ASX200 futures indicate potential for record-high opening on Monday
Safe havens could be sought following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Morningstar has released its Q3 outlook report
The ASX200 index could hit hit the 8,000 mark for the first time ever when the market opens on Monday. At 8am AEST, the ASX200 futures contract was pointing up by +0.6%.
The expected rally follows a strong lead on Wall Street last Friday where the S&P 500 reached another record high and the Dow Jones surpassed the 40,000 mark.
Analysts, however, predict that traders will flock to safe-haven asses and reassess investments closely tied to former Donald Trump’s candidacy following the news of him being clipped by a bullet to the ear at a rally on Sunday AEST.
Investors are likely to seek safe havens such as gold. Bitcoin has already responded positively to the news given Trump’s recent pro-crypto stance.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shooting,” says Garfield Reynolds at Bloomberg.
Nick Twidale at ATFX added,” I’d suspect gold could test all-time highs, we will see the yen getting bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries too.”
Trump said he was shot in the right ear, and according to a statement from his campaign, he is “fine”. The shooter, Thomas Crooks, was shot and killed.
To stocks, US Big Tech stocks were mixed following Thursday’s sell-off where the entire “Magnificent 7” group of stocks had their worst day in nearly a year.
Meta dropped another -3% on Friday, Amazon was down -0.3%, but Tesla and Nvidia rallied by +3% and +2% respectively.
JP Morgan slipped over -1.2% despite the bank reporting a 25% increase in profit in Q2 driven by higher investment banking fees and an US$7.9 billion one-time gain from the sale of its stake in Visa.
Wells Fargo, however, sank by -6% after the bank reported a decline in profit and failed to meet estimates for interest income.
And Novo Nordisk rose by +1/3% following an Oxford study that revealed the Danish company’s diabetes drug, Ozempic, was associated with reduced rates of dementia and various mental health issues.
Morningstar’s Q3 prediction
Morningstar has just released its Australia and New Zealand Equity Market Outlook for Q3 2024.
Australian and New Zealand stocks traded lower in the June quarter on weaker commodity prices and concerns about sticky inflation.
There has been a large divergence between sectors since late last year – with those likely to benefit from lower interest rates such as consumer cyclical, financial, real estate, and technology outperforming, while basic materials, consumer defensive, and healthcare have struggled.
Morningstar says it sees most 4- and 5-star-rated opportunities in healthcare, real estate, communications services, and energy in the quarter ahead.
The upcoming August 2024 reporting season is set to close off a difficult year for Australian retailing, which navigated soft demand and soaring labour costs, the research company added.
The Australian technology sector has performed well so far in 2024 and now screens as fairly valued, on average.
In the mining space, Morningstar says the sector is overvalued on average, but there is some value on offer.
“Minerals sands miner Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU) is materially undervalued, driven by the cyclical downturn in property markets in China and elsewhere.
“Gold miner Newmont (ASX:NEM) is also cheap. Its shares should benefit from higher gold prices along with rising production and lower costs. Iron ore miners BHP (ASX:BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) are close to fairly valued, while Fortescue (ASX:FMG) is materially overvalued.
Back to markets
Gold price fell by around -0.2% to US$2,411.10 an ounce, but could rally when the market opens later, driven by Trump’s shooting.
Oil prices were down -0.5%, with Brent crude now trading at US$85.03 a barrel.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield ticked lower by around 3 basis points (bond prices higher) to 4.19%.
The Aussie dollar gained +0.3% to 67.85 cents.
The iron ore price slipped by -0.2% to US$107.80 a tonne.
Bitcoin meanwhile rose by +2% in the last 24 hours to US$59,778 while Ethereum rose +1% to US$3,195.
5 ASX small caps to watch today
Kinatico (ASX:KYP)
During Q4 of FY24, Kinatico earned $2.8m in SaaS revenue, an increase of 43% on the pcp. SaaS revenue for the quarter comprised 38% of Kinatico’s total Q4 revenue of $7.3m. Profit for the full FY24 was $0.8m, up 225% from $0.2m in FY23. As at 30 June 2024, Kinatico’s closing cash and cash equivalents, inclusive of long-term deposits, was $10.1m.
Top End Energy (ASX:TEE)
TEE announced preliminary results from the geophysical and geological evaluation of its newly acquired Exploration Permit (EP) 144 in the South Nicholson Basin, Northern Territory. Highlights include identifying a significant gas play fairway on EP 144, the NDI Carrara-1 well intercepting multiple source rock intervals with high organic carbon content, and the permit’s proximity to the Northern Gas Pipeline, offering access to the East Coast gas market. The NDI Carrara-1 well also indicated the presence of hydrogen and helium. Top End holds a 100% interest in EP 144, the only granted permit in the South Nicholson Basin.
Metalicity (ASX:MCT)
First assays from the recent RC drilling programme at the Yundamindra Gold Project have been returned with multiple impressive gold intersections and high grades. Significant intercepts include: [email protected]/tAu from 28m, and [email protected]/t Au. Importantly, MCT says mineralised intercepts correlate with historical drill intercepts, providing validation and encouragement for further drilling and potential resource estimation.
Singular Health Group (ASX:SHG)
SHG has expanded its 3Dicom for Veterans initiative from Miami-Dade County to Austin, Texas, after receiving an order for 5,000 additional annual licenses from TechWorks4Good. This expansion will allow at least 5,000 veterans in Austin to access their medical imaging records, reducing duplicate imaging and delays in care. Positive results in Florida, following the launch of the 3Dicom online viewer and technical improvements, have supported this expansion.
Attura (ASX:ATA)
IT firms’ Atturra’s unaudited FY24 revenue is expected to exceed $240 million, a 35% increase from the previous year. The company anticipates an underlying EBITDA of $25-$26 million, up 19% on pcp. Over 40 new federal government contracts, including ones with the Departments of Defence, Home Affairs, and Treasury, have boosted performance. Atturra is also performing well in the education, mining, and local government sectors and expects continued strong revenue growth in FY25 while maintaining its EBITDA targets.
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