After 35 years of stockbroking for some of the biggest houses and investors in Australia and the UK, the Secret Broker is regaling Stockhead readers with his colourful war stories \u2014 from the trading floor to the dealer\u2019s desk.
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Happy New Year to everyone.<\/p>\n
According to my family, NYE was a good one, though for certain bits I have a bit of a blank and I don\u2019t think I offended too many of the hangers on, who I have to say, don\u2019t come from my side of the gene pool, so I really don\u2019t care.<\/p>\n
I had to get the editor to email me last year\u2019s predictions and his attached note was somewhat rude in regards to my score. <\/p>\n
He would have got an invite but somehow it must have got lost in the post. <\/p>\n
When I asked him how many of his predictions came true, he answered just one, as last year he only made one.<\/p>\n
So, no pressure on me here then and I do think it\u2019s a bit unfair with his one and my demanded 20. <\/p>\n
Maybe he should give me a bonus $500 for each one I get right and if he agrees with this, he may, just may, get back on the invitee list.<\/p>\n
(Ed: Suggest prediction \u201ceditor gets invite to my NYE bash\u201d.<\/em>)<\/p>\n Anyway, as you all know, I can channel the great predictor Nostradamus, simply by staring at a lump of ice floating in a good slug of The Macallan 25 Year Old (Sherry Oak Highland) Single Malt Scotch before it melts and gets consumed. <\/p>\n As he was foreign, some of the translating must get mixed up, especially as the night goes on, so we can blame him for some of the wayward wrong \u2018uns.<\/p>\n A bad predictor always blames the translator. Hic!<\/p>\n Anyway, these were last year\u2019s predictions for 2023.<\/p>\n 1. House prices to bottom out with June\/July being the bottom. They won\u2019t recover by much but just settle. 2. Beware of the Ides of March as the market will fall by 5% between 15th March and the 2nd April, as 3 months into the year sentiment will drop. And then again\u2026 just started a few days earlier than the 15th March 2023. Like by three days. Give me a break!\n<\/p>\n 3. Another member of the Rolling Stones will pass away as their odds deteriorate this year, yet again. 4. 10 year government bonds will finish the year yielding between 3.37% to 3.59%. This one is quite amazing. I didn\u2019t get it right, but yields did touch 5% before ending the year at the exact same yield as they started, so my sentiment was right (ish).<\/p>\n 5. The market will close out higher than its current level. 6. You will see a doubling of cars, boats and other \u2018boys\u2019 toys\u2019 for sale in the road. 7. Prince Harry and Meghan will attend King Charles\u2019 coronation. 8. Tesla shares will touch U$89. Currently U$110.50. 9, CBA will trade between $93 and $107. Currently $103.30. 10. Artificial Intelligence (AI) will threaten Google\u2019s dominance in search and impact on their revenue. 11. Meat prices will drop as consumers tighten their belts. 12. Bitcoin will hit U$20,300 and U$13,650. 13. ZIP will be bid for, only because their tech is so good. I can see an organisation like Harvey Norman expanding from just their current customer base on 60 month interest free to a much wider audience and joining in in the FinTech revolution. <\/p>\n Give up on this prediction. Wrong again.<\/em><\/p>\n 14. Penny Wongs\u2019 hair will turn completely white as she grapples with Chinese diplomacy.<\/p>\n Her hairdresser was under a lot of pressure with this one but I\u2019m pretty sure I am right.<\/em><\/p>\n Picture: Getty Images<\/p>\n 15. Someone in \u2018Home and Away\u2019 will die. 16. Kathleen Folbigg will be released from jail. 17.Elton John will finally finish his last world tour. 18. Twitter will default on some of its debt. 19. Harry and William will kiss and make up 20. There will be peace in the Ukraine. So, I will leave it to the editor to score me on last year\u2019s effort and I will score him. 1\/1. (His prediction, every year \u2013 \u2018world gets more f..ked\u2019. So you can see what I have to deal with.)<\/p>\n So now, as I\u2019m slipping down the green chesterfield and skillfully managing never to spill a drop of my prediction juice, I had better note this year\u2019s predictions down.<\/p>\n 1. Keef won\u2019t die.<\/p>\n 2. ZIP won\u2019t be taken over.<\/p>\n 3. Interest rates won\u2019t be cut by the RBA.<\/p>\n 4. The ASX 200 will finish lower than it started this year.<\/p>\n 5. The A$ will touch 64c.<\/p>\n 6. The A$ will touch 71c.<\/p>\n 7. Aust 10 yr bonds will touch 4.75%.<\/p>\n 8. Trump will not be re-elected.<\/p>\n 9. Prince Harry will have a health scare.<\/p>\n 10. Iron ore will touch U$109.20.<\/p>\n 11. CBA will touch $117 and $97.<\/p>\n 12. Feb and Aug will be the worst months for markets.<\/p>\n 13. Global heat rates will peak this year.<\/p>\n 14. House prices will finish the year lower.<\/p>\n 15. AVZ will be removed from the ASX.<\/p>\n 16. Bitcoin will touch US$58,000.<\/p>\n 17. BHP will range between $43 and $54.<\/p>\n 18. I will release a book. (Ed: lol.<\/em>)<\/p>\n 19. FMG will touch $35.<\/p>\n 20. Crown will be bid for.<\/p>\n And there you go. I can back up each one with logical arguments on why I think these predictions will come true but I just haven\u2019t got the post NYE celebration energy to be fully arsed.<\/p>\n Number 3 is a classic, where markets are building in rate cuts in 2024 but if rates are cut from where they are now, won\u2019t that trigger off the inflation roundabout again?<\/p>\n Number 9 will come about, as there is nothing like a bit of sympathy that arises from a health scare, which can then be used to patch up family and public opinions and sway their thoughts the other way.<\/p>\n As for number 8, I think the public will just tire of the Trump circus antics and maybe, just maybe, they may vote in someone who is younger and dare I say, female?<\/p>\n Anyway, print this off, stick it on the fridge door and tick them off one by one.<\/p>\n As for me, I will adjust a few things as 5 and 6 come in and out of play, re portfolio and oversea purchases.<\/p>\n I\u2019m going to trim a few holdings in Feb and come back to them in April.<\/p>\n Happy 2024 and good luck.<\/p>\n Some of you will need it!<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The Secret Broker can be found on Twitter here\u00a0@SecretBrokerAU<\/a>\u00a0or on email at\u00a0thesecretbroker@stockhead.com.au.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Feel free to contact him with your best stock tips and ideas.<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n The post The Secret Broker: 20 predictions that will absolutely come true in 2024<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\nGot this one correct, so that was a good start.<\/em><\/p>\n
\nThis one came true earlier than I predicted<\/em>\n<\/p>\n
\nAt some point this will happen but I am sticking with Keef and his diet from now on.<\/em><\/p>\n
\n Currently 3.90%.<\/em><\/p>\n
\nGot this one correct and against all odds.<\/em><\/p>\n
\nGot this one correct, as mortgage payments got tighter<\/em><\/p>\n
\nWell, they both got an invite, but only Harry attended.<\/em><\/p>\n
\nGot this one wrong. Their years low was U$101.81<\/em><\/p>\n
\nTheir low for the year was $93.05 (15th March 2023 \u2013 you see the Ides of March)<\/em><\/p>\n
\nGot this right to start with but then they came out swinging against Microsoft. They hit U$89.52 on 1st March 2023, which was down from U$108.82, reached in Feb 2023. Closed the year at $141.28.<\/em><\/p>\n
\nGot this one right.<\/em><\/p>\n
\nU$16,000 was their low but they did hit U$20,300 on 14th Jan 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n
\nThis one will never be wrong!<\/em><\/p>\n
\nCorrect: 5th June 2023. At last!<\/em><\/p>\n
\nCorrect: \u2018Your Song\u2019 was his very final tune and that just so happened to be the 1st single I ever bought<\/em>.<\/p>\n
\nNope. He is still hanging on in there, though he did miss some rent payments for his office space.<\/em><\/p>\n
\nNope: Not yet anyway though Charlie did forgive him in public.<\/em><\/p>\n
\nNope, not yet, though a deal may be done in 2024.<\/em><\/p>\nTSBstradamus\u2019 2024 predictions<\/h2>\n