\u00a0<\/p>\n
First up, Aussie inflation is falling faster than the boffins at the RBA were expecting \u2013 down to 4.1%yoy in the December quarter which is well below the central bank\u2019s forecast of 4.5%.<\/p>\n
Inflation was 5.4% in the previous quarter and clocked 7.8% this time last year.<\/p>\n
According to AMP senior economist Diana Mousina, services inflation in this country is finally heading lower now too, off in pursuit of already falling goods price inflation.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat\u2019s more the proportion of items seeing greater than 3% inflation has fallen sharply to 43% which is consistent with the pre-pandemic norm and monthly CPI inflation fell to 3.4%yoy in December.\u201d<\/p>\n
The US Fed\u2019s made it clear it might not be cutting and its new priority is to talk traders down from their giddy heights.<\/p>\n
EU inflation meanwhile, fell to 2.8% in January with core inflation down to 3.3%yoy. Diana says Brussels is starting to cluck like more like a dove.<\/p>\n
Christine and the ECB are likely to start cutting in April, AMP believes.<\/p>\n
And all that\u2019s been great for Aussie stocks.<\/p>\n
AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver warns this doesn\u2019t mean there won\u2019t be corrections.<\/p>\n
Chinese property, war and sticky uncertainty \u201ccould provide a trigger for a pullback\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn fact, we saw a bit of the latter in the last week with the US share market initially falling after the Fed pushed back against expectations for a March rate cut,\u201d Oliver says.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Via MarketIndex<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n In the US\u2026<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Last week the S&P500 and Dow Jones IA each put on a circa 1.4% gain, while the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite collected 1.1%, a fourth week of wins for the three majors. Wall Street\u2019s latest record high followed Friday\u2019s blowout payroll report which ticked the Confidence in the Economy box, despite adding weight to the Fed\u2019s Wait and See caution.<\/p>\n The blockbuster Friday jobs data also drummed up trader confidence in the outlook for corporate activity.\u00a0 Which naturally sparked yet another wildfire rally across tech stocks, with the accelerant provided this time by Meta\u2019s surprise first-ever quarterly dividend, which saw the stock rise by a thunderous 21%.<\/p>\n Down the hall, Amazon exploded 8.3% after its own quarterly bonanza.<\/p>\n No surprise then that the US Tech100 closed the week at an all-time high of 17680. It\u2019s up 8% in four weeks, 41% in 12 months.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Chinese markets\u2026<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Over the weekend Barclays warned that China could face \u2018a prolonged deflationary environment,\u2019 with weakened domestic demand exacerbating overcapacity issues. Not a stellar combo, and not when confidence continues to flag.<\/p>\n Commodities\u2026<\/p>\n Reports of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are surely cut from the same mad cloth that started it all in October and a few thousand years before that; still, the notion of peace breaking out across the land smashed oil prices last week.<\/p>\n Crude futures crashed more than 6% over the week, a pall of positivity from looming interest rate cuts in the US, iced on Friday by non-farm payrolls.<\/p>\n The US WTI benchmark has struggled with good news all week.<\/p>\n Especially the loopy idea that this business in the Middle East might settle down. But continued Allied air strikes across Iraq and Syria \u2013 but with Iran\u2019s name on it \u2013\u00a0 won\u2019t do much to mute the dull roar out of the Red Sea.<\/p>\n Oil boffins are structurally a barrel half-full bunch and apparently remain hopeful some kind of truce in Gaza means some kind of end to the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.<\/p>\n A Qatari official has said there\u2019s no ceasefire. And somehow Qatar is the voice of reason this time.<\/p>\n Then there\u2019s the realisation China won\u2019t be coming to the party like before.<\/p>\n Now the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is saying China\u2019s economic recovery will be even more glacial with the fund pegging annual growth for this year at 4.6% to around 3.5% in 2028, further impacting crude demand.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, OPEC+ kept its current production policy, keeping output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in place for the first quarter. On the demand side, according to the EIA, worldwide demand will likely increase by 2 million barrels per day in 2024, much more demanding than the previous forecast of 1.24 million bpd.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n At home, the Reserve Bank meets on Tuesday.<\/p>\n Market pricing suggests it\u2019s a hold, but if there\u2019s a gun, we best not jump it.<\/p>\n Fourth quarter retail volumes will drop while the ABS will also deliver the goods trade balance for December.<\/p>\n In New York, US corporate earnings return to centre stage.<\/p>\n The list incudes big boppers like Messrs McDonald\u2019s, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Amgen, Walt Disney, Uber, S&P Global, Philip Morris, and Conoco Phillips.<\/p>\n The speakers of the US Federal Reserve will be highly attended, as will be US trade balance data.<\/p>\n Central bankers again light up the global docket.<\/p>\n Aside from our own interest rate decision,\u00a0 there\u2019s calls to be made in India, the Philippines, Thailand, and Poland, while new cash rates are due out of Turkey, Brazil, and Mexico.<\/p>\n In China, the Caixin Services PMI drops as well as indicators for both consumer and producer prices.<\/p>\n Germany is bracing for a look at gloomy factory orders and industrial production data, both of which are likely to spark a little schadenfreude across the EU.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n All sources:\u00a0IG Markets, S&P Global Market Intelligence, CommSec\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY<\/p>\n FRIDAY \u00a0<\/p>\n Monday 5 Feb<\/strong> Tuesday 6 Feb<\/strong> Wednesday 7 Feb<\/strong> Thursday 8 Feb<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n The post Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ASX Sectors Last Week<\/h2>\n\n
The Week Ahead<\/h2>\n
The Aussie Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Monday February 5 \u2013 Friday February 9<\/h2>\n
\nAustralia Trade (Dec)<\/p>\n
\nAustralia RBA Interest Rate Decision<\/p>\n
\nNew Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q4)<\/p>\n
\nGovernor Bullock is due at the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics
\n*China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR
\n(partial), Singapore (partial) Market Holiday<\/p>\nThe Everyone Else Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Monday February 5 \u2013 Friday February 9<\/h2>\n
\nWorldwide Services, Composite PMIs, inc. global PMI* (Jan)
\nAustralia Trade (Dec)
\nIndonesia GDP (Q4)
\nThailand Inflation (Jan)
\nSingapore Retail Sales (Dec)
\nGermany Trade (Dec)
\nTurkey Inflation (Jan)
\nEurozone PPI (Dec)
\nUnited States ISM Services PMI (Jan)<\/p>\n
\nJapan Household Spending (Dec)
\nPhilippines Inflation (Jan)
\nGermany Factory Orders (Dec)
\nTaiwan Inflation Rate (Jan)
\nEurozone Retail Sales (Dec)
\nGlobal Sector PMI* (Jan)<\/p>\n
\nPhilippines Unemployment Rate (Dec)
\nJapan Leading Index (Dec)
\nSwitzerland Unemployment Rate (Jan)
\nGermany Industrial Production (Dec)
\nThailand BoT Interest Rate Decision
\nUnited Kingdom Halifax House Price Index (Jan)
\nFrance Trade (Dec)
\nTaiwan Trade (Jan)
\nItaly Retail Sales (Dec)
\nBrazil Retail Sales (Dec)
\nMexico Consumer Confidence (Jan)
\nCanada Trade (Dec)
\nUnited States Trade (Dec)
\nGlobal Metal Users and Electronics PMI* (Jan)<\/p>\n
\nTaiwan, Indonesia Market Holiday
\nJapan Current Account (Dec)
\nChina (Mainland) CPI, PPI (Jan)
\nIndia RBI Interest Rate Decision
\nBrazil Inflation (Jan)
\nMexico Inflation (Jan)
\nUnited States Initial Jobless Claims
\nUnited States Wholesale Inventories (Dec)
\nUnited Kingdom KPMG \/ REC Report on Jobs (Jan)
\n
\nFriday 9 Feb<\/strong>
\nChina (Mainland), South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR
\n(partial), Singapore (partial) Market Holiday
\nGermany Inflation (Jan, final)
\nTurkey Industrial Production (Dec)
\nItaly Industrial Production (Dec)
\nMexico Industrial Production (Dec)
\nCanada Unemployment (Jan)<\/p>\n