{"id":2676,"date":"2023-12-04T11:32:19","date_gmt":"2023-12-04T11:32:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2676"},"modified":"2023-12-04T11:32:19","modified_gmt":"2023-12-04T11:32:19","slug":"free-whelan-the-price-of-the-us-10-year-controls-the-world-and-its-already-on-holiday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=2676","title":{"rendered":"FREE WHELAN: The price of the US 10-year controls the world and it\u2019s already on holiday"},"content":{"rendered":"

In this Stockhead series, investment manager\u00a0James Whelan, managing director Barclay Pearce Capital Asset Management<\/a>,\u00a0offers his insights on the key investment themes and trends in domestic and global markets. From macro musings to the metaverse and everything in between, Whelan offers his distilled thoughts on the hot topic of the day, week, month or year, from the point of view of a professional money manager.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Good afternoon all,<\/p>\n

A little late and a little busy on the note as we put the final ribbon on the last deal of the year. Another successful venture and thanks to all who participated.*<\/p>\n

*Ed:<\/strong> See Wellnex Life (ASX:WNX)<\/strong><\/a> (Lead Manager). Placement circa $18m<\/em><\/p>\n

Now for November\u2026 and wow what a blindingly good month.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019d like to see two charts that are closely related please observe:<\/p>\n\n

\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

The price of the US 10-year controls the world<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u2026and when the yield on it moves from ~5% to ~4.25% you see markets put on a casual \u201ceverything rally.\u201d<\/p>\n

And, as I said at the beginning of the month<\/a>, you\u2019ll enjoy being invested.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Drive safe<\/h2>\n

Again, beware of the folks out there saying \u201csince 2008\u2026 what else happened in 2008??? hmmmm???\u201d You know the type. Steer clear of them like potholes.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the most wonderful time of the year for this sort of thing to get pedalled around.<\/p>\n

That being said, this is fascinating\u2026<\/p>\n\n

That is, if you can find the stamina to understand it, it\u2019s fascinating.<\/p>\n

Effectively it echoes something I\u2019ve said before, that returns on markets tend to drop from the first cut onwards. Because usually the first cut is for some reason usually not good and the process of a recession is already started. Sell into pre-recession and buy when it\u2019s declared.<\/p>\n

Just one problem sums up 2023 and that\u2019s the fact everyone has been predicting a recession this year (since last year) and it\u2019s now December and I don\u2019t see no recession.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll put my hand up and say that yes I was one of those too. Consensus recession.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Stats that matter<\/h2>\n\n

Amazingly, and I can\u2019t figure out how, but a strong month usually means a strong year to follow \u2013 13.3% up on average and higher 80% of the time.<\/p>\n

Stay invested.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a link to the podcast to fill in the details you\u2019re after, especially on gold which sees fresh highs on dropping yields and increased geopolitical tensions (apparently)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Finally here\u2019s a little something with Chairman Mao absolutely losing it when he sees Henry Kissinger\u2019s wife for the first time.<\/p>\n

Priceless reaction.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

My favorite Kissinger video was when he introduced his wife to Mao, who got his mind absolutely blown by the height difference pic.twitter.com\/G48eBdYxAO<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) November 30, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n

Stay safe and all the best,<\/p>\n

James<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interview in this article are solely those of the writer and do not represent the views of Stockhead.<\/em><\/p>\n

Stockhead has not provided, endorsed or otherwise assumed responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

The post FREE WHELAN: The price of the US 10-year controls the world and it\u2019s already on holiday<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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