 0% 16% 3% -2% $5,707,986 TMB Tambourahmetals 0.14 -10% 4% -7% 4% $12,855,755 ANX Anax Metals Ltd 0.029 0% -6% -17% -2% $13,946,611 PMT Patriotbatterymetals 1.0775 -1% -7% -2% 33% $426,400,986 BM8 Battery Age Minerals 0.19 -5% -12% -24% -31% $17,827,378 L1M Lightning Minerals 0.135 0% 8% 4% -3% $5,497,884 ADG Adelong Gold Limited 0.0065 8% 8% -7% 0% $3,577,934 TOR Torque Met 0.175 -8% -8% -42% -1% $22,928,252 AL8 Alderan Resource Ltd 0.0085 -35% -29% -35% 0% $8,017,030 OZM Ozaurum Resources 0.125 -14% 26% 26% 6% $23,018,750 FL1 First Lithium Ltd 0.5 14% 30% 85% 32% $30,822,733 PLN Pioneer Lithium 0.295 -2% -6% -16% 0% $8,527,500 WYX Western Yilgarn NL 0.11 0% -12% 15% -2% $5,462,325 RDN Raiden Resources Ltd 0.045 -6% 15% 105% 4% $112,121,528 PFE Panteraminerals 0.059 -4% -2% 5% -5% $6,584,962 GRE Greentechmetals 0.68 -17% 25% 119% 54% $52,790,266 OLY Olympio Metals Ltd 0.165 10% 10% 14% 2% $9,539,925 SUM Summitminerals 0.13 4% 38% 30% -2% $5,957,141 JBY James Bay Minerals 0.32 3% 3% -4% 0% $10,057,950 SCN Scorpion Minerals 0.056 0% 10% -10% -1% $19,415,547 JNO Juno 0.082 3% 3% 5% -1% $12,848,240 CC9 Chariot Corporation 0.33 8% 3% 0% 0% $22,366,128 ASR Asra Minerals 0.014 75% 100% 75% -30% $20,250,000 OBM Ora Banda Mining Ltd 0.175 3% 9% 79% 9% $289,925,628

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