Wall Street and its various moneymakers closed firmly, absolutely, emphatically higher again last week.<\/p>\n
All three major indices leaping ahead for an impressive sixth straight week, with the S&P500 closing less than 0.1% below its 2023 high.<\/p>\n
Well, almost all three\u2026 the Dow Jones Industrial Average was actually only average for the week, but the unstoppable S&P 500 and the tech furious Nasdaq Composite both clocked in a headline six-week streak, up +0.2% and +0.7%, respectively.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s their longest winning streak in three years.<\/p>\n
On Friday the S&P 500 locked in a new intraday high for the year after November jobs and the Uni of Michigan consumer survey data spoke further to the economic resilience at work in the US.<\/p>\n
The broader index touched 4,610 points in late Friday trading and is now ahead for 2023 by some 20%. It closed Friday within <1% of its one-year high.<\/p>\n
James Gerrish from Market Matters is \u2018cautiously bullish\u2019 toward US equities, short-term.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are looking for the US major indices to underperform the ASX as the influential \u2018Magnificent Seven\u2019 tire after a stellar advance through 2023, i.e. year to date, the NASDAQ is up +47%, compared to the S&P500, which has advanced +19.9%. The poor ASX200 is only up +2.2%, due to its lack of influential mega tech\/AI names.\u201d<\/p>\n
It was an encore of gutsy strides up the middle of the park for the forward pack of the year \u2013 with the tech heavyweights Mssrs Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA) all making easy metres for the tech-heavy which now sits 14,404 points.<\/p>\n
The main question heading into the week is whether this rally will continue. Gerrish reckons that\u2019s a 10-4.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe FANG+ & NASDAQ Indices followed the MM roadmap to fresh 2023 highs; we are now expecting the broad-based S&P500 to follow, no longer a big call, it\u2019s now less than 1% away.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe continue to believe global and US stocks can maintain their upside momentum into 2024,\u201d he adds. \u201cAll-time highs for the S&P500 are only 4.4% away, not out of the question and if the index manages to match November\u2019s advance, it will post a new milestone.\u201d<\/p>\n
US small caps outperformed their better-known rivals through November and have continued to do so into early December. However, even after the recent +15% recovery, the small-cap index is more than 20% below its 2021 high, which leaves plenty of room to squeeze higher.<\/p>\n
Via MarketMatters<\/p>\n
\u201cWe can see the Russell 2000 (small caps) testing the 2000 area into Christmas, or +6% higher \u2013 a similar move would take the S&P500 to a new all-time high.\u201d<\/p>\n
And last week, spot gold prices climbed to a fresh glittering record high of US$2,100, and a day or so later Bitcoin pushed past US$44,000, to say hullo to its highest level since April last year.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
It\u2019s nigh on the end of another year and Elon\u2019s Tesla has a bit more manic business to do ahead of securing another stock surge-inducing beat on Wall Street quarterly expectations.<\/p>\n
Even for EM, hitting the near 500k production mark (amid higher rates, stiffer competition) will not be a shoe-in.<\/p>\n
But as Barron\u2019s noted this weekend<\/a>, instead of more EV price cuts, Elon is now instead offering capital I Incentives.<\/p>\n Barron\u2019s looked at said incentives on Tesla vehicles in inventory:<\/p>\n Buyers can get almost US$4,000 off several Model Y vehicles plus six months of free supercharging. The charging benefit can be worth roughly $900 or more, depending, of course, on how committed any driver is to using the free charging.<\/em><\/p>\n Total incentives can amount to more than 8% of the transaction price. The average incentive on new U.S. car sales in October was about 5% of the transaction price, according to automotive data provider Kelly Blue Book.<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n It makes perfect sense that everyone is glued to the December 12-13 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting amid what S&P Global Market Intelligence are calling the \u2018ongoing disconnect between the Fed\u2019s hawkish-leaning rhetoric and the market\u2019s conviction of early rate cuts.\u2019<\/p>\n Risky assets, including equities, remained supported ahead of the US labour market report this week, bringing added attention to how the Fed may help shape the market\u2019s views on the interest rate path forward in its December meeting.<\/p>\n That said, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to keep its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday as the US economy finally appears to be losing some steam and inflation is coming under control.<\/p>\n Chair J. Powell has set the bar high for raising rates again, while investors have gone a step further and completely priced out any chance of additional tightening.<\/p>\n The focus therefore on Wednesday will be how soon the Fed will start lowering rates, specifically how many rate cuts do FOMC members foresee in the updated dot plot that\u2019s due the same day.<\/p>\n As far as Fed chair\u2019s recent speech showed, the market is placing far greater focus on data indications and indeed, price indications, including from S&P Global US PMI data, have showed that CPI may further ease and even close in on the Fed\u2019s 2% target soon.<\/p>\n More up-to-date December flash PMI data will also be due Friday for the freshest insights into price trends in the US in the final month of 2023.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The next wall of worry is already being built, Stateside.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n US government debt has hit $US33trn, which is about 120% of the US economy.<\/p>\n T\u2019is much.<\/p>\n A muchly-mountain to climb \u2013 and someone will have to soon, because lots of headline investors and Dimon-shaped CEOs have been using phrases like \u2018tipping point\u2019 and \u2018crunch time\u2019 to suggest the point at which the debt grows too high to repay \u2013 is in the post for the US government.<\/p>\n The bigger hassle is probably not that the White House is in no hurry to stop its spending, but that funding for its increasingly volatile global millitary projects remains stuck in neutral on Capitol Hill.<\/p>\n That\u2019s a national security vs fiscal deficit debate.<\/p>\n Republican vs Democrat simmering partisan conflicts continue around Ukraine\u2026 not to mention the various immigration policies; asylum procedures; what priorities should be tied to what bills etc etc.<\/p>\n Enough for the White House purse strings official to tell lawmakers on Saturday:.<\/p>\n \u201cWithout congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons for Ukraine and provide equipment from U.S. military stocks.\u201d\u00a0<\/em> Monday 11 Dec<\/strong><\/p>\n United States Consumer Inflation Expectations (Nov) Tuesday 12 Dec<\/strong> Wednesday 13 Dec<\/strong> Thursday 14 Dec<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n The post Tech Heavy: Who can stop the Nasdaq? This guy? No. No he can\u2019t.<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Week Ahead<\/h2>\n
\n\u00a0<\/p>\nThe Economic Calendar This Week<\/h2>\n
\nMalaysia Industrial Production (Oct)
\nNorway Inflation (Nov)
\nTurkey Industrial Production and Unemployment (Oct)<\/p>\n
\nUnited States CPI (Nov)
\nAustralia Westpac Consumer Confidence (Dec)
\nJapan PPI (Nov)
\nPhilippines Trade (Oct)
\nUnited Kingdom Labour Market Report (Oct)
\nEurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec)
\nBrazil Inflation (Nov)
\nIndia Industrial Production and Inflation (Nov)<\/p>\n
\nUnited States PPI (Nov)
\nUnited States Fed FOMC Interest Rate Decision
\nSouth Korea Unemployment (Nov)
\nJapan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)
\nChina (Mainland) New Yuan Loans, M2, Loan Growth (Nov)
\nUnited Kingdom monthly GDP, incl. Manufacturing, Services
\nand Construction Output (Oct)
\nUnited Kingdom Goods Trade (Oct)
\nSouth Africa Inflation (Nov)
\nEurozone Industrial Production (Oct)
\nBrazil BCB Interest Rate Decision<\/p>\n
\nUnited States Retail Sales
\nUnited States Business Inventories (Oct)
\nJapan Machinery Orders (Oct)
\nHong Kong SAR HKMA Interest Rate Decision
\nJapan Industrial Production (Oct, final)
\nIndia WPI (Nov)
\nChina (Mainland) FDI (Nov)
\nPhilippines BSP Interest Rate Decision
\nSwitzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision
\nTaiwan CBC Interest Rate Decision
\nUnited Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision
\nEurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision<\/p>\n
\nFriday 15 Dec<\/strong>
\nUS S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services
\nUnited States Industrial Production (Nov)
\nJapan au Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI
\nUK S&P Global\/CIPS Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services
\nGermany HCOB Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services
\nFrance HCOB Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services
\nEurozone HCOB Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services
\nSingapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (Nov)
\nChina (Mainland) Industrial Production, Retail Sales (Nov)
\nEurozone Trade (Oct)<\/p>\n