\u00a0<\/p>\n
When we last left our erstwhile hero, the ASX200 (XJO) index, things were (aside from the Friday session last week) largely looking up\u2026<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
On Monday morning in Sydney, the situation is not so green.<\/p>\n
Via MarketIndex<\/em><\/p>\n As you may recall, things got pretty real pretty quickly last week, both here and in the States\u2026<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Via MarketIndex<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Stocks in New York ended a volatile session flat on Friday, as US traders reassess their reassessments of the new, new path of US monetary policy. All three major indexes ended near the flatline, halting a nine-week win streak, with the Nasdaq 100 booking its sixth straight day of losses.<\/p>\n Basically, capping off last year with one of Santa\u2019s particularly great rallies, guilty looking US markets smacked into a big old wall of doubt last week to usher in a new year of trade in an old way.<\/p>\n First, perhaps, the mission was just to lock in some of the meaty profits made on (largely) Mega-Tech Magnificent 7 trades after the Fed\u2019s early December dovish pivot. But nine weeks of straight wins began to weigh heavily on the mood as the economic data into the end of last week proved enough of a mixed bag\/poisoned chalice to put an early end to the fairy tale.<\/p>\n But the fairy tale was real, people.<\/p>\n It was certainly a corker of a year for Wall Street.<\/p>\n All three major indices ended December (and the year) on the kind of positive note Mariah Carey\u2019s been flogging for the last 20 Christmases, with the S&P500 back near its best ever Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary were the three biggest winners in 2023, all of them up more than 40% for the year.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s a detailed look at how they all did in 2023.<\/p>\n Via Visual Capitalist<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n But that was then and this is 2024.<\/p>\n Last week, the new year\u2019s first, the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell over 3%, while the S&P500 and the Dow Jones fell 1.59% and 0.60% respectively.<\/p>\n On the economic front, some decent US jobs growth, familiarly anxious US FOMC minutes and the pistons of a still pumping US economy churned up the old doubts about some of the overtly aggressive trading on the promise of rate cuts, while the euro area inflation profile should allow for ECB cuts in April, and China\u2019s weakness could well trigger PBoC cuts later this month.<\/p>\n US economic data of a mixed variety put the brakes on any remaining Santa-berries. A larger than expected lift in non-farm payrolls (216k vs 170k exp), better than expected average hourly earnings (0.4% vs 0.3% exp) and an unchanged unemployment rate at 3.7% were offset by heaps of downward revisions on previous months and a larger than expected fall in private payrolls.<\/p>\n Providing further doubt, a slumpy-surprise in the December Services ISM.<\/p>\n The wash up, according to Tony Sycamore at IG Markets, being the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in March.<\/p>\n Chances there lengthening by the day, from 90% around Christmas, to 62% over the weekend.<\/p>\n Six 25bp cuts are priced for 2024, but if we learned anything last year \u2013 it\u2019s that inflation\u2019s a bitch.<\/p>\n Finally, Bitcoin gets a mention.<\/p>\n The crypto-king is back into jerky-volatile trading mode, currently higher at US$43,971.<\/p>\n Tony told Stockhead<\/em> it\u2019s still a bit too soupy to get a clear read on BTC and its brethren ahead of the SEC\u2019s January 10 deadline for possible spot Bitcoin ETF approval.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile we believe that SEC approval will support the Bitcoin price in the long run, we remain wary of a \u2018buy the rumour sell the fact\u2019 type reaction in the short term.\u201d<\/p>\n Which brings us to business this week.<\/p>\n Economically, the week\u2019s focus is on CPI in the US, Japan and in China.<\/p>\n Expectations for the US inflation data is for headline to bump higher to 3.3% YoY from 3.1% in November.<\/p>\n Core US CPI is expected to have eased during December, to 3.8% YoY from 4.0% in November 2023.<\/p>\n\n China\u2019s uninspiring economic progress should trigger People\u2019s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts this month, according to Barclays Research.<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect weaker growth momentum and persistent deflation to prompt a 10bp policy rate cut as soon as January.\u201d<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe Q4 PBoC MPC meeting vowed to stimulate prices and that the exchange rate is less a constraint. A likely DPP election win in Taiwan implies heightened tension, but we see limited risk of a more serious turn.\u201d<\/p>\n At home, the market moving economic events will be November\u2019s retail sales and CPI read.<\/p>\n \u201cThe consensus expectation is for the Monthly CPI indicator to fall to 4.7% YoY from 4.9%. Should the trimmed mean (core) fall below 5%, it would confirm the rates market is on the right track looking for two RBA rate cuts in 2024,\u201d Tony says.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n All sources:\u00a0 Trading Economics, IG Markets, S&P Global Market Intelligence\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n MONDAY TUESDAY<\/strong> WEDNESDAY<\/strong> THURSDAY<\/strong> FRIDAY<\/strong> \u00a0<\/p>\n MONDAY<\/strong> TUESDAY<\/strong> WEDNESDAY<\/strong> THURSDAY<\/strong> FRIDAY<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n The post Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"ASX Sectors Last Week<\/h2>\n
2024: Game Off!<\/h2>\n
<\/h2>\n
The Week Ahead<\/h2>\n
The Aussie Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Tuesday January 8 \u2013 Friday January 12<\/h2>\n
\nNada<\/p>\n
\nBuilding Permits Nov (Preliminary)
\nRetail Sales Nov (Preliminary)
\nPrivate House Approvals Nov (Preliminary)<\/p>\n
\nMonthly CPI Indicator Nov<\/p>\n
\nBalance of Trade Nov<\/p>\n
\nHome Loans Nov
\nInvestment Lending for Homes Nov<\/p>\nThe Everyone Else Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Monday January 8 \u2013 Friday January 12<\/h2>\n
\nMonday 8 Jan
\nGermany Trade (Nov)
\nSwitzerland Inflation (Dec)
\nEurozone Economic Sentiment (Dec)
\nEurozone Retail Sales (Nov)
\nUnited States Consumer Inflation Expectations (Dec)
\nUnited Kingdom KPMG\/REC Report on Jobs* (Dec)
\nGlobal Metal Users and Electronics PMI* (Dec)<\/p>\n
\nJapan Household Spending (Nov)
\nJapan Tokyo CPI (Dec)
\nAustralia Building Permits (Nov, prelim)
\nSwitzerland Unemployment (Dec)
\nGermany Industrial Production (Nov)
\nFrance Balance of Trade (Nov)
\nTaiwan Trade (Dec)
\nItaly Unemployment Rate (Nov)
\nEurozone Unemployment Rate (Nov)
\nMexico Inflation (Dec)
\nCanada Trade (Nov)
\nUnited States Trade (Nov)
\nS&P Global Investment Manager Index (Jan)<\/p>\n
\nSouth Korea Unemployment (Dec)
\nChina (Mainland) M2, New Yuan Loans, Loan Growth (Dec)
\nPhilippines Trade (Nov)
\nTurkey Industrial Production (Nov)
\nFrance Industrial Production (Nov)<\/p>\n
\nSouth Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision
\nMalaysia Industrial Production (Nov)
\nSouth Africa Manufacturing Production (Nov)
\nBrazil Inflation (Dec)
\nMexico Industrial Production (Nov)
\nUnited States CPI (Dec)
\nUnited States Initial Jobless Claims
\nUnited States Monthly Budget Statement (Dec)<\/p>\n
\nJapan Current Account (Nov)
\nChina (Mainland) CPI, PPI (Dec)
\nUnited Kingdom monthly GDP, incl. Manufacturing, Services
\nand Construction Output (Nov)
\nFrance Inflation (Dec, final)
\nIndia Industrial Production (Nov)
\nUnited States PPI (Dec)<\/p>\n