Aussie home prices nationally are up 5.9% over FY24 and will still have as much as a 5% rise left in them this year, according to PropTrack’s latest biannual study of national property data.
It’s a sharp acceleration – Bris Vegas is up over 12% for the love of Elvis – and the pace of it has analysts on the hop.
There’s more stock, there’s heaps more sales and despite the economic headwinds – like high interest rates – price growth has been on a bit of a tear so far this year, compared to what PropTrack director of economic research and report author Cameron Kusher anticipated back in January.
“The market is proving much more resilient to the sustained pause in interest rates and uplift in stock than we had anticipated.”
In Short: PropTrack Market Outlook June 2024
Australian property prices are expected to increase by as much as 5% in 2024, as prices have already risen 2.7% from January to May
Property prices are up 5.9% over the financial year to date (FYTD) and are expected to rise a further 2% to 5% in the 2024-25 financial year (FY25)
Perth is projected to lead home price growth again next fin year, albeit at a slower pace, having risen 18.9% over FYTD and predicted to increase a further 8% to 11% during FY25
Despite varying rates of home price growth in Brisbane (+12.2%), Sydney (+5.8%) and Melbourne (+0.8) over FYTD, each city is projected to see home prices rise between 3% and 6% in FY25
Home prices in Adelaide are expected to grow by a more moderate 5% to 8% in FY25, following prices soaring 12.9% over FYTD
Stage TROIS tax cuts and the anticipated reduction of interest rates in FY25 have the potential to encourage buyer demand and further increase home prices
Game of Mugs
Forecasting is a mug’s game when even the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) doesn’t know what inflation is doing, let alone what the trajectory of interest rates might need to be at any given time.
“Forecasting home price growth for the year ahead becomes increasingly challenging as we observe a property market that is proving to be far more resilient than anticipated,” Kusher, says.
According to the PropTrack director of economic research, it all started at the end of last year, when there’d been a clearly notable deceleration in home values.
At the time, interest rates had just increased but were expected to have reached their peak, and the stock of new listings coming to market and total listings for sale was increasing.
“Given this, at the time of our previous forecasts, we expected the slowing of price growth to continue until tax and interest rate cuts occurred from the second half of this year.
“Buyer demand remains strong despite interest rates sitting at 12-year highs, borrowing capacities falling and the volume of stock for sale increasing, leading property prices to rise at a faster rate than expected.
As it stands right now, Kusher says, the volume of new stock coming to market has continued to rise and broaden to more capital cities and the overall volume of stock for sale has persistently increased. Despite the lift in stock for sale, there has also been a significant increase in sales volumes and subsequently price growth has been stronger than anticipated early in 2024.
“The market is proving much more resilient to the sustained pause in interest rates and uplift in stock than we had anticipated.”
“Over the next financial year, the introduction of Stage 3 tax cuts and projected interest rate cuts have the power to further entice buyer demand while supply from new dwelling commencements and completions are expected to remain low.
“We expect home price growth will be slightly stronger by the end of the 2024-25 financial year than annual growth over the 2024 calendar year, with prices anticipated to rise in the larger markets of Sydney and Melbourne over the next 12 months while slowing in several capital cities.”
So the Aussie property market remains resilient despite higher interest rates, which now look likely to persist for longer than first expected.
Just a few months ago it seemed likely that interest rates would be cut later this year, and while rate cuts remain more likely than increases, the expectation is that these cuts will not commence until the first half of 2025.
That so didn’t happen and voila – rates really are higher for longer, and everyone’s borrowing capacity is getting whacked.
Pumped up the volume
According to PropTrack, over the first five months of 2024, sales volumes have proven to be strong, with national volumes 13.9% higher than the same period last year. The total number of properties available for sale has increased by 8.2% in May 2024 compared to the same period last year.
Kusher says all this indicates that the lift in sales volumes has occurred despite there being heaps more choice for buyers.
“New listing volumes in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have seen the largest increases, highlighting how the willingness from sellers to list has been matched by the enthusiasm from buyers to purchase.
“We are starting to see an increase in new listings coming to fruition across most other markets now, too.”
Via PropTrack
In each capital city and rest of state area, except for Hobart and regional Northern Territory, sales are higher over the year.
The greatest increases in sales volumes have occurred in Sydney, Melbourne and Darwin, with Sydney and Melbourne also being the two of the three capital city regions, along with Canberra, with the largest increases in stock available for sale.
Additional report findings:
• National sales volumes were 13.9% higher from January to May 2024 than the same period in the year prior.
• Despite Sydney and Melbourne seeing the largest increase in sales volumes this year to date, they were two of the three capital city regions, alongside Canberra, with the greatest rise in stock available for sale.
• The number of enquiries per listing nationally on realestate.com.au fell by 6.3% from May 2023, yet remains at an elevated level, indicating strong buyer interest despite an increase in volume of stock for sale.
• The median time a property listing remained on realestate.com.au dropped to 38 days in May 2024 from 43 days at the same time a year earlier, highlighting the strength of buyer demand.
• National home prices were 42.1% higher over the period from March 2020 to May 2024, with the significant increase in prices and equity gains giving current homeowners confidence to shift to their next property.
What to expect for the remainder of 2024
Given the home price growth trajectory, we are revising our forecasts for price growth for 2024, Kusher says.
“We now expect that prices will increase by between 2% and 5% in the current calendar year.”
Via PropTrack
“We have revised our forecast for price changes this year in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Darwin and Canberra to be higher, largely reflective of the strong price growth momentum in these markets, low volume of stock for sale and the boost from income tax cuts from the middle of this year.
“Price growth expectations are largely unchanged in Sydney and Melbourne, but we believe they are more likely to be on the higher-side of our forecasts.
“Should this price growth come to fruition, it will be a lower rate of growth than what was recorded in 2023 but with larger increases in certain capital cities.”
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