A country agrees to ban all meat production was a stretch but meat emerges as big aspect of addressing climate change
\n2017 prediction of huge gains for Bitcoin as the cryptocurrencies rise not only came true but exceeded expectations
\nWhile timing was off Saxo says \u2018underlying circumstances were remarkably accurate\u2019 for its 2015 prediction of Brexit in 2017<\/p>\n
Each December fintech specialist Saxo unveils its annual Outrageous Predictions for the upcoming year led by its Global SaxoStrats team.<\/p>\n
These predictions don\u2019t reflect Saxo\u2019s primary expectations for the year ahead. Instead, they serve as a series of unlikely events which, if they were to occur, would send shockwaves through financial markets.<\/p>\n
The predictions are never intended to be accurate but rather daringly unconventional. Yet, occasionally, reality aligns itself in an unexpectedly outrageous manner, making some predictions surprisingly accurate.<\/p>\n
The countdown is on for the 2023 Outrageous Predictions due for release this evening at 6pm (AEDT).\u00a0 But before this year\u2019s predictions are released, with the help of Saxo we\u2019ve delved into their archives to uncover the Outrageous Predictions that proved to be somewhat close to reality and the ones surpassing initial expectations.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Market strategist Charu Chanana\u2019s prediction about a country agreeing to ban all meat production by 2030 felt like a bit of a stretch.<\/p>\n
However, on a global scale, meat emerged as a significant aspect in addressing climate change and was included in discussions at the UN-organised COP28, focused on climate change, which is now underway in Dubai.<\/p>\n
The UN is anticipated to release a roadmap for worldwide food systems<\/a>, emphasising the reduction of meat consumption.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile we didn\u2019t see any country banning meat production, we did see a growing recognition that meat (and the consumption of it) needs to be in focus when talking about climate change. So, picking a topic that turns out to get attention and taking it a step further than reality is really what this exercise is about,\u201d says Chanana.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n In 2022 gold failed to rally with any conviction, even as inflation surged to a 40-year high.\u00a0 \u00a0In its 2023 Outrageous Prediction Saxo said central banks realise the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of US$3,000\/ounce.<\/p>\n \u201cWith the arrival of spring, China decides to pivot more fully away from its zero-covid policy, touting effective treatment and maybe even a new vaccine,\u201d Saxo head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen predicted.<\/p>\n \u201cChinese demand unleashed\u00a0again drives a profound new surge in commodity prices, sending inflation soaring, especially in increasingly weak USD terms as the Fed\u2019s new softening on its stance punishes the greenback.<\/p>\n \u201cGold slices through the double top near US$2,075 as if it wasn\u2019t there and hurtles to at least US$3,000 next year.\u201d<\/p>\n So 12 months on Hansen told Stockhead <\/em>central banks did realise inflation wasn\u2019t transitory with a series of hikes in 2023.<\/p>\n And while gold looks like having a Christmas rally, hitting record highs of US$2092.98\/ounce yesterday<\/a> and is up ~18% YTD,\u00a0 it is unlikely to hit US$3,000\/ounce by the end of 2023.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat we\u2019re waiting for now is still a change in the direction of interest rates in the US, where the focus is still on hiking rates to combat inflation,\u201d Hansen says.<\/p>\n \u201cAs we move deeper into 2023, into 2024, we\u2019ll see that focus shift, the economic slowdown in Europe spread to the US, and also we\u2019ve seen that in Asia already.<\/p>\n \u201cThat will start to see a change of focus towards cutting rates, and that peak in rates, together with inflation remaining reasonably elevated, we see as a trigger for higher gold prices \u2013 perhaps not to US$3000, but at least up toward record highs.\u201d<\/p>\n Furthermore, China did pivot away from its zero-covid policy and approved its own vaccine.<\/p>\n China officially ended its zero-covid policy on January 8, 2023 and in\u00a0March the country approved a a new mRNA vaccine, developed by CSPC Pharmaceutical Group<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n As cryptocurrencies, notably Bitcoin, gained traction SaxoStrats foresaw a substantial surge in its value.\u00a0 The rationale behind this surge was attributed to the overspending of the US President Donald Trump\u2019s administration, resulting in increased national debt and soaring inflation along with a global inclination to move away from central bank currencies.<\/p>\n Saxo says the Outrageous Prediction not only came true but exceeded expectations, with Bitcoin\u2019s price nearly reaching $20k at its peak in 2017.<\/p>\n However, circumstances surrounding the prediction were not entirely precise. The meteoric rise of Bitcoin was less driven by the macroeconomic trends of the Trump era and more by speculative investment.<\/p>\n Saxo says a retrospective view of the subsequent surges in cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin in 2021, validated the justifications outlined in its 2017 Outrageous Prediction.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n In the Outrageous Predictions for 2015, SaxoStrats forecasted that the UK Independence Party (UKIP) would secure 25% of the national vote in the British general election on May 7, 2015, creating a sensational shift as the third largest party in parliament.<\/p>\n It was envisaged that UKIP would later form a coalition government with David Cameron\u2019s Conservatives, consequently initiating the planned referendum on Britain\u2019s EU membership in 2017. This scenario would lead to a notable spike in UK government debt yields.<\/p>\n Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen said while the timing was slightly askew, the underlying circumstances were remarkably accurate. A referendum on continued EU presence was held in 2016 with the official Brexit taking place at 11pm\u00a0 GMT on January\u00a0 31, 2020.<\/p>\n \u201cWe had a very strong sense that \u2018protest votes\u2019 would be coming both in the US election and also ultimately in a vote on Brexit,\u201d Jakobsen says.<\/p>\n \u201cWe, to some extent, correctly talked about the \u2018social-contract being broken\u2019 \u2013 meaning society no longer benefitted as a whole from monetary policy, which created an increased gap in equality.<\/p>\n \u201cThis call was too early, but the context and reasoning was spot on.<\/p>\n \u201cThe split in the Tory Party could not be healed and the modus operandi of \u2018talking down to the voters\u2019 was a blatant mistake, which we used for this call.\u201d<\/p>\n At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Saxo is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.<\/em><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n The post Saxo\u2019s Annual Outrageous Predictions: Which ones came close to hitting the bullseye over the years?<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"2023: Gold rockets to $US3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate<\/strong><\/h2>\n
2017: Huge gains for Bitcoin as the cryptocurrencies rise<\/h2>\n
2015 Outrageous Prediction:\u00a0Brexit in 2017<\/h2>\n