First things first, mes amis:<\/p>\n
As a unit, the US tech stocks currently known as the Magnificent Seven \u2013 Messrs Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms \u2013<\/em> have added circa +75% year-to-date, leaving the other members of the US benchmark (the remaining S&P493) almost entirely forlorn in their wake.<\/p>\n Theese S&P493 (Spectators) Index<\/strong> have risen merely +12% over the same time.<\/p>\n The actual S&P500 is currently up +23%.<\/p>\n In 2023, the so-called Magnificent Seven have been pretty damn magnificent if magnificent means absurdly over-powered.<\/p>\n This company of 7 ensemble now represents circa 30% of the entire US benchmark\u2019s market value, as per to Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.<\/p>\n Ann Miletti, head of active equity at Allspring Global Investments described it thusly<\/a>:<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a mind-blowing number to me when I think about an index that\u2019s supposed to represent such a broad group of companies.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The Dow a few times last week,\u00a0 cracked wide open its previous record high and the 10-year US Treasury yield collapsed below 4.3% last week as punters took the US Fed\u2019s (Thursday morning Sydney time) forecast for as many as\u00a0 x3 rate cuts next year as an example of what they now believe is Fed Underspeak \u2013 they were late on raising, and traders are betting on J. Powell et al to get the knives out and cut rates deeper than just thrice, according to Fed funds futures.<\/p>\n Futures markets also reckon the Fed could start cutting rates as soon as March, while the consensus on Wall St is for 6 (six!) cuts, as per the widely-favoured CME Fed Watch Tool.<\/p>\n It seems no one trusts the Fed to stay on target going down as much as going up.<\/p>\n Even Goldman Sachs is now leading the cut-rate vanguard:<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect the FOMC to cut earlier and faster\u201d, with their view formed on the back of Fed comments plus last week\u2019s downward revisions to inflation.<\/p>\n New York Federal Reserve President Williams last week tried to insist that the FOMC isn\u2019t \u201creally talking about rate cuts\u201d right now. But his late vain attempt to tame the animal spirits unleashed after last Thursday\u2019s pivot-marking FOMC meeting pretty much fell on deaf ears.<\/p>\n US stocks on Friday logged a seventh straight week of wins.<\/p>\n Last week, the Nasdaq Composite added +3.35%, the Dow Jones, +2.9%, and the S&P500 gained +2.5%.<\/p>\n For the S&P 500, that\u2019s the best winning streak since 2017.<\/p>\n For the Dow, it\u2019s the best going back to 2019.<\/p>\n Despite the terrifying euphoria, US investors heartily expect stocks can rally into the final part of the year in the prized Santa Rally.<\/p>\n This chap from aptly named Freedom Markets on CNBC recently<\/a>:<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ve got the broadest rally where the tide is lifting all boats\u2026 We are extremely overbought, but the tailwinds are tremendous.\u201d<\/p>\n Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n Hear, hear.<\/p>\n The Wall Street Journal<\/a> said it best, as we near the demise of 2023\u2026<\/p>\n A tough year for anyone outside of this game:<\/p>\n\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Friday just past in the States is known as Wall Street\u2019s Triple Witching Day, a sort of fiscal eclipse when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options contracts all expire on the same day, which can see trading and volume more elevated than usual.<\/p>\n That also bothered no-one.<\/p>\n US stocks led by the mega tech names just kept surging last week as US Treasury yields did the opposite. The 10-year Treasury yield broke below the 4% level for the first time since August.<\/p>\n The Dow closed above 37,000 points for the first time on Thursday.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The best corporate tech news last week happened inside the courtroom.<\/p>\n The epic creator of horrendous tweenage gaming thingy Fortnite \u2013 Epic Games \u2013 accused Google of abusing its dominance and taking too deep a cut from in-app purchases (between 15% and 30%), and won.<\/p>\n Fascinating, not least \u2018cos exactly the same argument was lobbed at Apple back in 2020 and the tech giant laughed that one off.<\/p>\n Google is awaiting orders \u2013 which might include making it easier for other app stores to be loaded onto Android phones.<\/p>\n But certainly the first flickers of the great decentralising may\u2019ve just begin in earnest. Well, Tesla\u2019s recalled more than 2 million Teslas after the American regulator found Tesla\u2019s driver assistance system, Autopilot, wasn\u2019t working and was, actually, a bit defective.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not the disaster it sounds like \u2013 old schoold recalls actually involved cars getting recalled, fixed and sent back. Tesla does it with a patch of some sort.<\/p>\n Elon just sends a software update which happens automatically \u2013 no visit to a dealership or some such and no need to restart windows.<\/p>\n All this follows a two-year investigation into Tesla crashes\u00a0 and the recall \u2013 yes, it\u2019s still referred to as one by the US regulator \u2013 applies to almost every Tesla sold in the US since the Autopilot feature was launched in 2015.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Results: General Mills Q2, Micron Technology Q1, Winnebago Industries Q1<\/p>\n THURSDAY<\/strong> Results: CarMax Q3, Carnival Q4, Nike Q2<\/p>\n FRIDAY<\/strong> US November durable goods orders and new home sales figures<\/p>\n Results: Kernel Q1<\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n The post Tech Heavy: \u2018We are extremely overbought\u2026 but the tailwinds are tremendous\u2019<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Shaken, but as yet unstirred<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Courtnite<\/h2>\n
\n\u00a0<\/p>\nElon Watch<\/h2>\n
The pre-Christmas Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
\nWEDNESDAY<\/strong>
\nChina loan prime rate announcement
\nGermany GfK Consumer Climate data and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate figures
\nUK November CPI and PPI inflation rate data. Also, October House Price Index US Conference Board Consumer Confidence measure.<\/p>\n
\nTurkey interest rate decision
\nUK November public finances update
\nUS final Q3 GDP figures<\/p>\n
\nUK November retail sales figures and final Q3 GDP data.
\nFinancial markets close early for the Christmas break<\/p>\n