{"id":8914,"date":"2024-04-29T19:40:19","date_gmt":"2024-04-29T19:40:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=8914"},"modified":"2024-04-29T19:40:19","modified_gmt":"2024-04-29T19:40:19","slug":"free-whelan-long-on-japan-is-big-everywhere","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=8914","title":{"rendered":"FREE WHELAN: Long on Japan is big everywhere"},"content":{"rendered":"

In this Stockhead series, investment manager James Whelan, managing director\u00a0Barclay Pearce Capital Asset Management<\/a>, offers his insights on the key investment themes and trends in domestic and global markets. From macro musings to the metaverse and everything in between, Whelan offers his distilled thoughts on the hot topic of the day, week, month or year, from the point of view of a professional money manager.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Quite the brilliant<\/em> podcast recorded last week with substantial<\/em> relevance.<\/p>\n

Heath and I talk to Dave Allen of Plato\u2019s Long Short Alpha Fund. He\u2019s an absolute genius and tells a good market tale too.<\/p>\n

Listen here<\/a>
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Good ol\u2019 days<\/h2>\n

I was recalling to some colleagues a time long ago one of my first broking jobs as operator\/lackey for a hedge fund sales team.<\/p>\n

One of my jobs of the day was to collate all the new merger and acquisition activity, calculate any arbitrage, update files on counter offers or increased bids\u2026<\/p>\n

Just basically track the M&A market.<\/p>\n

I was never<\/em> short of work.<\/p>\n

That 2005-2007 period and post the GFC was a wonderland of small and mega deals.<\/p>\n

One recalls it was an absolute banger<\/em> of a deal in which one energy company made a counter takeover of another energy company that had made a takeover for them\u2026 and Mac Bank had to ask ASIC if \u2018it was ok for them to have separate Mac Bank deal teams on either side of the transaction.\u2019<\/p>\n

It was. Just. Wild. Days.<\/p>\n

Then it all dried up and it was only once in a while that something would come up.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Fast forward to this week\u2026<\/h2>\n

\u2026And BHP comes out with a monstrous, and quite complex, US$60bn takeover of Anglo American.<\/p>\n

You don\u2019t need to be a market insider to know the motivations because the BHP CEO mentions it about 40 times in any interview he\u2019s given the last few days.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Copper.<\/a><\/h2>\n

Do you really want me to go over it again<\/a>?<\/em><\/p>\n

It went through a new two-year high of US$10,000\/tonne into the weekend just gone and I\u2019m still a buyer of dips.<\/p>\n

Not only is the recent rally all, or mostly, about China<\/a>, which accounts for 50% of global use. But the focus on the underlying reasons being the rise of EV cars in that country coinciding with the turnaround in China itself.<\/p>\n

Then to have the head of the largest diversified miner in the world broadly announce that the reasons they want to become the biggest copper miner in the world is purely because there\u2019s an inevitable shortage of the stuff and you get as clear a picture on the future as you need.<\/p>\n

I thought I\u2019d post a monthly copper futures chart (in pounds) dated back to when I started in broking.<\/p>\n\n

The monthly candle for April is about as good as any on this chart.<\/p>\n

Just. Staggering.<\/p>\n

As much as I hate to be \u201cthat guy\u201d you\u2019d have to think that long term this potentially bangs its head on the ceiling before the next most probable thing happens to the upside.<\/p>\n

Be. Sensible.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Japan. Wow. Gosh. Japan.<\/h2>\n

Meanwhile one of the big<\/em> calls made towards the end of last year was to \u201cgo long Japan\u201d on the unwinding of the negative rate position and yield curve control. There was a lot of money on the sidelines just waiting for inflationary urges to force their hand on investing.<\/p>\n

Oh my, hasn\u2019t this been something.<\/p>\n\n

But with the Yen doing what it\u2019s doing, being hedged was the way forward here. At the time of writing it\u2019s just gone through 160 vs the USD which is the lowest since 1990.<\/p>\n

Extraordinary things.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the small cap space<\/h2>\n

Some brilliant news for a stock we\u2019ve been following as well with Wellnex Life (ASX:WNX)<\/strong><\/a> announcing they\u2019ll be dual listing in London.<\/p>\n

Small moves in the Corporate space at the large end and the small end, showing that maybe \u2013 just maybe \u2013 we\u2019re on the way back to the good ol\u2019 days.<\/p>\n

If that\u2019s the case don\u2019t throw out some of those small caps you\u2019ve been holding for a while because takeovers happen to be infectious<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Wine and dash<\/h2>\n

Finally here\u2019s a guy who ran the London Marathon during a wine tasting.<\/p>\n

You just have to watch it. People are amazing.<\/p>\n

A guy did the London Marathon and had a different wine at each mile! That\u2019s something I can get onboard with pic.twitter.com\/ml4dsEPY5W<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 James Briggs (@jamescbriggs) April 22, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n

All the best and stay safe,<\/p>\n

James<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interview in this article are solely those of the writer and do not represent the views of Stockhead.<\/em><\/p>\n

Stockhead has not provided, endorsed or otherwise assumed responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

The post FREE WHELAN: Long on Japan is big everywhere<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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