What grabbed the headlines last week?
Not a ball-tinglingly terrific week for investors, let’s be honest.
Pretty much everyone was hoping to see a fat’n happy near-term rate cut by the US Fed at least – if not the EBC, RBA, BoE et al.
Alas, such expectations were nudged further out to sea, thanks to an array of hawkish Fedspeak out of Florida last week.
Then came the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and on Thursday in the States some quite better-than-expected PMIs suggesting some virile American business activity (and prices) during May.
On Wall Street, the S&P500 managed to close slightly higher, clinching a sliver-then fifth straight week of gains, the US benchmark’s longest winning run since just after ‘Straya Day.
That was mainly thanks to Nvidia’s (NVDA) 7% after hours surge on Wednesday, where the chipmaker busted through the $1,000 level for the first time on the back of stunning quarterly results and even better guidance.
Yet, truth be told, after clocking its latest fresh record high on Tuesday in New York, US stocks have largely sat back on their haunches sucking in the big ones as that growing cloud of interest cut mystery continues to gather round Mount Federal Reserve.
T’were those FOMC minutes, the hawky-talky coupled with the unwelcome good economic data, which dented US sentiment.
Of course, the Nasdaq Comp got a revivifying shot in the arm when NVDA smashed them haughty Wall Street expectations.
Adding sugar to the icing, the Napolean of AI – after more than doubling its quarterly dividend – also revealed cunning plans for an ambitious 10-1 stock split.
CEO Jensen Huang was appropriately stentorious on the day:
“The next industrial revolution has begun. Companies and countries are partnering with Nvidia to shift the trillion-dollar traditional data centers to accelerated computing to produce a new commodity: Artificial Intelligence.”
The S&P (SP500) added +0.03% for the week, while the Nasdaq (COMP:IND) climbed +1.4%. Conversely, the blue-chip Dow (DJI) fell -2.3%.
The ASX200 done bad, down 1.11% over the last week, after crossing below its 50-day moving average on Friday.
The weak US lead, the hawkish RBA chat, a pullback in oil and metal prices saw the Materials and Energy sectors fall as did the Comms sector, while the rate sensitive ASS Retail and Property stocks also suffered.
There’s a possibility that OPEC+ will push for steeper production cuts when it meets at the beginning of June amid the less optimistic demand outlook, but it’s hard to see an agreement beyond a cobbled together extension of the existing quotas.
Via ASX
But.
The iron ore price rose.
Aussie bond yields reversed some of their recent decline on renewed uncertainty about rate cuts.
The benchmark is currently 2.31% below its 52-week high and has looked more convincing.
Via Google
Last week’s diminishing expectations for US rate cuts have also been a right drag on gold prices too.
Gold’s slide, meanwhile, has likely been exacerbated by profit taking and the fulsome outlook for the greenback, although a further rebound in US Treasury yields could turn into a bigger headache.
Here’s the cost of some gold over the last 40 years. That bottoming out moment in 2000 is when a mate of mine told me to go buy a lot.
Of course, I was a stage actor back then, so I didn’t understand. And I had no money.
Via AMP
US Earnings
Nvidia. Lowe’s did good too, but that made people think how strong the US consumer is and so…
The Week Ahead
At home the bureau of numbers will drop the Aussie monthly CPI rates on Wednesday.
Last week Aussies thought Aussie inflation was easing, as per Westpac and the Melbourne Institute’s thingy:
Via AMP
At the May meeting, the Reserve Bankers of Aussie pretty much held onto their dull, neutral stance, disappointing everyone banking on either a dovish tilt or a hawkish shift due to a wobbling economy and still-sticky local inflation.
Chinese business conditions PMIs for May (Friday) are expected to be little changed. The Aussie dollar, not at its best already, could be hit by befuddled Chinese PMIs as well.
Japanese data for jobs, industrial production and retail sales will be released Friday.
The April PMIs showed that growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors slowed, but China’s exports and imports improved, pointing to a potential return of the Chinese consumer.
In the US, the focus will be on inflation again with core private final consumption inflation for April due Friday.
Meanwhile, home price growth (Tuesday) is expected to have slowed in March and consumer confidence (also Tuesday) is likely to have fallen slightly.
In the EU there’s inflation data for May (Friday) and unemployment for April (Thursday).
US Futures overnight:
Via Fox
The Economic Calendar
Monday May 27 – Friday May 31
MONDAY
BOJ Gov Ueda Speech
CN Industrial Profits (YTD)
JP BOJ Uchida Speech
JP Coincident Index Final MAR
JP Leading Economic Index Final MAR
DE Ifo Business Conditions MAY
EU 20-Year, 3-Year Bond Auction
ECB Lane Speech
TUESDAY
AU Retail Sales MoM Prel APR
ECB Schnabel Speech
US Fed Mester Speech
Germany Wholesale Prices YoY
Germany 10-Year Bund/g Auction
WEDNESDAY
US Money Supply APR
US Fed Cook Speech
12:00 PM
AU Westpac Leading Index
AU Construction Work Done
AU Monthly CPI Indicator APR
JP BOJ Adachi Speech
JP Consumer Confidence MAY
Ger GfK Consumer Confidence JUN
Inflation Rate YoY Prel MAY
FR Consumer Confidence MAY
FR Retail Sales MoM APR -0.5% 1.0%
EU Loans APR
EU M3 Money Supply YoY APR
US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate MAY
US Mortgage Market Index MAY
IN M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/17 11.1% 10.9%
US Redbook YoY MAY
THURSDAY
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index MAY
US Dallas Fed Services Index MAY
US 2-Year FRN Auction
RU Industrial Production YoY APR
US Fed Williams Speech
US Fed Beige Book
US API Crude Oil Stock Change MAY
AU RBA Hunter Speech
US Fed Bostic Speech
GB Car Production
JP Foreign Bond/ Stock Investment by Foreigners MAY
AU Building Permits MoM Prel APR
AU Building Capital Expenditure
AU Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure
AU Private Capital Expenditure
AU Private House Approvals MoM Prel APR
JP 2-Year JGB Auction
Unemployment Rate APR 7.2% 7.3% 7.3%
08:00 PM
EU Economic Sentiment MAY
Unemployment Rate APR
Consumer Confidence Final MAY
Consumer Inflation Expectations MAY
Industrial Sentiment MAYSelling Price Expectations MAY
Mex Unemployment Rate APR
US GDP Growth Rate
US Corporate Profit
US Goods Trade Balance Adv APR $-91.83B $-91.8B $-93.0B
11:30 PM
US Initial Jobless Claims MAY
US Retail Inventories Ex Autos
US Wholesale Inventories MoM
US Continuing Jobless Claims MAY
US Core PCE Prices
US GDP Sales
FRIDAY
US Pending Home Sales
US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
US Fed Williams Speech
US Fed Logan Speech
KOR Industrial Production
KOR Retail Sales MoM APR
JP Unemployment Rate
JP Tokyo Core CPI
AU Housing Credit
AU Private Sector Credit
CN NBS Manufacturing PMI MAY
CN NBS Non Manufacturing PMI MAY
CN NBS General PMI MAY
JP Housing Starts YoY APR
JP Construction Orders
FR Non Farm Payrolls
AU Commodity Prices YoY MAY
FR Inflation Rate YoY Prel MA
FR GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final
FR PPI MoM APR
GB BoE Consumer Credit
EU Inflation Rate
US Core PCE Price Index
US Core PCE Price Index YoY APR 2.8% 2.7%
The post Traders’ Diary: Everything you need to get ready for the week ahead appeared first on Stockhead.
