Host of The Global Lithium Podcast, Joe Lowry is one of the world\u2019s foremost lithium market experts. Here, he gives Stockhead his takes on the battery metal\u2019s outlook as the industry recharges for 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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Dubbed \u201cMr Lithium\u201d by industry players, Joe Lowry\u2019s nuanced and uncompromising takes on the industry have been developed over more than two decades working across the US, Japan and China and have helped him amassed a following of more than 26,000 people on the platform formerly known as Twitter.<\/p>\n
We caught up with the lithium legend just before Christmas, in an effort to learn where he believes the land lies in 2024 for the biggest battery metal narrative of them all.<\/p>\n
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Hi Joe. For a few reasons, it was a tough year for many lithium\/battery metal stocks. What positives do you take from 2023 for the sector?\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u201cDespite all the rhetoric about an EV slowdown, actual global EVs sales will be up over 30% in 2023. I look at numbers from many sources including Rho Motion who project just under 14 million EVs sold,\u201d Lowry says.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat happened in 2023 wasn\u2019t a shock. I have been in this business for over three decades \u2013 lithium battery supply chain disconnects have happened multiple times.<\/p>\n \u201cIn 2022, all facets of the supply chain developed excess inventory, so in effect 2022 wasn\u2019t as great a year as it looked, the price run up was unnecessary, and 2023 was a year of correction. The long term lithium demand story is still intact.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n How bullish, bearish or flat are you feeling about the global lithium market for 2024? And why?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u201cI am a realistic rather than rogue bull,\u201d Lowry says.<\/p>\n \u201cIn general, the global mainstream press is lazy, doesn\u2019t understand lithium, writes simple narratives and then searches for data points to back up their ill conceived beliefs.\u201d<\/p>\n Are downturns in the market a good way to shake out the crappy bandwagon stocks? And do good stocks almost always survive lean periods?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u201cYes and yes \u2013 if you are at the low end of the cost curve, all is good.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n How do you think the demand and supply dynamics of the global lithium market will evolve in 2024?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u201cThe price drop of 2023 will slow financing for many projects that have marginal economics with prices below $20,000\/MT,\u201d Lowry says.<\/p>\n \u201cI expect lithium chemical supply to be close to balanced but as inventories are rebuilt in China, price will begin to rise sometime in 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cThe excess in ore and low grade precursors from Africa may remain but gradually be used by converters that blend them into their systems.\u201d<\/p>\n Excellent analysis from @andyleyland1<\/a> of @insights_sc<\/a>. I agree with his broad points. I believe LCEs in all forms are in a modest oversupply but BQ lithium at best will be in relative balance in 2024 but not sufficient to deal with growing demand & restocking. Price is the 2024-? https:\/\/t.co\/sW8NZzySec<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Joe Lowry (@globallithium) December 26, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n Added to that \u2013 is the future of the lithium clay industry hinging on the success of Lithium America\u2019s (NYSE:LAC) Thacker Pass project? What impact could Thacker Pass and its smaller peers have on supply?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u201cThacker Pass is far and away the top sedimentary project. Bacanora will continue to languish as Mexico\u2019s lithium polices limit investment,\u201d Lowry says.<\/p>\n \u201cIoneer\u00a0<\/strong>(ASX:INR)<\/a>\u00a0will likely remained mired in permitting problems. Thacker Pass will become the most significant single US supply but will not materially impact the global supply as demand will continue to grow rapidly.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n What else do you think it will take for the spot lithium pricing to turn around in 2024? I know you\u2019ve said in the past that calling this sort of thing is fraught, but do you think the bottom could be in sight?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u201cMuch of Chinese lepidolite is losing money at current spot pricing. Even Chinese companies can\u2019t lose money on a long term basis without subsidy,\u201d Lowry says.<\/p>\n \u201cI believe the bottom happens by the second half of 2024 \u00a0at the latest.\u201d<\/p>\n An interesting lack of conviction. @Macquarie<\/a> was very optimistic in their Sept #lithium<\/a> price projection but just three months later has fallen into group think mode. Look for pricing somewhere in between their \u201cbi-polar\u201d projections to 2028. pic.twitter.com\/FVhrythFGg<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Joe Lowry (@globallithium) December 22, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n \u00a0<\/p>\n How do you think advancements in lithium extraction and processing tech will impact the market in 2024? Are there any particular innovations that could significantly change the landscape?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u201cDLE [direct lithium extraction] is coming but not significantly in 2024. Any other improvements won\u2019t make a significant difference,\u201d Lowry says.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Is Gina morphing into #lithium<\/a> Barbie? You have to love the WA #lithium<\/a> landscape. Looking forward to 2024. Will $SQM<\/a> agree that $AZS<\/a> team colors are pink? pic.twitter.com\/F4ESyZeAc3<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Joe Lowry (@globallithium) December 20, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n Given the unique position of Australia in the global lithium market, what is your outlook for ASX-listed lithium stocks in 2024? Are there specific factors or trends within the Aussie market that you think could influence these stocks\u2019 performance?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u201cASX investors seemingly have a a higher tolerance for early-stage project risk and in many cases a greater interest in lithium than investors in other markets,\u201d Lowry says.<\/p>\n \u201cI have done very well in ASX stocks including Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS)<\/strong><\/a> , Azure Minerals (ASX:AZS)<\/strong><\/a> and Latin Resources (ASX:LRS)<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cInvestors will gradually forget the ultra high spodumene prices of 2022 and adjust their expectations. Aussie spod will remain the most significant supply in the near term.\u201d<\/p>\n You mentioned a few top ASX lithium stocks you\u2019ve done well from there. Are there any others you\u2019d care to name that you think could do well in 2024?\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t give investment advice, but if you want to know the stocks I like, have a listen to my podcast.\u201d<\/p>\n Good idea. Cheers, Joe.\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n You can catch The Global Lithium Podcast, hosted by Joe Lowry > here<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n The post Clouds clearing? Lithium price bottom will hit by second half of 2024, believes \u2018realistic bull\u2019 Joe Lowry<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A realistic bull<\/h2>\n
Lithium\u2019s supply and demand issue improving?<\/h2>\n
The bottom \u2013 are we there yet?\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Could fresh innovations change the lithium narrative?<\/h2>\n
\u2018Aussie spod will remain the most significant supply\u2019<\/h2>\n