In 2024, ASX200\u00a0 grinding higher in\u00a0 \u201c3 steps forward, 2 steps back\u201d pattern
\nMarket Matters retain optimism towards equities, \u201cbut volatility likely to remain\u201d
\nThe week ahead: RBA decision (Tues), jobs data (Thursday), RBA\u2019s financial stability review (Friday)
\n\u201c[We] expect the RBA to remain on hold until September, at which time they should \u2026 slowly begin easing policy\u201d: Westpac<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
On Friday in Sydney, the Aussie benchmark got kicked hard out of the gate following a night of more Wall Street weakness \u2013 and after about 15 minutes of trade the top 200 index had given up a startling 124 points.<\/p>\n
But \u2013 in typical ASX200 style \u2013 just when the dummy was launching from the lips, the sideline benches emptied and the dip-buying which had threatened for much of the week finally broke out \u2013 investors spent much of the arvo session hovering up the sharpest of the morning losses to end the XJO\u2019s index re-weighting session down about 0.55%.<\/p>\n
The ASX200 called it a week at 7,670.30 points, after 5 discombobulating sessions.<\/p>\n
On March 15,\u00a0 the S&P\/ASX200\u00a0 ended 43 points or 0.56%\u00a0 lower:<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Via ASX<\/em><\/p>\n According to the ASX, the benchmark index has lost 2.25% over the week and sits 2.33% below its 52-week high.<\/p>\n Far weirder is this\u00a0 (below) \u2013 a comparative chart one doesn\u2019t see to regularly on the resources-laden ASX200:<\/p>\n Via Google<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Yes. The big miners are sucking in a big way so far in 2024 and played a major role in the benchmark\u2019s worst week\u00a0 since September.<\/p>\n The major banks and the big iron ore miners were behind much of the bleeding as the big 4 copped a slew of downgrades and iron ore slumped ever closer to US$100.<\/p>\n So far in 2024 there\u2019s been 3 decent-sized pullbacks, and its only the Ides of March, with a long way to go.<\/p>\n According to Shaw and Partners\u2019 James Gerrish, also CIO at Market Matters year-to-date the ASX200 has ground higher in a \u201cthree steps forward, two steps back\u201d attack pattern.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile stock and sector rotation continue to dominate the market, investors have become increasingly comfortable selling into strength as valuations stretch on the upside.<\/p>\n \u201cWith the path of interest rates keeping investors fixated on economic data, we envisage an ongoing choppy\/volatile market until we enjoy more clarity from the Fed, RBA, et al.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe rates will start falling in 2024, but it may be a few months later than investors are hoping for,\u201d James says.<\/p>\n Market Matters retain their optimism towards equities, \u201cbut volatility is likely to remain elevated\u201d this FY.<\/p>\n Oil (WTI) finished strongly higher last week at US$81.00 up 4% and at five months highs.<\/p>\n Gold on the other hand took a breather following hotter-than-expected US CPI and PPI data, down 1% to around $2155 as US yields and the greenback gained.<\/p>\n A near 6% surge in copper prices will keep commodity traders engaged this week \u2013 it certainly sets up a fascinating day on the ASX on on Monday.<\/p>\n Materials and Industrials were the worst of the 11 ASX sectors last week, although Financials and Telcos were major contenders.<\/p>\n Utilities and Real Estate did just fine.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Via MarketIndex<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Wall Street ended a week of elevated volatility with more losses on Friday in New York.<\/p>\n Over in the US, retail sales were softer and February\u2019s CPI came in a touch firmer than expected at 3.2%yr.<\/p>\n Wall Street\u2019s 3 major indices ended last week in the red. The Dow, not by much, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2% and the broader S&P500 was down 0.13%.<\/p>\n Ahead of this week\u2019s FOMC meeting the risks are the Fed\u2019s median dot will show just two rate cuts in 2024, down from the three cuts projected in December. The rates market is pricing in 71bp of cuts, the lowest since October 2023. A rate cut at the June FOMC meeting is now a coin flip.<\/p>\n \u201cBefore we can conclusively determine if last week marked a significant shift in sentiment across equity markets, there needs to be some allowance for Nvidia to again ride to the rescue,\u201d says IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n On Tuesday the RBA Board will meet to talk interest rates and consider what the recent inflation gauge, the Q4 National Accounts and Wage Price Index, say about the direction of monetary policy.<\/p>\n Westpac\u2019s economic team holds the view\u00a0 that the RBA will be \u201ccomforted\u201d by recent developments, given the Board\u2019s aim to bring demand back into line with supply and ensure inflation continues to trend lower.<\/p>\n \u201cWe continue to expect the RBA to remain on hold until September, at which time they should have enough confidence in the inflation outlook to slowly begin easing policy.\u201d<\/p>\n After Tuesday\u2019s RBA interest rate meeting, we will roll on into jobs data on Thursday, and then it\u2019s back to Martin Place for the RBA\u2019s Financial Stability Review on Friday.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Monday March 18 \u2013 Friday March 22<\/strong><\/p>\n MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY \u00a0<\/p>\n Monday March 18 \u2013 Friday March 22<\/strong><\/p>\n MONDAY<\/strong> TUESDAY<\/strong> WEDNESDAY<\/strong> THURSDAY<\/strong> FRIDAY<\/strong> \u00a0<\/p>\n All sources:\u00a0IG Markets, S&P Global Market Intelligence, CommSec\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n The post Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to get ready for the week ahead<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"How the Sectors fared last week<\/strong><\/h2>\n
In the States\u2026<\/h2>\n
Australia: The Week Ahead<\/h2>\n
The Aussie Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
\nNope<\/p>\n
\nRBA Decision<\/p>\n
\nNothing<\/p>\n
\nRBA speak Chief Operating Officer
\nFeb employment change
\nFeb unemployment rate<\/p>\n
\nRBA Financial Stability Review<\/p>\nThe Everyone Else Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
\nJP Jan core machinery orders
\nCH Feb retail sales ytd
\nCH Feb industrial production ytd
\nCH Feb fixed asset investment ytd
\nEU Jan trade balance
\nUS Mar NAHB housing market index<\/p>\n
\nJP BoJ policy decision
\nEU Mar ZEW survey of expectations
\nUS Feb housing starts
\nUS Feb building permits<\/p>\n
\nEU Mar consumer confidence
\nUK Feb CPI %yr
\nUS FOMC policy decision<\/p>\n
\nJP Mar Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI
\nJP Mar Jibun Bank services PMI
\nEU Mar HCOB manufacturing PMI
\nEU Mar HCOB services PMI
\nUK Mar S&P Global manufacturing PMI
\nUK Mar S&P Global services PMI
\nUK BoE policy decision
\nUS Mar Phily Fed index
\nUS Feb leading index
\nUS Mar S&P Global manufacturing PMI
\nUS Mar S&P Global services PMI
\nUS Feb existing home sales
\nUS Initial jobless claims<\/p>\n
\nJP Feb CPI %yr
\nGer Mar IFO business climate survey
\nUK Mar GfK consumer sentiment
\nUK Feb retail sales
\nUS Fedspeak (Bostic)<\/p>\n