What’s happening today with this and that, here and there, pertaining to the lithium market? Let’s find out.
Hold your horses, futures contango followers and lithium spot price bottom fanciers. That is, if you take one set of big banker analysts’ words as gospel.
And that’s because Goldman Sachs is urging caution regarding the recent lithium rally, which now appears stalled.
That said it could still hit a higher gear or move into backwardation, reversing out a tight alley at speed. Yep… could go up, could go down. Hell, sideways, too. We’ll stick to the reporting…
Tuesday was one of the worst days for the majority of lithium stocks in a while, after major lithium companies dipped alarmingly.
That said, thankfully there’s been some recovery since then for lithium prices, per last check in with Lithium Price Bot.
2024-03-05#Lithium Carbonate 99.5% Min China Spot
Price: $14,921.00
1 day: $208.20 (1.42%)
YTD: 9.06%#Spodumene Concentrate (6%, CIF China)
Price: $999.00
1 day: $12.0 (1.22%)
YTD: -24.03%
Sponsored by @portofino_porhttps://t.co/h4nTzvPdUc
— Lithium Price Bot (@LithiumPriceBot) March 5, 2024
Back to backwardation?
A good description of yesterday’s trading in the Chinese futures and spot markets, and what is to come next.
In other words, be cautious, enjoy while you can, and do not overexpect anything. #Lithium pic.twitter.com/dgNiwvmeOx
— Juan Carlos Zuleta (@jczuleta) March 5, 2024
Why did it dip, though? It’s being widely attributed to at least a couple of factors.
Firstly, the news that major global lithium player Albemarle is conducting a capital raise, per an SEC filing in which the company revealed it plans to raise US$1.9 billion through issuing 35 million new depository shares.
This has caused a stir in the US investment landscape, with knock-on effects to globally.
“This was unexpected news, as we view Albemarle’s balance sheet as healthy,” said Seth Goldstein, equities strategist at Morningstar.
Albemarle’s share price had been showing signs of recovery before plunging on the cap raise news, which left many an analyst scratching head.
With regard to Albemarle’s sell-off, Goldstein added: “We think the market is skeptical of a lithium price recovery.”
That said, he continued…
“As inventory destocking eventually ends, we expect lithium sales volumes will move closer to end-market demand, which we expect will see double-digit growth in 2024.
“As supply growth has slowed and some higher-cost supply exited the market, we expect the lithium market will revert to undersupply by the end of 2024, sending prices rising, particularly in the second half of the year. For lithium producers, including Albemarle, higher prices should provide a strong catalyst for shares to rise.”
The other factor, by the way, was a dip yesterday in the stock prices of EV big guns Tesla and BYD.
Not out of woods yet: Goldman’s bearish view
Goldman Sachs
Per a research note published overnight in the US, Goldman Sachs notes it believes it is still too early to call the end of the lithium bear market and an end to a battery raw materials price plunge in general.
For the coming 12 months, Goldman analysts said that the bank is targeting a 12%, 15% and 25% downside in cobalt, nickel and lithium carbonate, respectively.
“Despite the significant downside in battery metals prices, with nickel, lithium and cobalt prices down 60%, 80% and 65% from cycle peak, respectively, we believe it is too early to call a decisive end to these respective bear markets,” wrote the investment bank’s analysts in a note to clients.
“Margin pressures have generated a meaningful degree of supply rationing effects over the past quarter,” added the investment bank analysts.
However, here’s optimism from Citi and UBS
Citi
As reported by Carl Capolingua at Market Index, Citi analysts are also suggesting caution in their lithium outlook, despite demand growth remaining strong.
Citi says it’s “waiting on supply response at current prices”.
The broker has formed a view that “lithium prices have bottomed near-term and that long-term demand growth rates remain intact”, wrote Capolingua.
UBS
The Market Index analyst also highlighted another prominent UBS, which suggested that since its last update on the lithium market, “more supply has been curtailed, slowed or delayed”.
UBS has cut its outlook on expected 2024 surplus from 142kt to 94kt.
“To put this into perspective, it’s the difference between 6 weeks of market supply and just 4 weeks,” wrote Capolingua, adding:
“Reasons for the curtailment include a slowing in Chinese lepidolite supply, environmental inspections in China, delays and production cutbacks at key major producers, and ‘new projects are being pushed out’.
ASX lithium form guide
Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop. (Note: figures accurate per ASX at 3pm.)
Stocks missing from this list? Email [email protected]
CODE COMPANY TODAY WEEK 1 MONTH % 12 MONTH % PRICE MARKET CAP ADV Ardiden Ltd 4% -9% -19% -52% 0.145 $8,752,451 AGY Argosy Minerals Ltd -6% -2% 17% -83% 0.1225 $182,572,975 1MC Morella Corporation 0% -14% -25% -73% 0.003 $18,536,398 AML Aeon Metals Ltd. 0% 20% -40% -73% 0.006 $6,578,404 ASN Anson Resources Ltd -10% 11% 24% -51% 0.099 $141,540,103 AVZ AVZ Minerals Ltd 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.78 $2,752,409,203 CXO Core Lithium -5% 1% 23% -76% 0.2275 $512,864,531 EMH European Metals Hldg -6% 0% -2% -51% 0.3 $40,219,365 EUR European Lithium Ltd -5% -14% -14% 7% 0.074 $108,750,656 GLN Galan Lithium Ltd -5% 11% 18% -67% 0.39 $159,630,156 INF Infinity Lithium 0% 1% 0% -29% 0.078 $36,082,183 INR Ioneer Ltd -5% 2% 10% -61% 0.1375 $306,241,761 JLL Jindalee Lithium Ltd 3% -6% -13% -69% 0.795 $46,879,841 LIT Lithium Australia 0% -4% 0% -31% 0.027 $33,001,875 LKE Lake Resources -4% -4% 20% -82% 0.11 $163,768,108 LPD Lepidico Ltd 0% 0% 0% -54% 0.006 $45,829,848 LPI Lithium Pwr Int Ltd 0% 6% 1% 59% 0.565 $361,898,974 LTR Liontown Resources -2% 8% 40% -23% 1.25 $3,089,641,867 MIN Mineral Resources. 0% -1% 14% -28% 63.99 $12,491,931,392 MLS Metals Australia 0% -4% -13% -43% 0.027 $19,098,977 AKE Allkem Limited 0% -100% -100% -100% 0 $6,304,350,967 PLL Piedmont Lithium Inc -3% 12% 6% -77% 0.2125 $84,877,870 PLS Pilbara Min Ltd 0% 5% 19% -2% 4.08 $12,338,818,575 QPM Queensland Pacific -4% -4% -9% -64% 0.0355 $74,463,992 PSC Prospect Res Ltd -3% 1% -13% -66% 0.069 $32,896,569 RLC Reedy Lagoon Corp. 0% 0% 0% -54% 0.004 $2,478,163 SYA Sayona Mining Ltd -2% 5% 5% -83% 0.041 $432,318,433 TKL Traka Resources 0% -25% -25% -68% 0.0015 $2,625,988 TON Triton Min Ltd 7% 0% -6% -53% 0.016 $23,420,890 VUL Vulcan Energy 0% 13% 24% -59% 2.5 $431,903,250 GL1 Globallith 1% 19% 36% -63% 0.59 $152,255,200 BMM Balkanminingandmin 0% -3% -4% -80% 0.069 $4,901,795 LEL Lithenergy 4% 2% 57% -24% 0.55 $54,595,300 ARN Aldoro Resources 1% -18% -4% -63% 0.086 $11,443,018 NMT Neometals Ltd -2% 13% 13% -80% 0.1525 $96,535,599 IGO IGO Limited -1% 1% 11% -45% 7.66 $5,853,680,194 AAJ Aruma Resources Ltd 6% 13% -15% -73% 0.017 $3,150,264 PAM Pan Asia Metals 0% 0% 0% -57% 0.16 $26,850,684 AX8 Accelerate Resources 0% 15% 41% 11% 0.031 $18,909,111 AM7 Arcadia Minerals 0% -3% 4% -69% 0.07 $7,633,507 AS2 Askarimetalslimited -2% 4% -8% -84% 0.087 $7,083,306 BYH Bryah Resources Ltd 13% 29% -10% -59% 0.009 $3,483,628 EMS Eastern Metals 0% -11% -6% -54% 0.031 $2,555,214 FG1 Flynngold 10% -6% -18% -42% 0.045 $6,729,777 FRS Forrestaniaresources -14% -10% -22% -85% 0.018 $3,397,501 GSM Golden State Mining -9% 0% -9% -73% 0.01 $3,073,077 IMI Infinitymining 13% -19% -26% -52% 0.081 $8,550,244 LRV Larvottoresources -8% -5% -9% -60% 0.06 $14,534,757 MMC Mitremining -11% 0% 17% -7% 0.28 $28,086,948 RAG Ragnar Metals Ltd 0% 0% -9% 40% 0.02 $9,479,619 CTN Catalina Resources 0% -20% -20% -43% 0.004 $4,953,948 TMB Tambourahmetals -4% -11% 2% -23% 0.085 $7,381,691 TEM Tempest Minerals 0% 14% 14% -64% 0.008 $4,152,995 EMC Everest Metals Corp -5% -11% 0% -12% 0.076 $13,142,649 WCN White Cliff Min Ltd -6% 0% -6% 36% 0.015 $21,407,063 WML Woomera Mining Ltd 0% -20% -20% -67% 0.004 $4,872,556 AZL Arizona Lithium Ltd -4% 13% 24% -57% 0.026 $102,908,272 CRR Critical Resources 0% -11% 23% -66% 0.016 $28,445,604 KGD Kula Gold Limited 0% 13% 38% -53% 0.009 $4,162,157 LRS Latin Resources Ltd 2% 13% 59% 87% 0.215 $587,878,087 PNN Power Minerals Ltd 0% 20% 31% -50% 0.21 $18,348,981 WR1 Winsome Resources -1% 17% 61% -60% 0.86 $165,029,069 KZR Kalamazoo Resources 0% 1% 4% -39% 0.097 $16,955,943 MTM MTM Critical Metals -5% -21% 22% -34% 0.079 $10,316,598 QXR Qx Resources Limited -5% 5% 43% -47% 0.02 $23,311,635 SCN Scorpion Minerals 0% 67% 20% -56% 0.03 $12,283,686 AZI Altamin Limited 0% 15% 8% -22% 0.055 $24,136,697 ENT Enterprise Metals 0% 0% -25% -63% 0.003 $2,405,913 KAI Kairos Minerals Ltd 0% 8% -4% -29% 0.013 $34,071,858 STM Sunstone Metals Ltd 5% 17% 5% -68% 0.0105 $35,006,515 PGD Peregrine Gold -3% -10% -28% -52% 0.2075 $14,529,361 AVW Avira Resources Ltd 0% 0% -50% -67% 0.001 $2,133,790 NVA Nova Minerals Ltd 0% 2% -11% -49% 0.28 $59,049,217 GT1 Greentechnology -5% 46% 41% -72% 0.19 $63,750,419 BNR Bulletin Res Ltd -3% -4% -10% -30% 0.073 $22,020,999 CAI Calidus Resources -3% -3% -17% -36% 0.145 $91,894,073 MRR Minrex Resources Ltd 0% 0% 4% -58% 0.013 $14,103,278 A8G Australasian Metals 8% -4% -23% -52% 0.077 $3,700,555 EFE Eastern Resources 0% 14% 14% -50% 0.008 $9,935,572 MQR Marquee Resource Ltd 0% 5% 10% -24% 0.022 $9,094,456 SRZ Stellar Resources 0% 22% 57% 0% 0.011 $15,799,114 LSR Lodestar Minerals -25% -25% -25% -63% 0.0015 $4,046,795 NWM Norwest Minerals -3% 3% 19% -6% 0.031 $10,955,824 AOA Ausmon Resorces 0% 0% 50% -40% 0.003 $3,176,998 VKA Viking Mines Ltd 0% -9% -23% 0% 0.01 $10,252,584 IPT Impact Minerals 15% 25% 25% 67% 0.015 $37,241,151 SRI Sipa Resources Ltd 0% -5% -10% -34% 0.019 $4,335,005 VMC Venus Metals Cor Ltd 0% 0% -13% 7% 0.096 $18,213,954 RGL Riversgold -11% -11% -11% -60% 0.008 $8,708,953 ZNC Zenith Minerals Ltd 1% 4% -23% -56% 0.096 $33,476,184 RAS Ragusa Minerals Ltd 9% 57% 24% -65% 0.036 $4,705,760 G88 Golden Mile Res Ltd 10% 0% 0% -37% 0.011 $4,112,229 EPM Eclipse Metals 0% -14% -20% -67% 0.006 $12,450,325 EVR Ev Resources Ltd -4% -18% 15% -23% 0.0115 $13,855,060 WC8 Wildcat Resources -4% 14% 62% 2245% 0.68 $849,045,067 MNS Magnis Energy Tech 0% 0% 0% -88% 0.042 $50,378,922 RIO Rio Tinto Limited -1% 1% -4% -2% 124.05 $46,316,647,021 THR Thor Energy PLC 4% 0% -21% -53% 0.026 $4,604,303 YAR Yari Minerals Ltd 17% 40% -22% -63% 0.007 $2,894,147 MXR Maximus Resources 0% 6% 0% -6% 0.033 $10,591,210 DRE Dreadnought Resources Ltd 3% 3% 3% -76% 0.0185 $62,668,313 MM1 Midasmineralsltd 0% 4% -15% -43% 0.085 $7,373,516 M2R Miramar 0% -11% -27% -73% 0.016 $2,381,913 LLI Loyal Lithium Ltd 6% 2% 25% -25% 0.275 $21,654,703 LRD Lordresourceslimited 13% 4% -9% -73% 0.053 $1,745,210 WMC Wiluna Mining Corp 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.205 $74,238,031 AUN Aurumin 0% 18% 25% -20% 0.04 $14,737,723 ZEO Zeotech Limited 0% 15% -6% -51% 0.03 $52,002,692 ALY Alchemy Resource Ltd 14% 14% 0% -47% 0.008 $8,246,534 LIS Lisenergylimited -3% 0% -7% -53% 0.14 $92,829,033 GW1 Greenwing Resources 4% 4% -10% -68% 0.078 $13,593,861 KTA Krakatoa Resources -4% -21% -42% -72% 0.011 $5,429,233 TYX Tyranna Res Ltd 8% 18% -13% -38% 0.013 $39,449,104 DAF Discovery Alaska Ltd 0% 0% -20% -47% 0.016 $3,747,755 FTL Firetail Resources 0% 26% 0% -59% 0.058 $8,636,522 IR1 Irismetals -3% 27% 4% -43% 0.665 $88,731,463 LNR Lanthanein Resources 0% -40% -40% -83% 0.003 $5,564,727 DAL Dalaroometalsltd 0% -24% -24% -79% 0.016 $1,324,000 TKM Trek Metals Ltd 14% 18% 11% -41% 0.04 $17,957,690 CY5 Cygnus Metals Ltd -3% 7% -6% -82% 0.063 $18,951,344 TUL Tulla Resources 0% -100% -100% -100% 0 $118,262,971 WES Wesfarmers Limited 0% -2% 12% 36% 65.26 $73,812,257,122 LLL Leolithiumlimited 0% 0% 0% -6% 0.505 $498,553,663 OCN Oceanalithiumlimited -2% -5% -2% -82% 0.061 $3,352,743 A11 Atlantic Lithium -5% 7% 5% -41% 0.395 $269,612,657 CMD Cassius Mining Ltd -8% -68% -67% -67% 0.011 $6,504,054 VSR Voltaic Strategic -5% 11% 33% 0% 0.02 $10,145,182 SGQ St George Min Ltd -5% -5% -17% -71% 0.02 $20,759,349 LLO Lion One Metals Ltd 0% 0% -31% -36% 0.62 $9,586,267 PAT Patriot Lithium 11% 3% -42% -76% 0.078 $4,873,199 PL3 Patagonia Lithium -3% -12% 26% 0% 0.145 $7,369,275 BUR Burleyminerals 2% -3% -34% -81% 0.059 $5,991,212 CHR Charger Metals -4% -4% -8% -68% 0.115 $9,290,430 RMX Red Mount Min Ltd 0% 0% -20% -56% 0.002 $5,347,152 DLI Delta Lithium -2% 6% 10% -20% 0.3075 $224,223,187 LM1 Leeuwin Metals Ltd 0% -9% -16% 0% 0.08 $3,748,134 ENT Enterprise Metals 0% 0% -25% -63% 0.003 $2,405,913 FIN FIN Resources Ltd 0% 27% 12% 27% 0.019 $12,336,105 DTM Dart Mining NL -6% 14% 23% -66% 0.016 $3,868,854 NIS Nickelsearch -3% 0% -18% -58% 0.033 $7,260,443 EG1 Evergreenlithium 0% 5% -12% 0% 0.11 $6,185,300 MAN Mandrake Res Ltd 0% -5% 0% -24% 0.038 $23,398,877 FBM Future Battery 6% 6% 8% -4% 0.055 $27,755,311 LPM Lithium Plus -3% 3% -10% -40% 0.18 $15,907,817 KOB Kobaresourceslimited 0% -4% -35% -21% 0.11 $14,345,833 EMC Everest Metals Corp -5% -11% 0% -12% 0.076 $13,142,649 LRD Lordresourceslimited 13% 4% -9% -73% 0.053 $1,745,210 IEC Intra Energy Corp 0% 0% -33% -60% 0.002 $3,381,563 REC Rechargemetals 0% -3% 11% -44% 0.07 $7,794,638 SLM Solismineralsltd -4% -4% -4% -21% 0.115 $9,418,650 AZS Azure Minerals 0% 1% -1% 1117% 3.59 $1,651,246,470 DYM Dynamicmetalslimited 0% 32% 28% 28% 0.205 $7,380,000 TOR Torque Met -9% -6% -27% 11% 0.15 $25,253,831 SBR Sabre Resources 0% -11% -19% -50% 0.017 $6,362,453 ICL Iceni Gold -6% 67% -25% -68% 0.03 $7,889,954 TMX Terrain Minerals 25% 25% 11% -17% 0.005 $5,726,683 MHC Manhattan Corp Ltd 0% 20% 0% -50% 0.003 $8,810,939 MHK Metalhawk. 6% 7% -15% -42% 0.072 $6,760,182 NKL Nickelxltd 0% -3% -8% -46% 0.036 $3,161,346 TMB Tambourahmetals -4% -11% 2% -23% 0.085 $7,381,691 ANX Anax Metals Ltd -5% 6% -17% -72% 0.019 $10,848,959 PMT Patriotbatterymetals 1% 9% 32% -47% 0.875 $498,013,872 BM8 Battery Age Minerals 0% -9% 3% -69% 0.15 $13,764,048 L1M Lightning Minerals 0% -3% -5% -56% 0.07 $2,955,754 ADG Adelong Gold Limited -11% -20% -20% -50% 0.004 $3,230,950 TOR Torque Met -9% -6% -27% 11% 0.15 $25,253,831 AL8 Alderan Resource Ltd 20% 20% 100% -14% 0.006 $5,534,307 OZM Ozaurum Resources -6% -4% -3% 34% 0.067 $11,271,250 FL1 First Lithium Ltd -4% 2% 0% 39% 0.25 $18,213,433 PLN Pioneer Lithium 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.155 $4,405,875 WYX Western Yilgarn NL -2% -28% -31% -51% 0.061 $3,855,935 RDN Raiden Resources Ltd -4% 0% 14% 426% 0.025 $69,071,213 PFE Panteraminerals 2% 15% 0% -50% 0.055 $13,512,006 GRE Greentechmetals -4% 20% 26% 74% 0.27 $23,542,393 OLY Olympio Metals Ltd 0% 3% 50% -36% 0.09 $5,723,955 SUM Summitminerals 0% 1% -1% -47% 0.069 $3,288,342 JBY James Bay Minerals -6% -3% 3% 0% 0.16 $5,515,650 SCN Scorpion Minerals 0% 67% 20% -56% 0.03 $12,283,686 JNO Juno 0% 6% -21% -9% 0.071 $12,918,113 CC9 Chariot Corporation -2% -4% -5% 0% 0.275 $22,900,180 OBM Ora Banda Mining Ltd 6% 8% 22% 150% 0.275 $443,953,115 RON Roninresourcesltd 0% -13% -17% -38% 0.1 $3,682,501 CXB0 ASRA MINERALS LTD. 0% 0% 0% -48% 0.00003 $0 ASR Asra Minerals Ltd 0% 0% 9% -45% 0.006 $9,918,974 PFE Panteraminerals 2% 15% 0% -50% 0.055 $13,512,006 TG6 Tgmetalslimited -8% -23% 5% 92% 0.23 $13,521,542 HAW Hawthorn Resources 0% -6% -10% -25% 0.075 $25,126,171 KM1 Kalimetalslimited 5% 10% 1% 0% 0.43 $31,300,259 AEV Avenira Limited 0% 0% -9% -17% 0.01 $21,925,716 DVP Develop Global Ltd 0% 19% 12% -24% 2.48 $601,780,881
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