\u00a0<\/p>\n
Some anxious notes on the Fedspeak song sheet and guilty euphoria around Nvidia (NVDA) earnings drove global markets last week.<\/p>\n
Without much actual guidance on the data front, US stocks ended the shortened \u2013 but memorable \u2013 week muddled.<\/p>\n
In the middle somewhere, Nvidia\u2019s cracking earnings report<\/a> spawned fresh records on Wall Street.<\/p>\n There were more gains for the Dow Jones but some jittery big tech profit-taking and another flat tyre for Tesla (TSLA) punctured the Nasdaq<\/p>\n The S&P500 hit 5100 for the first time, but woke the next morning looking pale and sickly at what it\u2019d done the day before.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Via Google<\/p>\n Unbridled enthusiasm for AI (Artificial Intelligence) remains the driver and the anxiety for the Us majors, thrown into sharp relief by the moneybags on display last at AI chip making monster NVDA, offsetting the bummer about the US Fed being unlikely to cut interest rates apace..<\/p>\n For the week US shares rose 1.7%. EU stocks were up too\u00a0 Japanese shares rose 1.6% and finally made it past their 29 December 1989 bubble years\u2019 high. They also went into recession.<\/p>\n Still. Evwn the Chinese traders managed to pause the slow-mo train wreck long enough for the CSI 300 to rise by an unfamiliar 3.5% for the week as easing measures gained traction.<\/p>\n Despite the positive global lead Australian shares fell 0.2% for the week.<\/p>\n The IT and Utilities rose nicely,\u00a0 not quite offsetting losses for Resources, and Consumer Staples.<\/p>\n The minutes from the last Fed meeting reiterated that it is seeing progress in reducing inflation but wants more evidence that it will be sustained and is wary about moving too quickly to cut rates with stronger economic activity data lately providing them with flexibility. \u200b<\/p>\n The planned deluge of Fedspeak last week \u200bhammered this home (to anyone listening).<\/p>\n The\u200b\u00a0RBA\u200b\u00a0minutes from February\u00a0repeated the \u200bold\u00a0RBA\u200b adage that the Board could\u2019ve hiked (but didn\u2019t) and kinda\u00a0now sees the risks to the outlook \u200beasing supporting the forecast that\u00a0inflation will \u200br\u200beturn to target \u200bbut \u2019till then\u00a0retains a mild tightening bias whereas the Fed and ECB are more neutral.<\/p>\n There is nothing new in any of this, \u200bsays\u00a0Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist\u00a0\u200bat AMP\u200b, but it \u200bdoes serve as a\u00a0remind\u200be\u200br that\u00a0we still have a way to go in terms of actually seeing rate cuts and market expectations have consequently become more tempered as a result.<\/p>\n \u200b\u201dAnd reflecting the lag in inflation in Australia compared to other countries, the RBA is not surprisingly still lagging the Fed and will likely do so when it comes to starting to cut rates.<\/p>\n \u200b\u201dWhile the road to lower inflation is likely to remain bumpy, we continue to see sufficient progress such that the Fed and ECB will cut rates around five times this year starting in the June quarter and the RBA will cut by around three times starting mid-year\u200b,\u201d Dr Oliver says.<\/p>\n Last week also saw local annual wages growth (that read was in the December quarter) rise at its fastest pace since 2009, resulting in the first rise in real wages since 2021. That was less helpful for the RBA, although Dr Oliver reckons that might already be peak wage growth for the moment.<\/p>\n \u200b\u201dWe would concede\u200b\u00a0that the risk in Australia is that the cuts could start a bit later around August\/September.\u200b\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Local earnings wrap it all up this week \u2013 yet there\u2019s still about 40 or so blur chips yet to show their cards.<\/p>\n In the Financial Sector \u2013 there\u2019s major insurer NIB Holdings (ASX:NHF)<\/strong><\/a> and Suncorp Group (ASX:SUN)<\/strong><\/a> ; Retailers it\u2019s Coles Group (ASX:COL)<\/strong><\/a> and and Harvey Norman Holdings (ASX:HVN)<\/strong><\/a> ; Healthcare has Ramsay Health Care (ASX:RHC)<\/strong><\/a> while Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS)<\/strong><\/a> and Worley (ASX:WOR)<\/strong><\/a> lead out the resources and industrial clans.<\/p>\n So with 1H reporting season circa 80% done, the scoreboard is less pleasing to the eye\u2026<\/p>\n\n The fiery start has cooled right off off a bit with the level of companies beating earnings expectations now just a smidge better than average.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n\n According to research at AMP, beats so far have beaten misses \u2013 but that ratio\u2019s tightened with 42% of results surprising on the upside with 38% startling on the downside, which is only just a bit better than the long-term average for both of around 41%.<\/p>\n 54% of companies have increased their dividends on a year ago which is up a bit from last week but it\u2019s below the norm of 59% and a greater than usual 32% have cut their dividends, which overall suggests a degree of caution.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n So in the states, with Wall Street\u2019s own interminable earnings season finally winding down, attention this week returns to the battle that matters most \u2013 economic growth vs inflation.<\/p>\n The focus this week falls on US January core PCE, personal spending, consumer confidence and home prices.<\/p>\n As of the weekend the US rates market is pricing in a 68bp of rate cuts for 2024 \u2013 from 167bp in early January.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll be wathing for signs of sense from the baffling US Congress this week, which among many other simple tasks needs to SORT out the now usual spending package problems \u2013 they\u2019ll need to drop some sort of resolution to authorise spending and avoid the now familiar partial government shutdown \u2013 this one\u2019s from 1 March.<\/p>\n The EU drops inflation data for February. Japan drops inflation for January.<\/p>\n China probably very reluctantly will share\u00a0business conditions PMIs for February\u200b.<\/p>\n January is already up for its CPI post-mortem on Wednesday. We also have December quarter construction spending, business investment iand January retail sales.<\/p>\n Shane says CoreLogic data for February which drops this week will likely show a 0.6% gain in Australian home prices, up from 0.4% in January, as the prospect of rate cuts ahead and the shortage of supply continue to offset the negative impact of high mortgage rates.<\/p>\n The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (Wednesday) is expected to leave its cash rate on hold at 5.5%. I am not expecting to be engaged.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n All sources:\u00a0IG Markets, S&P Global Market Intelligence, CommSec\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY <\/span><\/p>\n The post Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Aussie 1H Earnings in 20 seconds<\/h2>\n
The Week Ahead<\/h2>\n
The Aussie Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Monday February 26 \u2013 Friday March 1<\/h2>\n
\nNope<\/p>\n
\nNada<\/p>\n
\nConstruction done
\nMonthly CPI Indicator, Jan<\/p>\n
\nRetail Sales (Jan, prelim)
\nCapex, Q4 23
\nRBA Private Sector Credit, Jan<\/p>\n
\nCoreLogic House prices<\/p>\nThe Everyone Else Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Monday February 26 \u2013 Friday March 1<\/h2>\n
\nThailand Market Holiday
\nSingapore Industrial Production (Jan)
\nUnited States New Home Sales (Jan)<\/p>\n
\nJapan Inflation (Jan)
\nGermany GfK Consumer Confidence (Feb)
\nFrance Consumer Confidence (Feb)
\nTaiwan Export Orders (Jan)
\nHong Kong SAR Trade (Jan)
\nUnited States Durable Goods Orders (Jan)
\nUnited States S&P\/Case-Shiller Home Price (Dec)
\nUnited States CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)<\/p>\n
\nTaiwan Market Holiday
\nNew Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate decision
\nThailand Industrial Production (Jan)
\nHong Kong SAR GDP (Q4, final)
\nEurozone Economic Sentiment (Feb)
\nUnited States GDP (Q4, 2nd est.)
\nUnited States Wholesale Inventories (Jan)<\/p>\n
\nJapan Industrial Production (Jan, prelim)
\nJapan Retail Sales (Jan)
\nGermany Retail Sales (Jan)
\nUnited Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices (Feb)
\nTurkey GDP (Q4)
\nFrance Inflation (Feb, prelim)
\nFrance GDP (Q4, final)
\nSwitzerland GDP (Q4)
\nTaiwan GDP (Q4, final)
\nGermany Unemployment Rate (Feb)
\nUnited Kingdom Mortgage Lending and Approvals (Feb)
\nIndia GDP (Q4)
\nGermany Inflation (Feb, prelim)
\nCanada GDP (Q4)
\nUnited States Core PCE Price Index (Jan)
\nUnited States Personal Income and Spending (Jan)<\/p>\n
\nSouth Korea Market Holiday
\nWorldwide Manufacturing PMIs, incl. global PMI (Feb)
\nSouth Korea Trade (Feb)
\nChina (mainland) NBS PMI (Feb)
\nIndonesia Inflation (Feb)
\nJapan Consumer Confidence (Feb)
\nEurozone Inflation (Feb, flash)
\nItaly GDP (Q4)
\nItaly Inflation (Feb, prelim)
\nBrazil GDP (Q4)
\nUnited States ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)<\/p>\n