Local markets are down at lunchtime today \u2013 not by a lot, but it\u2019s more than just a \u201cthat\u2019ll buff out \u2013 don\u2019t worry about it\u201d scratch on the ASX paintwork.<\/p>\n
Shortly after 12pm, the needle was pointing to a \u201cwait \u2018til your father gets home\u201d 0.14%, after dipping in early trade and then rallying to flirt with breaking even, and then sinking gently again as investors got hangry before lunch.<\/p>\n
Before I get into that, there\u2019s a quick topic I\u2019d like to touch on, and that\u2019s the trend at this time of year to do a spot of crystal ball gazing and make bold predictions about what\u2019s going to happen in the new year ahead.<\/p>\n
In a lot of ways, it can be a fairly easy system to game \u2013 pick a bunch of no-brainer predictions, and keep them as vague as possible.<\/p>\n
Stuff like \u201cThere will be a lot of action around Bitcoin early in 2023\u201d, or \u201cIt will be less than 2 weeks into the new year before gregor turns up at work late with another piss-poor excuse for sleeping through his morning alarms\u201d.<\/p>\n
The problem arises when high profile people make a very specific guess at what\u2019s likely to happen \u2013 and when they do so in a very public way, it leaves them open to criticism at best, and outright mockery when they get it badly wrong.<\/p>\n
CNBC\u2019s sentient melting waxwork Jim Cramer is often the target of such criticism, so much so that several people have set up ETFs that specifically make contrary trades to Cramer\u2019s screeching predictions on TV.<\/p>\n
The granddaddy of them all, however, belongs to a former Russian President, Dimitry Medvedev, who in late 2022 took to Twitter to make some very sweeping predictions about how 2023 was going to pan out.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
On the New Year\u2019s Eve, everybody\u2019s into making predictions<\/p>\n
Many come up with futuristic hypotheses, as if competing to single out the wildest, and even the most absurd ones.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s our humble contribution.<\/p>\n
What can happen in 2023:<\/p>\n
\u2014 Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) December 26, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n\n \u00a0<\/p>\n I don\u2019t have time to individually pick apart all 10 of his wild predictions, but \u2013 as you could probably guess \u2013 all 10 of them turned out to be laughably bad calls.<\/p>\n The predictions start with a banger \u2013\u00a0the prediction that oil prices would top $150 a barrel\u2026 and, spoiler alert, it did not. Brent crude flirted with $95 a barrel in September \u2013 but that\u2019s about as far as it got.<\/p>\n At this point, Medvedev\u2019s channelling of Nostradamus heads off the rails with alarming speed.<\/p>\n Prediction 2 has the UK re-joining the EU, while prediction 4 says \u201cPoland and Hungary will occupy western regions of the formerly existing Ukraine\u201d. Yikes.<\/p>\n After some drivel about civil war breaking out in the United States because everyone cracked the shits at Texas (which, to be fair, nearly happened\u2026), Medvedev predicted that \u201cAll the largest stock markets and financial activity will leave the US and Europe and move to Asia\u201d.<\/p>\n Presumably to spend their ill-gotten retirement money opening up titty bars in the seedy tourist sections of Bali, but you never know\u2026<\/p>\n But it was Prediction 10 that was the icing on the cake: \u201cThe Bretton Woods system of monetary management will collapse, leading to the IMF and World Bank crash. Euro and Dollar will stop circulating as the global reserve currencies. Digital fiat currencies will be actively used instead.\u201d<\/p>\n You can check out the rest of the predictions that were 100% incorrect from the Twitter link above \u2013 but fair warning\u2026 Ol\u2019 Medvedev\u2019s English-language feed is a wild, wild ride.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Local markets are weaker this morning, but not in terrible shape by any reasonable measure, with the ASX 200 benchmark meandering around -0.15% as lunch time descends upon the bourse.<\/p>\n The decline is largely due to local and overseas markets reacting to \u2013\u00a0deep breath \u2013 inflation data, after recent numbers out of the US had investors pumping the brakes on their heady predictions about a rate cut arriving sooner rather than later.<\/p>\n Locally, though, the early running was dominated by Energy and Resources stocks lifting on the back of a few key commodities surging overnight \u2013\u00a0namely oil, which saw a rise of jut over 2.0% overnight for Brent crude, and a continuing burst of interest in local uranium stocks helped out as well.<\/p>\n That\u2019s put the Energy sector out in front for the day so far, not quite off-setting losses elsewhere that have left Utilities and Consumer Staples languishing below -1.6% and -1.2% respectively.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Chart via Marketindex.com.au.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Interestingly, Tech stocks looked headed for a shocker in early trade, but that sector has managed to rally sharply on the run up to lunch to be a smidgen in front of the rest of the market.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Chart via Marketindex.com.au.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n In New York overnight, the S&P 500 fell by -0.66%. The blue chips Dow Jones index was up by +0.04%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed flat, as US investors digested the news that US CPI data wasn\u2019t quite what everyone was expecting.<\/p>\n Earlybird Eddy reported this morning that consumer prices in the US picked up again in December to 3.4% (from 3.1% in November), driven by increase in costs for housing, dining out and car insurance.<\/p>\n \u201cNot bad numbers, but they do show that disinflation progress is still slow and unlikely to be a straight line down,\u201d said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.<\/p>\n \u201cCertainly, as long as shelter inflation remains stubbornly elevated, the Fed will keep pushing back at the idea of imminent rate cuts.\u201d<\/p>\n Despite that little mood killer, there was some positive news\u2026\u00a0 the US weekly jobless claims were also released and showed no signs of a weakening in the US job market \u2013 coming in at 202,000 which were lower than forecast.<\/p>\n In US stock news, car rental company Hertz fell -4% after\u00a0 pulling back from its EV push, selling around 20,000 of its EV fleet to buy more internal combustion engine cars, citing maintenance costs.<\/p>\n Cryptocurrency related stocks were mainly lower \u2013 with Coinbase down -6.7% and Marathon Digital by -12.6%, as the first\u00a0 US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Here are the best performing ASX small cap stocks for 02 January [intraday]:<\/strong><\/p>\n Swipe or scroll to reveal full table. Click headings to sort:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n WordPress Table Plugin<\/a><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n As mentioned earlier, a lot of the day\u2019s leaders are making headway thanks to market conditions and commodity price movement, leaving Lodestar Minerals (ASX:LSR)<\/strong><\/a> out in front on a no-news Friday for the company.<\/p>\n However, in amongst the winners list there are a handful of noteworthy mentions, including Duketon Mining (ASX:DKM)<\/strong><\/a> with a 16% lift off the back of an upbeat quarterly delivered this morning, showing that the company is still beavering away at its Tate Prospect, located north of the Duketon Greenstone Belt \u2013 and that there\u2019s still money in the bank to keep the hunt going for a while yet.<\/p>\n And 88 Energy (ASX:88E)<\/strong><\/a> dropped a flow-test update on the market news list this morning, letting everyone know that things are full steam ahead for the Hickory-1 discovery well next month.<\/p>\n There\u2019s still the small matter of building an ice road, well pad and getting the rig out to the site to deal with, but the company sounds pretty positive that things are all on track.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Here are the most-worst performing ASX small cap stocks for 02 January [intraday]:<\/strong><\/p>\n Swipe or scroll to reveal full table. Click headings to sort:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n WordPress Table Plugin<\/a><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n The post ASX Small Caps Lunch Wrap: Which former world leader made the most laughably bad predictions for 2023?<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"TO MARKETS<\/h2>\n
NOT THE ASX<\/h2>\n
ASX SMALL CAP WINNERS<\/strong><\/h2>\n
ASX SMALL CAP LOSERS<\/strong><\/h2>\n