{"id":3334,"date":"2023-12-17T11:24:15","date_gmt":"2023-12-17T11:24:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=3334"},"modified":"2023-12-17T11:24:15","modified_gmt":"2023-12-17T11:24:15","slug":"traders-diary-everything-you-need-to-know-before-the-asx-opens-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=3334","title":{"rendered":"Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0<\/p>\n

What grabbed the headlines last week?<\/h2>\n

The US Federal Reserve turned equity pyromaniac last week, igniting a run on already sizzling stock markets.<\/p>\n

Ebullient broad-based buying spread not unlike wildfire across the region and further afield after the Fed made its oh-so-long-awaited pivoted on rates, showing Santa really does rally, given the right conditions.<\/p>\n

And conditions were ideal.<\/p>\n

Aided and abetted by central banks in the Europe, England, Switzerland, the Philippines and Taiwan, share markets were up +2.5% in the US and European markets found +1.0%.<\/p>\n

Closer to home, Korean markets claimed a further +1.0% and Japanese shares +2.1%.<\/p>\n

Chinese markets aren\u2019t quite in freefall, but it\u2019s not a good look when this kind of global equity euphoria can\u2019t stop a further\u00a0 sell off \u2013 down -1.75% across mainland and HK markets \u2013 a real measure of how freaked out trading is while the massive property sector continues its slo-mo implosion.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the US share market is now just 1.6% below its record January 2022 high which had been reached before the inflation and interest rate scare took off in earnest.<\/p>\n

The local benchmark was also hot to trot, ending the week up +3.75%, with the rate-sensitive sectors leading the way as bond yields headed downstairs with Messrs Property (+5.3%), IT (+4.8%), and Healthcare (+4.2%) outperforming.<\/p>\n

However, the Fed\u2019s pivot has all but rewritten local market expectations around the Reserve Bank\u2019s own rate cut schedule with the broader market partaking of the free hit. In fact all 11 ASX sectors closed the week higher more than +1.8% stronger \u2013 and only Utilities (+0.41%) missing out on the big runs.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

ASX Sectors Last Week<\/h2>\n

Via MarketIndex<\/em><\/p>\n

And a last word on the RBA from AMP\u2019s chief economist Dr Shane Oliver, who says the high risk of another rate hike early next year is likely to be headed off at the pass by \u2018weaker inflation for December and the pivot towards rate cuts globally.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u201cOur base case remains that the cash rate has peaked and that the RBA will start cutting rates mid next year taking the cash rate down to 3.6% by end 2024 (which is below market expectations for a fall in the cash rate to 3.8% by end 2024),\u201d Dr Oliver says.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Best of the benchmark<\/h2>\n

Via MarketMatters<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/h2>\n

The Week Ahead (and a little further out)<\/h2>\n

In the States, home builder conditions and housing starts drop while a read on US consumer confidence is due before Christmas.<\/p>\n

On Friday the Americans have a PCE inflation to chew on \u2013 although as discussed they\u2019ve pretty much swallowed any doubts on that front.<\/p>\n

The Bank of Japan is likely to leave rates where they are on Monday, and then see what Japanese inflation is doing on Friday.<\/p>\n

At home we\u2019ve got the minutes from the last RBA meeting\u00a0 on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Further out on the economic front we\u2019ve got credit growth on the 29th Dec, CoreLogic data for December in the New Year, retail sales retail sales\u00a0 the week after that and then November CPI and job vacancies hit on the 11th of January.<\/p>\n

The broad-based S&P500 was flat on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a little lower while the US technology-led Nasdaq Composite didn\u2019t bother pausing, instead adding +0.5% on Friday.<\/p>\n

So the signs in Sydney on Monday at the open are for some pre-Xmas consolidation \u2013 certainly, the SPI Futures are a full per cent (-1%) down on Sunday morning.<\/p>\n

Without any of Wall St\u2019s incendiary IT names to keep the home fires burning, the ASX is facing an early Father Christmas test, with the SPI Futures -1% down on Sunday morning.<\/p>\n

The ASX200 is already up +5% for December, so we\u2019re statistically stretched\u2026 but one never knows after all\u2026 in the words of Hans Gruber:<\/p>\n

Via Die Hard<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Aussie Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n

Monday December 18 \u2013 Friday December 22<\/h2>\n

All sources:\u00a0 Commsec, Westpac, Trading Economics, S&P Global Intelligence and IG Markets<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

MONDAY
\nNope<\/p>\n

TUESDAY<\/strong>
\nRBA Board meeting Minutes, December<\/p>\n

WEDNESDAY<\/strong>
\nNope<\/p>\n

THURSDAY<\/strong>
\nNot really<\/p>\n

FRIDAY<\/strong>
\nNope<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Everyone Else Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n

Monday December 18 \u2013 Friday December 22<\/h2>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

MONDAY<\/strong>
\nUS home builder conditions weaker , a rise in consumer confidence (20 Dec)<\/p>\n

TUESDAY<\/strong>
\nBank of Japan policy decision
\nUS Housing starts<\/p>\n

WEDNESDAY<\/strong>
\nUK CPI, Nov
\nCanada CPI, Nov
\nUS Consumer Confidence<\/p>\n

THURSDAY<\/strong>
\nNope<\/p>\n

FRIDAY<\/strong>
\nUS PCE core inflation, Nov<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

The post Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 What grabbed the headlines last week? The US Federal Reserve turned equity pyromaniac last week, igniting a run on already sizzling stock markets. 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