\u00a0<\/p>\n
Largely happy US inflation data last week \u2013 the US PCE came in as expected \u2013 has pretty much left everyone including The Chaps at The Fed on track to cut rates from around mid-year. There is relief and a rally.<\/p>\n
At home, Australian inflation actually looks like it\u2019s falling faster than Team RBA have been hoping for.<\/p>\n
Soft retail sales last week provided \u201cfurther reason to ignore the RBA\u2019s hawkish bias\u201d in their latest statement, says City Index market analyst Matt Simpson.<\/p>\n
The January monthly CPI came in weaker than expected, holding at 3.4% year-on-year and the underlying measures also falling slightly.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s a picture:<\/p>\n
Via AMP<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n So the only thing inflating at a surprise rate last week were global equity markets.<\/p>\n Wall Street, the Eurozone and Japanese shares all clocked new record highs during the week, while the ASX200 stomped in for some of that action on Friday.<\/p>\n For the week US shares rose 0.9%, Eurozone shares rose 0.4% and Japanese shares rose 2.1%. Chinese shares rose 1.4% on hopes for more policy stimulus.<\/p>\n The local benchmark index added a Stormin\u2019 Norman sized 1.8% for the week, with impetus drawn from the giddy and upbeat global sentiment, a surprisingly-not-terrible earnings season laden with future promise.<\/p>\n The dormant local resources sector also peered above the parapets of lower commodity prices after a pretty quiet 2024.<\/p>\n James Gerrish of Shaw and Partners and Market Matters notes the manufacturing data from China was slightly better than expected on Friday and that also helped the local miners rally, with iron ore majors rising despite the itchy and scratchy nature of iron ore futures. BHP added 2.25% on Friday.<\/p>\n And the ASX usually comes home with a wet sail when that happens.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve spoken about the resources needing to join the move, and if they did, the ASX200 could quickly be at 8000,\u201d Gerrish says.<\/p>\n \u201cSo far so good \u2013 with the market only ~3% away.\u201d<\/p>\n On the whole, the broader All Ords (XAO) earnings estimates have been revised lower, but being a resources heavy market, the main cause of that is weaker global commodity prices.<\/p>\n Everything else seems to be working pretty good, and TBFH, I read somewhere something about\u2026 past performance being no guarantee of future results\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n The strong Friday session which led to the new record highs \u2013 and the sixth weekly gain from seven attempts \u2013 was in large part a domestic driven event with Materials adding 2% and Energy finding 1% by the end of the session. The combo outstripped another fabulous run for local IT \u2013 an ongoing solo standout \u2013 up 1.9% on Friday, to end the week a lazy 9.6% higher.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n\n Gains on the benchmark were led by IT, consumer stocks, property and the banks and insurers.<\/p>\n While oil and gold prices rose, copper and iron ore fell, but Materials made something of a comeback aided and abetted by the return of hope in lithium stocks.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Via MarketIndex<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Bond yields rose in Europe, were flat in Japan but fell in the US and here in Aussie.<\/p>\n According to CoreLogic, February\u2019s 0.6% gain in Australian house prices is the fastest pace of growth since October. While CoreLogic\u2019s head of numbers Tim Lawless is cautious on the outlook, the boffins at UBS reckon house prices should rise somewhere between 3% and 5% this year.<\/p>\n With stretched valuations and positive investor sentiment share markets remain at risk of a short term pullback but are still managing to grind higher helped by a combination of mostly OK economic and earnings news, ongoing expectations for rate cuts and enthusiasm for AI.<\/p>\n While Australian shares are lagging partly because of their little exposure to AI they are still managing to benefit from stronger global markets, prospects for RBA rate cuts later this year and the earnings reporting season being out of the way without major mishaps.<\/p>\n On Wall Street last week <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n The Nasdaq Composite swooned to an all-time high Friday, surpassing its 2021 record, as investors bet that megacap technology stocks were the best way to play slowing inflation and a coming artificial intelligence boom.<\/p>\n The tech-heavy advanced 1.14% to 16,274.94, clocking a new high of 16,302.24 during the session.<\/p>\n A day earlier, the index closed at its first record since November 2021.<\/p>\n The fatter S&P 500 added 0.80% to 5,137.08 for its first close above the 5,100 threshold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 90.99 points, or 0.23%, to 39,087.38.<\/p>\n Everyone\u2019s fave chipmaking monster Nvidia, which has led the tech rally by surging more than 260% over the last 12 months, was up another easy 4% Friday.<\/p>\n Meta also jumped more than 2% for the day.<\/p>\n For the week, the Nasdaq added 1.74%, while the S&P 500, which also popped to a record close on Thursday, advanced 0.95%. Both indexes notched their seventh positive week over the last eight.<\/p>\n The 30-stock Dow is the laggard, down 0.11%.<\/p>\n Can BTC keep its head?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Bitcoin went on a roll last week, surging toward its all-time high and racking up its biggest monthly gain since December 2020, Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro told Stockhead<\/em>.<\/p>\n \u201cThe reigning star of the crypto market recently touched a new peak, reaching AU$98,000 as the crypto asset surged as high as US$64,000, just shy of the record-high $69,000 it hit in 2021,\u201d says Josh.<\/p>\n The latest bull run, which saw its market cap jump to a staggering $1.2T, was fueled by several factors, including the spot Bitcoin ETF boom that opened the door for mainstream investors and an upcoming halving event.<\/p>\n \u201cBitcoin ETFs have piqued interest on a massive scale, with their substantial trading volumes and billions of dollars of inflows highlighting the increasing trend of institutional investors wanting exposure to Bitcoin.<\/p>\n \u201cA supply squeeze accompanies the increase in demand, too. Investors continue to hold their Bitcoin rather than spend, with 70% of all Bitcoin in circulation currently not having moved in over a year, and the amount readily available for purchase on exchanges is at the lowest level since early 2018. The biggest financial institutions in the world, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, are not just observing this trend, but also actively participating, purchasing Bitcoin in significant volumes.\u201d<\/p>\n Upcoming events like the Bitcoin halving and mid-year rate cuts, continued inflows into ETFs, and revived retail interest could potentially propel the bull market into six-figure territory.<\/p>\n \u201cIn this scenario, it\u2019s easy for investors to feel FOMO,\u201d Josh warns.<\/p>\n \u201cHowever, it\u2019s important to remember your risk profile and understand that Bitcoin is still a volatile asset class that has a history of wild price fluctuations.\u201d The highlight in Australia this week will be the December quarter National Accounts, with Business Indicators and the Balance of Payments data both dropping beforehand.<\/p>\n The Reserve Bank meets across the 18-19th March to determine rates and investors will watch Q4 GDP for smoke signals.<\/p>\n Predictions from the RBA indicate it\u2019s likely to remain subdued, reflecting the continuing concerns around cost of living and interest rates and CBA expects the release on Wednesday to confirm this.<\/p>\n \u201cOur preliminary estimate is for GDP growth of 0.2%\/qtr and 1.4%\/yr. We will firm up our estimate after the remainder of the partial data released on Monday and Tuesday,\u201d says Belinda Allen.<\/p>\n Over at Westpac, senior economist Andrew Hanlan expects a \u2018flattish quarter\u2019 for national output.<\/p>\n \u201cA view informed by significant weakness in hours worked and likely declines in both goods imports and goods exports, as well as a softening of private business surveys.<\/p>\n \u201cWe assess that the domestic demand growth pulse is likely weakly positive for the quarter,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n Via Westpac<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n In the states, the Americans have a January labor report and a whole bunch of Fed-speaking officials, including Chair J. Powell\u2019s half yearly monetary policy chat with Congress.<\/p>\n There\u2019s US indicators like the ISM Services PMI, JOLTS job openings, factory orders.<\/p>\n Aside from ours, there\u2019s trade data for other major global exporters such as Germany, Brazil, France, China, and Canada to be watched closely, along with services PMIs for China, Spain, Italy, and Brazil.<\/p>\n This week in China is all about the key National People\u2019s Congress, in the shadow of a services PMI which delivered a big rebound \u2013 albeit courtesy of the Lunar New Year spending boost.<\/p>\n Unemployment still looks shot and China\u2019s generally subdued outlook makes a sustained rebound muchos unlikely.<\/p>\n The continued drop in construction PMI means property remains a key risk. The NBS manufacturing PMI remained stuck in contraction.<\/p>\n Chinese inflation data is due and \u2013 considering the spotlight will be on the political circus this week \u2013 one can almost bet the apartment in Shanghai that deflation miraculously eased in February when compared to January.<\/p>\n And the timing of the Lunar New Year excitement can happily explain whatever decent number comes up.<\/p>\n The European Central Bank (ECB) get together on Thursday and Ms Lagarde and her lackeys are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. I would. She\u2019s the boss.<\/p>\n Her assessment that the EU economy is weak and that EU inflation is decelerating aligns with Christine\u2019s instruction that more evidence is needed on slower wages before rates are cut.<\/p>\n CBA\u2019s senior economist Belinda Allen says this is likely to occur in June.<\/p>\n The Bank of Canada is also expected to leave rates unchanged. The statement will be important to watch for how much longer the restrictive stance will be maintained. Both the US and Canada release labour market data at the end of next week.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n All sources:\u00a0IG Markets, S&P Global Market Intelligence, CommSec\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY \u00a0<\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n The post Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"What the (ASX200) benchmark\u2019s been doing lately<\/h2>\n
How the Sectors fared last week<\/h2>\n
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n
\u00a0The Week Ahead<\/h2>\n
The Aussie Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Monday March 4 \u2013 Friday March 8<\/h2>\n
\nBuilding Approvals, Jan
\nBusiness Indicators, Q4 23
\nCompany profits
\nInventories
\nMelbourne Institute Inflation YoY<\/p>\n
\nBalance of Payments, Q4 23
\nCurrent account balance
\nNet exports contribution
\nJudo Bank PMIs<\/p>\n
\nGDP drops<\/p>\n
\nLending indicators, Jan
\nGoods, trade balance<\/p>\n
\nNada<\/p>\nThe Everyone Else Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Monday March 4 \u2013 Friday March 8<\/h2>\n
\nKR S&P Global Manufacturing PMI FEB
\nTurkey Inflation Rate FEB<\/p>\n
\nUS Fedspeak (Harker)
\nKR GDP Growth Rate Final Q4
\nGB BRC Retail Sales Monitor FEB
\nJP Jibun Bank Services PMI Final FEB
\nCN Caixin Services PMI FEB
\nCN National People\u2019s Congress begins<\/p>\n
\nKR Inflation rate
\nUS S&P Global Composite PMI Final FEB
\nUS S&P Global Services PMI Final FEB
\nUS ISM Services PMI FEB
\nUS Factory Orders MoM JAN
\nUS RCM\/TIPP Economic Optimism Index MAR
\nUS Fedspeak (Barr)
\nUS API Crude Oil Stock Change
\nGermany Balance of trade
\nGB Spring Budget 2024
\nCN National People\u2019s Congress<\/p>\n
\nUS ADP Employment Change FEB
\nCA BoC Interest Rate Decision
\nUS Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congree
\nUS JOLTs Job Openings JAN
\nUS EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change MAR
\nUS EIA Gasoline Stocks Change MAR
\nUS Fedspeak (Daly)
\nCN Balance of Trade JAN-FEB
\nGermany Factory Orders JAN<\/p>\n
\nEU ECB Interest Rate Decision
\nCA Balance of Trade JAN
\nUS Balance of Trade JAN
\nUS Initial Jobless Claims MAR
\nUS Fed Chair Powell Testimony
\nUS Fedspeak Mester
\nJP Current Account JAN
\nDE Industrial Production JAN
\nGermany PPI Jan
\nFR Balance of Trade JAN
\nEU Employment Change Q4
\nGDP Growth Rate
\nUS Fedspeak (Williams)
\nCN National People\u2019s Congress<\/p>\n