Gold has been on a tear this quarter, punching through record highs despite jobs data in the US suggesting interest rate cuts could be delayed.
With bullion fetching a touch under US$2400/oz ($3700/oz Aussie), margins will be strong for ASX-listed gold miners and their international counterparts.
However, stocks are only beginning to respond to record high gold prices. This is a buying opportunity, the experts say.
WA broker Euroz Hartleys has indicated that gold mining equities could re-rate as results are released for the March Quarter. These results, which should come with a bump in free cash flow for many miners, are due over the next week or two.
This is what analysts think will happen to some of your favourite gold mining stocks.
EVOLUTION MINING (ASX:EVN)
Reporting Date: 17/04 (earnings call: 10:30am AEST)
Market Cap: $7.8 billion
What the experts say:
“EVN has been a little underwhelming despite great management and assets. It has had issues with rain. Cowal and Mt Rawdon have seen production reduced but guidance remains. More upside as it recovers from drop recently.”
Marcus Today.
“We cut our Group gold production to 178koz (from 187koz) in MarQ’24 on lower production at Mt Rawdon (weather) and Cowal (maintenance) and model an AISC of A$1,442/oz.
“… we do not expect EVN to hit FY24E production guidance, with our forecast at 713koz (vs VA 725koz) below the low end of guidance at ~750koz.”
Canaccord Genuity.
“Of the larger cap names EVN (Buy) remains our preference to NST (Neutral) on near-term FCF, and with exposure to further increases in copper pricing (~30% of EVN’s revenue over FY24-26E).
“EVN has the strongest near-term EBITDA growth in the sector in our view, supported by copper production/pricing.”
Goldman Sachs.
BELLEVUE (ASX:BGL)
Reporting Date: 18/04
Market Cap: $2.27 billion
What the experts say:
“BGL expects to declare commercial production in the JuneQ.
“The GDX index [VanEck Gold Miners AUD ETF (ASX: GDX)] rebalance announcement will occur on 14 June. If BGL has declared commercial production by then, it should be added to the index. The GDX could buy ~5% of BGL shares in our view.
“Our new combined price target is A$2.10/sh.”
RBC Capital Markets.
GOLD ROAD (ASX:GOR)
Reporting Date: 19/04
Market Cap: $1.84 billion
What the experts say:
“(GOR) again has had some rain issues at 50% owned Gruyere. Unhedged, strong cash position, debt-free, record net profit after tax. It has rallied hard from the bottom recently, but there should be more to come.”
Marcus Today.
“GOR pre-released Q1 gold and final cash and bullion. A rain affected quarter reduced mining and lifted the percentage of stockpiled ore milled. Physical metrics and costs were not given.
“CY24 guidance for gold and AISC has been maintained but is expected to be in the worse halves of both ranges.”
RBC Capital Markets.
NORTHERN STAR (ASX:NST)
Reporting Date: 23/04
Market Cap: $17.5 billion
What the experts say:
“This one has become the go-to for investors looking for large cap exposure. That is unlikely to change.
“Strong balance sheet with $229m in net cash. Underlying 1HFY 24 EBITDA of $889m. $702m cash earnings. Share buyback only half completed. Class act and global leader.”
Marcus Today.
“NST has exceptional leverage to rising gold prices, owing to the scale of its operations. At the beginning of FY24 we modelled relatively benign FCF (A$144m) in FY25E for NST, which is now comfortably +A$1.3bn.
“In our view, this offers the company good optionality around deleveraging, special dividends, and potential M&A.”
Canaccord Genuity.
“A robust Q3 despite heavy WA rainfall with better milling availability and grades expected in Q4. Key remaining Q3 details include milling ramp-up at Thunderbox and Pogo grades.
Overall, we expect few surprises in the full Q3 release. The net result is no change to our A$15.00/sh price target.”
RBC Capital Markets.
“Of our covered Australian gold companies, NST/EVN/GOR have the best gold production outlook in our view, with production growing in nearly each of the next 5 years, or averaging c.5% CAGR.”
Goldman Sachs.
REGIS RESOURCES (ASX:RRL)
Reporting Date: 24/04
Market Cap: $1.66 billion
What the experts say:
“We expect that … rainfall and delayed repair to Laverton shire roads could put RRL towards the bottom of that 90-95koz Q3 guidance range.
“We forecast 90koz vs consensus at 96koz, which might not yet fully incorporate the initial guidance range, or the ongoing rainfall. We expect the market will have implicitly priced a bottom end of guidance range result.
“We forecast the [McPhillamys] project to be indefinitely deferred. We remove it from our financial forecasts and stock valuation.”
RBC Capital Markets.
“RRL retains strong near-term FCF generation (particularly following the closure of gold hedges and subsequent increase in gold price), along with the highest NAV sensitivity to further gold price increases following the recent capex increase at McPhillamys making the project more marginal.
“However, we see the stock as more fairly priced, with uncertainty on the timing/execution of McPhillamys or the possibility of partnering to offset the now ~A$1bn upfront capex (DFS expected mid-CY24, with FID readiness from early CY25).”
Goldman Sachs.
NEWMONT CORP (ASX:NEM)
Reporting Date: 26/04
Market Cap: $69.1 billion
What the experts say:
“NEM is the largest producer in the world. It has 10 Tier 1 assets. 6 world-class Cu – Au projects.
“NEM is the result of the merger of Newmont and Newcrest. There are significant synergies to come. $500m by the end of 2025 is forecast. Plus, the company is set to sell six Tier 2 assets to raise $3bn to focus on its better assets.
“Given its lacklustre performance since it joined forces with NCM, this one should continue to push higher.”
Marcus Today.
RAMELIUS RESOURCES (ASX:RMS)
Reporting Date: TBD
Market Cap: $2.23 billion
What the experts say:
“We continue to highlight RMS’s strong FCF [free cash flow] generation following its preliminary MarQ’24 result, where it generated a record A$125m in FCF.
“CG estimates FY25E FCF of A$299m (13% yield), increasing to A$331m at spot (15% yield).”
Canaccord Genuity.
“RMS expects Q3 AISC of A$1375-1475/oz. This was a notably strong RMS quarter, particularly given the weather issues experienced by other WA miners.
“RMS stated that the full Q3 result will potentially include upgrades to FY24 guidance, following the strong quarter. Consensus appears to have largely not incorporated the operational update.”
RBC Capital Markets.
The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interviews in this article are solely those of the interviewees and do not represent the views of Stockhead. Stockhead does not provide, endorse or otherwise assume responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article.
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