Aussie inflation came in lower than expected last week
\nThe ASX200 up 3.5pc YTD,\u00a0 now at all-time highs
\nThe week ahead: Busy for local data\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
T\u2019was a bullish Friday session in Sydney which closed out a positive quarter for Aussie equities.<\/p>\n
Aided by upbeat trading in New York and some further evidence of easing local inflation, Australian shares rose 1.6% last week with the Energy, Real Estate, Healthcare and Consumer Staples driving gains.<\/p>\n
The local market rallied 3.5% in the last month, propelling the ASX200 to fresh all-time highs.<\/p>\n
Around the traps, commodity prices were mixed with oil and copper up but iron ore down sharply.<\/p>\n
Gold climbed above US$2,250 an ounce on Monday, extending its rally to record levels as softer-than-expected US inflation data cemented bets that the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in June.<\/p>\n
That was the takeaway of mixed news from the world\u2019s more familiar central bankers, with US Fed Governor Waller leaning a bit more hawkish but Fed Chair Powell sounding pretty cool and calm and welcoming lower February core private final consumption inflation as \u201cdefinitely more along the lines of what we want to see\u201d.<\/p>\n
Powell suggested the strong US economy and jobs market might \u201cgive us the chance to be a little more confident about inflation coming down\u201d before heading downwards.<\/p>\n
Last week, J. Powell stood by the Fed\u2019s base case of three Fed rate cuts this year but is data dependent and still waiting for more confidence.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, in loopyland, ECB officials sounded dovish and the Swedish central bank flagged possible rate cuts in May or June.<\/p>\n
On Wall Street, all three of its main indices closed in the green, with the Dow Jones gaining the most and the S&P 500 securing a new closing record. The Nasdaq gained the least, perhaps dragged down by Nvidia, which closed in the red for a second straight session.<\/p>\n
More data suggesting that inflation in the US is proving stickier than expected could weigh on Wall Street.<\/p>\n
Data released on Friday showed that the Fed-preferred PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month in February, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in January which was also the consensus forecast.<\/p>\n
Even if delayed, the next move on US interest rates is likely to be lower, which is positive for firms that are valued by discounting free cash flows for the quarters and years ahead, while recent activity has shown that investors are willing to price more future growth opportunities related to artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n
US markets now see a nearly 70% chance that the Fed would start cutting rates in June, pricing in 75 basis points in total reductions this year.<\/p>\n
The Aussie fell slightly and the greenback rose slightly.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
On Friday, the ASX200 ended the first quarter of 2024 at fresh record highs and lock in a fifth consecutive month of gains.<\/p>\n
For the first quarter of 2024, the ASX200 stormed in a gain of 3.53%, while the ASX200 Accumulation index, which includes dividends, is set to end the quarter up 4.3% \u2014 about the same as the RBA\u2019s official cash rate (OCR).<\/p>\n
Of course, after last week\u2019s softer-than-expected inflation print and Friday\u2019s mundane 0.3% MoM rise in retail sales in February, IG Markets\u2019 Tony Sycamore says the OCR at such highs won\u2019t last.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe RBA\u2019s cash rate looks set to end the year closer to 3.85%, which adds to the comparative lure of the Australian stock market.\u201d<\/p>\n
The XJO has now gained 3.5% year-to-date\u2026<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Via Google<\/p>\n Via Google<\/em><\/p>\n Via MarketIndex<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The week ahead brings the Minutes of the RBA Board\u2019s March meeting. The post\u2011meeting Statement shifted to a neutral tone, and we would expect that to come through as well in the Minutes.<\/p>\n Second\u2011tier economic data, including home prices, building approvals and the goods trade balance will be released.<\/p>\n Offshore, a quiet week is ahead, with euro area inflation and US non\u2011farm payrolls in focus.<\/p>\n Investors will be closely watching a Chinese business confidence survey for indications that depressed sentiment is beginning to lift.<\/p>\n Caixin is scheduled to release its March services purchasing managers\u2019 index reading on Wednesday.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Tuesday April 2 \u2013 Friday April 5<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY \u00a0<\/p>\n Monday April 1 \u2013 Friday April 5<\/strong><\/p>\n MONDAY<\/strong><\/p>\n Monday 1 Apr Tuesday 2 Apr Wednesday 3 Apr Thursday 4 Apr Friday 5 Apr All sources:\u00a0IG Markets, S&P Global Market Intelligence, CommSec\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n The post Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to get ready for the week ahead<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"How the Sectors fared last week<\/strong><\/h2>\n
<\/h2>\n
The Week Ahead<\/h2>\n
The Aussie Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
\nJudo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final
\nRBA Kent Speech
\nRBA Meeting Minutes
\nANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM MAR
\nTD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM MAR
\nReserve Bank of Australia\u2019s Index of Commodity Prices
\nCoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM MAR<\/p>\n
\nAi Group Industry Index MAR
\nAi Group Construction Index
\nAi Group Manufacturing Index <\/p>\n
\nAustralia Retail Sales (Feb, prelim)
\nFeb private sector credit (Feb)
\nJob vacancies Q1
\nMI inflation expectations (Mar)
\nJudo Bank Services PMI Final
\nRBA Jones Speech
\nBuilding Permits MoM Prel FEB
\nPrivate House Approvals MoM Prel FEB
\nRetail Sales MoM Final <\/p>\n
\nAussie Balance of Trade FEB
\nExports MoM FEB
\nImports MoM FE<\/p>\nThe Everyone Else Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
\nUK, Eurozone, Switzerland, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong SAR, South Africa Market Holiday
\nJapan Tankan Survey (Q1)
\nSouth Korea Trade (Mar)
\nChina (Mainland) Caixin Manufacturing PMI* (Mar)
\nIndonesia Inflation (Mar)
\nUnited Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices (Mar)
\nUnited States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI* (Mar)
\nUnited States ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)<\/p>\n
\nWorldwide Manufacturing PMIs, incl. global PMI* released
\nacross April 1-2 (Mar)
\nSouth Korea CPI (Mar)
\nAustralia RBA Meeting Minutes (Mar)
\nSwitzerland Retail Sales (Feb)
\nUnited Kingdom Mortgage Lending and Approvals (Feb)
\nGermany Inflation (Mar, prelim)
\nUnited States JOLTs Job Openings (Feb)
\nUnited States Factory Orders (Feb)<\/p>\n
\nChina (Mainland) Services, Composite PMI* (Mar)
\nTurkey Inflation (Mar)
\nEurozone Inflation (Mar, flash)
\nBrazil Industrial Production (Feb)
\nUnited States ADP Employment Change (Mar)
\nUnited States S&P Global Services, Composite PMI* (Mar)
\nUnited States ISM Services PMI* (Mar)<\/p>\n
\nChina (Mainland), Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan Market Holiday
\nWorldwide Services, Composite PMIs, inc. global PMI*
\nreleased across April 3-4 (Mar)
\nAustralia Building Permits (Feb, prelim)
\nSwitzerland Inflation (Mar)
\nCanada Trade (Feb)
\nUnited States Trade (Feb)<\/p>\n
\nChina (Mainland) Taiwan Market Holiday
\nAustralia Trade (Feb)
\nPhilippines Inflation (Mar)
\nIndia RBI Interest Rate Decision
\nSingapore Retail Sales (Feb)
\nGermany Factory Orders (Feb)
\nUnited Kingdom Halifax House Price Index* (Mar)
\nFrance Industrial Production (Feb)
\nEurozone Construction PMI* (Mar)
\nUnited Kingdom Construction PMI* (Mar)
\nEurozone Retail Sales (Feb)
\nCanada Unemployment Rate (Mar)
\nUnited States Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate,
\nAverage Hourly Earnings (Mar)
\nS&P Global Sector PMI* (Mar)<\/p>\n