{"id":6163,"date":"2024-02-21T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-21T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=6163"},"modified":"2024-02-21T11:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-02-21T11:00:00","slug":"free-whelan-in-this-climate-a-bear-doesnt-just-sit-in-the-woods","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=6163","title":{"rendered":"FREE WHELAN: In this climate a bear doesn\u2019t just sit in the woods"},"content":{"rendered":"

In this Stockhead series, investment manager James Whelan, managing director Barclay Pearce Capital Asset Management<\/a>, offers his insights on the key investment themes and trends in domestic and global markets. From macro musings to the metaverse and everything in between, Whelan offers his distilled thoughts on the hot topic of the day, week, month or year, from the point of view of a professional money manager.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

A note to start that, if not joined already, I am strongly encouraging colleagues and clients to please join our NRL tipping comp<\/a>! It\u2019s an innovative comp with a little fun as we go. Sometimes you need some time away from the buzz of markets.<\/p>\n

Now on with the usual programming.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Hydrogen v. Lithium<\/h2>\n

Hydrogen is first off the list and I put out a hydrogen note a little while ago so I won\u2019t go over it again but there\u2019s been a few discoveries of natural hydrogen around the world, the \u201cbig one\u201d being the 200 tonnes per annum discovery in Albania.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s always been an issue for my favourite transportation method with the creation of hydrogen and the storage of it.<\/p>\n

Having significant quantities flowing freely from the ground does solve a big part of that problem. I prefer to invest in the tech that uses hydrogen as opposed to the parties trying to create it so if the supply is easier than that\u2019s better for the industry gaining ground on the lithium mob.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

This is positive\u2026<\/h2>\n

Via FT<\/em><\/p>\n

It\u2019s estimated that 5trn tonnes of hydrogen exists underground and that, according to the project leader at the US Geological Survey, \u201cMost hydrogen is likely inaccessible, but a few per cent recovery would still supply all projected demand \u2014 500mn tonnes a year \u2014 for hundreds of years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Were this to be the case a number of projects become unsustainable (because alternative sources are more viable) but the positive part is how much cheaper it makes the fuel.<\/p>\n

Good things ahead.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Inflation<\/h2>\n

We really are a Tale of Two Countries when it comes to inflationary data and the US. There\u2019s a few reasons why. Ours, particularly in services, is declining quite slowly.<\/p>\n

This would be a big one.<\/p>\n

Via RBA<\/em><\/p>\n

With this still in the pipes. Yes we\u2019ve passed the peak but there\u2019s a fatter tail of loans coming off fixed to variable.<\/p>\n

So. Look out!<\/p>\n

Via CBA<\/em>
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

The woods, we\u2019re still in them<\/h2>\n

So no we\u2019re not out of the woods yet and I hold fast that cuts are quicker than expected over 2024. I was right about the margin in the Super Bowl<\/a> so surely I can be right about this too??!<\/p>\n

In that vein and in light of my whole schtick this year of righting classic, usually panicky wrongs that at first glance look shocking but always need to be extrapolated\u2026 here\u2019s<\/em> something that seems like a panic in the US, but isn\u2019t, but which is actually a bit <\/em>of a worthwhile panic here:<\/p>\n

Take the fact that if people are working two jobs it means things are bad, right?<\/p>\n

In the US, 5.1% of the labor force is working two, which could be a panic. But, in fact it\u2019s actually below where it was during the sweet economic (but awful fashion) period of the mid to late \u201990s.<\/p>\n

Via St Louis Fed<\/em><\/p>\n

Now in Australia, we have the percentage of people working two jobs above 6.5%.<\/p>\n

Do we have the same healthy situation?\n<\/p>\n

No, we don\u2019t.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve actually seen this data back to the mid \u201990s and it\u2019s about 5.4% then.<\/p>\n

Things are tight locally but there\u2019s still work and people are working. There\u2019s also levers to pull to ease the squeeze.<\/p>\n

Bank reporting continues to show that loan losses are low. People, in this country, find a way forward.<\/p>\n

In the US all signs point to a No Landing scenario with an economy booming and a market to match. I\u2019ll go into that in more detail next week.<\/p>\n

We do touch on this and more in the latest cut of the podcast where I\u2019m joined by the amazing David Scutt of StoneX group<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Stay safe and all the best,<\/p>\n

James<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interview in this article are solely those of the writer and do not represent the views of Stockhead.<\/em><\/p>\n

Stockhead has not provided, endorsed or otherwise assumed responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

The post FREE WHELAN: In this climate a bear doesn\u2019t just sit in the woods<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In this Stockhead series, investment manager James Whelan, managing director Barclay Pearce Capital Asset Management, offers his insights on the key investment themes and trends [more…]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":6164,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance"],"yoast_head":"\nFREE WHELAN: In this climate a bear doesn\u2019t just sit in the woods - Economic Herald<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=6163\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FREE WHELAN: In this climate a bear doesn\u2019t just sit in the woods - 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