{"id":2846,"date":"2023-12-07T02:12:09","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T02:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846"},"modified":"2023-12-07T02:12:09","modified_gmt":"2023-12-07T02:12:09","slug":"ground-breakers-wheres-the-bottom-new-lithium-miners-face-uncertainty-heading-into-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846","title":{"rendered":"Ground Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Spot lithium prices down 80% year to date, now at their lowest level since Sept 2021
\nLithium prices could fall further in the shorter-term: E&P Capital, Benchmark
\nThe new class of ASX lithium miners: sink or swim?<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Another week, another fall in lithium prices.<\/p>\n

Sluggish demand from Chinese buyers pushed down local carbonate and hydroxide spot prices another ~15% and ~10% this week, respectively, to an average of US$17,350\/t.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a precipitous ~80% drop since a peak of ~US$80,000\/t in January this year.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Average prices over the past year. Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence<\/p>\n

Spot market prices haven\u2019t been this low since about August-September 2021.<\/p>\n

There could be more pain to come, says Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, but the bottom is probably around the corner.<\/p>\n

\u201cContacts reported to Benchmark that whilst cathode manufacturers maintain minimal inventory levels of approximately a week, some smaller buyers had begun to pick up low volume spot purchases due to the attractively low-price level; larger customers were yet to procure additional spot material,\u201d reports the pricing agency.<\/p>\n

\u201cMoreover, market participants expressed that while prices may continue to fall in the short term, they expected some support before chemicals prices reached RMB 80,000\/tonne ($11,200), given that production costs at many projects now sit above this level.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Where is<\/em> the bottom?<\/h2>\n

Lithium permabear Goldman Sachs said most Australian producers\u2019 all in sustaining costs remain well below its long term real SC6 concentrate price of US$1000\/t<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But weak pricing is not great news for new miners and advanced project developers looking for cash, who would\u2019ve plugged far higher average prices into their feasibility studies.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe pace of the lithium price pull-back and equity correction has come quicker than we were forecasting,\u201d E&P Capital wrote earlier this week.<\/p>\n

\u201c[The] challenge from here is that lithium prices could fall further in the shorter-term, even though medium-term fundamentals remain sound.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe sense some appetite is building but picking the bottom here is challenging. Our recent discussions suggest near-term demand headwinds across EVs are likely to persist.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The new class of ASX lithium miners: sink or swim?<\/h2>\n

Like the last mini cycle, strong, well-capitalised companies will ride out the downturn. Others, if the weakness persists, may not.<\/a><\/p>\n

Liontown (ASX:LTR)<\/a> is ~60% of the way through construction of the monster +$1bn Kathleen Valley hard rock mine, with first production pencilled in for mid 2024.<\/p>\n

Barring any curveballs during ramp up (there are always curveballs during ramp up) Kathleen Valley will have an average cash cost of US$475\/t, against a current spodumene concentrate price of ~US$1600\/t.<\/p>\n

Still profitable, LTR chair Tim Goyder said during his late November address to shareholders.<\/p>\n\n

<\/span>
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sayona (ASX:SYA)<\/a> and Piedmont (ASX:PLL)<\/a> are ramping up production at the historically troubled North American Lithium (NAL) hard rock operation, which bankrupted previous owners in 2014 and<\/em> 2019.<\/p>\n

They have hit some managerial and processing roadblocks during ramp up but had a comfy $233m cash cushion at the end of September.<\/p>\n

It reported an average selling price $1985\/t against costs of $1231\/t for its maiden shipments.<\/p>\n\n

<\/span>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Freshly minted Northern Territory miner Core Lithium (ASX:CXO)<\/a> has likewise endured challenges during ramp up of its Finniss hard rock operations.<\/p>\n

Initially expected to deliver 175,000t of 6% Li2O spod con a year, the mine is currently forecast to ship 80,000-90,000t at a lower grade of 5.5% Li2O in FY24.<\/p>\n

After eking out a small profit for FY23, CXO reported $21.6m revenues from customers against $43m in production costs for the September quarter.<\/p>\n

On the positive side, it has $202m in the bank and no debt.<\/p>\n\n

<\/span>
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s troubled Malian miner Leo Lithium (ASX:LLL)<\/a>, which is confronting both operational and<\/em> jurisdictional risk.<\/p>\n

The developer of the Goulamina mine \u2014 the first major spodumene project to be developed on the African continent \u2013 is languishing in a deep shade of red after the new Malian Mines Minister wasn\u2019t on board with LLL\u2019s plan to sell DSO lithium from Goulamina in its early days.<\/p>\n

This torpedoed guidance and early cashflows.<\/p>\n

LLL and partner Ganfeng could also see as much as US$45-50m in unplanned import duties and taxes in government actions \u201cnot consistent\u201d with the exemptions it previously had for importing equipment.<\/p>\n

And finally, while LLL will remain the operator of the 500,000tpa Goulamina mine, Ganfeng will move to a 55% ownership stake by sole-funding US$137.2m of Goulamina\u2019s capital costs rather than taking equity in LLL, knocking LLL\u2019s economic interest in the project down to 45%.<\/p>\n

LLL remains suspended \u201cfollowing a failure to respond to ASX queries adequately\u201d.<\/p>\n\n

\ufeff<\/span><\/span>\u00a0
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

The post Ground Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Spot lithium prices down 80% year to date, now at their lowest level since Sept 2021 Lithium prices could fall further in the shorter-term: E&P [more…]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":2847,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance"],"yoast_head":"\nGround Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024 - Economic Herald<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ground Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024 - Economic Herald\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Spot lithium prices down 80% year to date, now at their lowest level since Sept 2021 Lithium prices could fall further in the shorter-term: E&P [more...]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Economic Herald\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-12-07T02:12:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/bottom-ftmohu.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"\",\"@id\":\"\"},\"headline\":\"Ground Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-12-07T02:12:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846\"},\"wordCount\":788,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/12\\\/bottom-ftmohu.jpeg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Finance\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846\",\"name\":\"Ground Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024 - Economic Herald\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/12\\\/bottom-ftmohu.jpeg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-12-07T02:12:09+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/12\\\/bottom-ftmohu.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/12\\\/bottom-ftmohu.jpeg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":675},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?p=2846#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Ground Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/\",\"name\":\"Economic Herald\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Economic Herald\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/10\\\/cropped-cropped-economicheraldlogo-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/10\\\/cropped-cropped-economicheraldlogo-1.png\",\"width\":850,\"height\":760,\"caption\":\"Economic Herald\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicherald.net\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Ground Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024 - Economic Herald","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Ground Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024 - Economic Herald","og_description":"Spot lithium prices down 80% year to date, now at their lowest level since Sept 2021 Lithium prices could fall further in the shorter-term: E&P [more...]","og_url":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846","og_site_name":"Economic Herald","article_published_time":"2023-12-07T02:12:09+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":675,"url":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/bottom-ftmohu.jpeg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846"},"author":{"name":"","@id":""},"headline":"Ground Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024","datePublished":"2023-12-07T02:12:09+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846"},"wordCount":788,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/bottom-ftmohu.jpeg","articleSection":["Finance"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846","url":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846","name":"Ground Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024 - Economic Herald","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/bottom-ftmohu.jpeg","datePublished":"2023-12-07T02:12:09+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/bottom-ftmohu.jpeg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/bottom-ftmohu.jpeg","width":1200,"height":675},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2846#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Ground Breakers: Where\u2019s the bottom? New lithium miners face uncertainty heading into 2024"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/#website","url":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/","name":"Economic Herald","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/#organization","name":"Economic Herald","url":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/cropped-cropped-economicheraldlogo-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/cropped-cropped-economicheraldlogo-1.png","width":850,"height":760,"caption":"Economic Herald"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2846"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2846\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2847"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}