Geopolitical risk, rates and RBA Minutes await
\nLocal markets ended slightly higher last week\u00a0
\nThe week ahead: expectations of further rotation from banks to miners<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Gold.<\/p>\n
Spot prices kept smacking into new all-time highs during the week, driven by rattled market sentiment, safe haven and central bank fervour haven as well as the lurid rumour pushed by both Gregor and Costco of bullion stacks for sale in the isles, alongside 44-gallon tubs of black olives and wheelie bins of peanut butter \u2013 all aimed at helping punters ride out even the worstest of any various oncoming apocalypsii<\/em>.<\/a><\/p>\n And thus it was that on the ASX last week, investors rotated in earnest out of the toppy Financial sector and over to the other biggie, the Materials sector. Although the Utilities Sector caught the best of the action, (+2.5%) higher, and the shiny crown for the week belonged to punchy big and little ASX Goldies alike, revelling in renewed interest in the precious metal.<\/p>\n In any case, the All Ordinaries (XGD) Gold Index is larfing all the way to the banks\u2019 faces.<\/p>\n\n The XGD ended almost 5% higher last week.<\/p>\n As per the Bank of America last week:<\/p>\n \u201cGold remains one of our favorite (sick) metals and we expect prices to average US$2,500\/oz by the fourth quarter, potentially hitting US$3,000\/oz by 2025. <\/em><\/p>\n \u201cNotably, demand from central banks and China\u2019s retail buyers has been strong. If Western investors join the party on rate cuts, the yellow metal will move a leg higher; this may also be necessary, if sentiment in China improves, and less investment flows into gold.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n It\u2019s not an insubstantial event.<\/p>\n Aussie rock holds around 18% of the world\u2019s known gold resources and we make up almost 10% of global production.<\/p>\n The breakaway republic of Western Australia produces almost 70% of our gold. Something, surely, must be done before that mad dog WA Labor Premier Roger Hugh Cook sniffs an opportunity.<\/p>\n Now, for the first time (today) \u2013 here\u2019s the top ASX goldie-gainers,\u00a0 regardless of market cap or funny names \u2013 in descending order over the last 12 months.<\/p>\n\n The XJR Resources index also did good last week, up 1.8% after a number of commodities lifted through the week.<\/p>\n Materials was in the hunt as well, popping close to 2.0%, while Industrials climbed a shade over 0.6%.<\/p>\n Outside of goldies, it was the uranium comeback kids once more, including Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN)<\/strong><\/a> (+6.72%), Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL)<\/strong><\/a> (+6.67%) and Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN)<\/strong><\/a> (+4.15%).<\/p>\n The biggest losers included City Chic Collective (ASX:CCX)<\/strong><\/a> (-9.3%), Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR)<\/strong><\/a> (-9.1%), Domino\u2019s Pizza Enterprises (ASX:DMP)<\/strong><\/a> (-7.5%) and Lake Resources (ASX:LKE)<\/strong><\/a> (-4.6%).<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The benchmark slunk higher last week despite only three sectors finding the green.<\/p>\n The Typhoon class Resources Sector did comparatively well for a nice change and the displacement of so much weight allowed the local market to rise 0.2%.<\/p>\n Sunken like so many other rate sensitive businesses \u2013 the ilk of the Property Sector led local declines.<\/p>\n In this week\u2019s episode of a podcast Peter and Reuben don\u2019t do, probably called What Were They Thinking,<\/strong><\/em> the boys didn\u2019t dwell on some of the tough choices investors had to weigh up. Peter didn\u2019t analyse the very conflicting news flow on the US inflation front \u2013 strong CPI on Wednesday vs hopes for a three-rate cut Christmas \u2013 before Reuben failed to highlight how a a tame PPI then soothed peaky US traders and their inflation concerns.<\/p>\n All the while in the background, slumbering like a tranq\u2019d rhino in a cot, Reuben\u2019s prizewinning 6.7kg sweet potato soothed to stupor by the endless dovish commentary from last week\u2019s absurd infestation of Fed officials, both past and present.<\/p>\n The podcast, recorded naked in a language entirely their own, would almost certainly be sponsored by Peter\u2019s Golden Apple cider\u2026<\/p>\n Screenshot (Slack) via Me.<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Chart via Marketindex.com.au<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Chart via Marketindex.com.au<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Perhaps the week\u2019s most arse-shuddering market and bowel moving event, has been the wonderfully unhinghed vow of a few hours ago (at the time of writing, late Sunday in Sydenham) from Israel\u2019s Prime Minister or Bust<\/em> Benjamin Netanyahu who just pledged the life of his grandmother on Israel\u2019s total and utter victory after the US ally\u2019s bristling military claimed to have blown away some 300 drones and missiles launched over the weekend by Tehran as Iran finally retaliates to constant Israeli needling.<\/p>\n It is a step change escalation and expansion of the current Middle East conflict from a backyard spring clean into a suburb-wide renovation.<\/p>\n On Wall Street, the three major indices wobbled on Friday in anticipation of the weekend escalation.<\/p>\n It was another uncertain week of great uncertainty after the illuminated runway to a softest of landings, punctuated by generous US Fed Reserve rate cuts became obscured once again by a triple whammy of crap US bank earnings, iffy inflation and the ever gurgling volcano of 2024 geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n The key Wall St Q1 earnings ahead include Messrs Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, Procter and Gamble, Johnson and Johnson and American Express.<\/p>\n On the economic front the Americans face down retail sales data for March and a further cacophony of Fedspeak.<\/p>\n Bond yields rose in the US, UK and Australia but fell in Europe.<\/p>\n Oil prices dipped slightly despite fears about an escalation in the war around Israel to directly include Iran, the copper price rose to new cyclical highs and iron ore prices also rose. The week ahead brings the Minutes of the RBA Board\u2019s March meeting. The post\u2011meeting Statement shifted to a neutral tone, and we would expect that to come through as well in the Minutes.<\/p>\n In the UK, investors anticipate updates on the unemployment rate, wage growth, inflation rate, and retail sales, providing crucial insights following positive signs of economic recovery revealed in recent monthly GDP figures.<\/p>\n It will be a light week in Europe in terms of economic data.<\/p>\n In China the rubber-stamped GDP figure will almost definitely explain how the beleaguered economy grew at around Beijing\u2019s reaffirmed target of 5%. No one will be astonished. Other China market moving releases include data on industrial production, retail sales, house prices for March and some Q1 credit data.<\/p>\n Beijing\u2019s back releasing unemployment data, now that the Bureau of Stats has been suitably purged of decent mathematicians.<\/p>\n According to Tony Sycamore from IG, the highlight of this week\u2019s data calendar will be Thursday\u2019s Labour Force report, proving we should all probably get out a little bit more.<\/p>\n \u201cThis month, the market expects the economy to lose 40k jobs and for the unemployment rate to rebound to 4% from 3.7%,\u201d Tony says.<\/p>\n \u201cAs the seasonal noise around the holiday period begins to subside, we expect to see further evidence of cooling within the labour market and reiterate our call for the RBA to cut rates by 25bp in August before a second cut in November, which will see the cash rate end the year at 3.85%.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0 MONDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY All sources:\u00a0IG Markets, S&P Global Market Intelligence, CommSec\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n The post Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to get ready for the week ahead<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ASX SECTORS & INDICES LAST WEEK<\/h2>\n
\n\u00a0<\/p>\nThe Week Ahead<\/h2>\n
The Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Tuesday April 15 \u2013 Friday April 19<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nIndonesia, Thailand Market Holiday
\nJapan Machinery Orders (Feb)
\nIndia WPI (Mar)
\nIndia Trade (Mar)
\nChina (Mainland) 1-Year MLF Announcement
\nTurkey Unemployment (Feb)
\nEurozone Industrial Production (Feb)
\nUnited States Retail Sales (Mar)
\nUnited States Business Inventories (Feb)
\nUnited States NAHB Housing Market (Apr)
\n\u00a0
\nTUESDAY
\nThailand Market Holiday
\nChina (Mainland) GDP (Q1)
\nChina (Mainland) Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed
\nAsset Investment (Mar)
\nChina (Mainland) Unemployment (Mar)
\nIndonesia Trade (Mar)
\nGermany Wholesale Prices (Mar)
\nUnited Kingdom Labour Market Report (Mar)
\nItaly Inflation (Mar, final)
\nEurozone Trade Balance (Feb)
\nEurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)
\nGermany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)
\nCanada Inflation (Mar)
\nUnited States Building Permits, Housing Starts (Mar)
\nUnited States Industrial Production (Mar)
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nIndia Market Holiday
\nNew Zealand Inflation (Q1)
\nJapan Trade (Mar)
\nSingapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (Mar)
\nUnited Kingdom Inflation (Mar)
\nSouth Africa Inflation (Mar)
\nEurozone Inflation (Mar, final)
\nBrazil Business Confidence (Apr)
\nUnited States Net Long-term TIC Flows (Feb)
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nAustralia Employment (Mar)
\nAustralia Unemployment Rate (Mar)
\nSwitzerland Trade Balance (Mar)
\nUnited States Existing Home Sales (Mar)
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nJapan Inflation (Mar)
\nMalaysia GDP (Q1, prelim)
\nGermany PPI (Mar)
\nUnited Kingdom Retail Sales (Mar)
\nFrance Business Confidence (Apr)
\nSpain Balance of Trade (Feb)
\nIndia RBI Meeting Minutes<\/p>\n