\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
RBA, FOMC minutes overshadowed by hawkish tilt from Gov. Bullock<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n In the local central bank\u2019s minutes, the RBA Board, led by new Gov. M. Bullock, highlighted the recent indictors wherein lingering resilience in labour market and domestic demand lines up pretty well with the sluggish moderation in underlying inflation \u2013 the States might be shifting gears vs inflation but we\u2019re moving both behind the pack and slower than expected.<\/p>\n Speaking last week in Sydney, RBA Governor M. Bullock said homegrown inflation is behind our cost of living crisis and that she\u2019d do whatever was required with the \u201cblunt tools\u2019 at the bank\u2019s disposal to put that genie back in the bottle.<\/p>\n It was, in fact a reiteration of the minutes, released on Tuesday:<\/p>\n \u201cHigh inflation was being underpinned by above-average price rises for a wide range of consumer goods and services\u2026 There was clear evidence \u2013 most notably for services price inflation, which was quite brisk \u2013 that this owed to domestically generated pressures associated with aggregate demand exceeding aggregate supply.\u201d<\/p>\n Local stocks were knocked about by this and falling commodity prices midweek \u2013 the benchmark ASX200 ending the week -0.25% lower.<\/p>\n However, money markets are still reckoning it\u2019s something like a 1 in 20 chance that the RBA will hike again when it next meets on December 5.<\/p>\n Nvidia, 11 months later<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n In the US, the chip making, trillion US dollar Mega Tech stock, Nvidia (NVDA) beat everyone except its own guidance after Q3 sales tripled from a year earlier to US$18.1 billion.<\/p>\n Profit, meantime, surged 14x to US$9.2bn.<\/p>\n But for all that\u2026 the NVDA stock was almost -3.5% lower last week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n Of course, in the bigger picture that won\u2019t worry too many\u2026 the share price has done this in a month<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n And this over the year to date:<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Via Google<\/em><\/p>\n READ MORE: This is what Stockhead said about NVDA during our \u2018Meet Nvidia Week\u2019 back in February<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n A good year for NVDA, and it\u2019s not over yet.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Last week was a wee turnaround for oil prices, clocking US$76\/barrel for WTI, yet prices wallow below levels observed at the beginning of this ongoing horror show in Israel and Gaza.<\/p>\n Now there\u2019s cracks in OPEC+ and expectations the cartel might not go deepen output cuts next year. The producer group has postponed its policy meeting to November 30, adding to production cut uncertainties.<\/p>\n Iron ore\u2019s jumped to $127\/tonne \u2013 its best score since June. That\u2019s on the back of Chinese regulators and a supposed list of 50 private and state-owned developers eligible for special funding as Beijing looks for fun new ways to bolster the property sector.<\/p>\n Back in the States ahead of the Thanksgiving exodus, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Tuesday released the minutes for the Oct-Nov cash rate meet \u2013 deciding that a \u201cfurther softening in labour market conditions\u201d was a must have<\/em> for the FOMC to feel reconciled that inflation will return to target.<\/p>\n And right on cue, the FOMC got the proof they wanted the next day with the US October jobless numbers providing just the downside surprise on both headline and core inflation to see inflation Stateside is now moving lower.<\/p>\n The New York Stock Exchange punters have been betting so for a few weeks now.<\/p>\n Which is why US Treasury yields on Friday clocked multi-month lows on the weight around cooling inflation and a relaxing Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n The three major US indices rising for a fourth straight positive week over Thanksgiving \u2014 the longest run of gains for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq since June.<\/p>\n CNBC says the Dow Jones Industrial, (up +1.3% last week), hasn\u2019t been off on a big long green run of gains like this since around Easter.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Local markets have been looking like they needed to rotate the strike and last week they indeed managed to get some down time with the US Thanksgiving break allowing markets to catch a breath on light volumes and thinner crowds.<\/p>\n Growth stocks especially within the IT and Real Estate were the weakest two sectors, while Aussie Resources stocks \u2013 all within the influential Energy, Financials and Materials Sectors \u2013 were the 3 sectors to come out of it with slight gains.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0Via MarketIndex<\/em><\/p>\n The ASX benchmark traded within a 0.9% range as the bigger cap end of town pretty well reflected the sector level moves over the week. As these standout performances suggest\u2026<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n ASX DIGGERS:<\/strong><\/p>\n Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL)<\/strong><\/a> +10.7%, Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC)<\/strong><\/a> +8%, Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN)<\/strong><\/a> +6.7% and De Grey Mining (ASX:DEG)<\/strong><\/a> +4.5%<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n ASX MONEY:<\/strong><\/p>\n Generation Development Group (ASX:GDG)<\/strong><\/a> +5.15%,\u00a0Income Asset Management Group (ASX:IAM)<\/strong><\/a> +4.94%, E&P Financial Group (ASX:EP1)<\/strong><\/a> +4.90% and Suncorp Group (ASX:SUN)<\/strong><\/a> +3.3%.<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n ASX GROWTH and HOMES:<\/strong><\/p>\n Healius (ASX:HLS)<\/strong><\/a> -23.5%<\/span>, Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR)<\/strong><\/a> -10.7%<\/span>, Technology One (ASX:TNE)<\/strong><\/a> -7.2%<\/span>, Charter Hall (ASX:CHC)<\/strong><\/a> -4.2%<\/span>, and Mirvac (ASX:MGR)<\/strong><\/a> -3.7%.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Best performing ASX small cap stocks from November 20-24:<\/p>\n Swipe or scroll to reveal full table. Click headings to sort:<\/p>\n\n WordPress Tables Plugin<\/a><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n One of the biggest lithium IPOs of 2023, Chariot Corporation (ASX:CC9)<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0was up 145% this week on no specific news.\u00a0 CC9 has one of the largest lithium exploration landholdings in the US and various JVs, farm outs and optioned projects.<\/p>\n READ MORE:<\/strong><\/em>How Chariot outsmarted a major to get a mountain of lithium. Literally, a mountain<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Sunshine Metals (ASX:SHN)<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0rose 100% this week after the microcap announced it had intersected multiple high-grade gold zones in the first of 12 RC holes at its Liontown prospect at the Ravenswood Consolidated project in northern QLD, including 17m @ 22.14g\/t from 67m.<\/p>\n The zones are interpreted to be gold and copper-rich feeder zones to the overlying 2.3Mt resource<\/p>\n Armada Metals (ASX:AMM)<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0rose 93% this week after picking up four early-stage lithium exploration projects for $150k cash and 26m shares in the emerging hard rock hub of Brazil.<\/p>\n Chairman Rick Anthon said the company was a lot like Freddy Mercury in wanting it all \u2013 saying the deal was an \u2018exciting transaction\u2026 as we diversify both geographically and into lithium, while remaining in the critical metals space.\u2019<\/p>\n \u201cThis area in Brazil is attracting significant exploration attention for the potential discovery of lithium-bearing pegmatites, with a number of other operators in the region and known occurrences.<\/p>\n \u201cThis new planned acquisition, along with our nickel projects in Africa, especially the Bend Nickel Project in Zimbabwe where we are currently drilling and results are expected soon, offers exciting new opportunity to Armada and its shareholders.\u201d<\/p>\n The $10m capped stock has almost recovered its year-to-date losses on today\u2019s news.<\/p>\n It had ~$2m in the bank at the end of September.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Finally, Roots Sustainable Agricultural Technologies (ASX:ROO)<\/strong><\/a> had a terrific week on the bourse, up 75%.<\/p>\n The Israeli-based ROO has a passion for managing a plant\u2019s root zone temperatures in the face of the shortage of water for irrigation. It\u2019s jumped today after successfully delivering equipment from Israel to the United Arab Emirates, for a major client Silal Food and Technology.<\/p>\n The ag-tech it has supplied is set to be installed this week, enabling the demonstration of the \u201capplication of Root Zone Temperature optimisation technology as part of its berry farming operations at the COP28 global conference at Expo City, Dubai in early December\u201d.<\/p>\n It needed a win too, as you can see:<\/p>\n Via MarketIndex<\/em><\/p>\n James Gerrish at Market Matters<\/a> says his team continues to expect equities to rally into Christmas.<\/p>\n \u201cThe second half of December (is) traditionally the strongest period as many investors enjoy the bountiful dividends from the banks,\u201d he told Stockhead.<\/p>\n \u201cThe end of this week will herald the last month of 2023\u2026 let\u2019s hope we are correct, and a few good weeks can at least see us wave goodbye to a tough year with some gains for the index.<\/p>\n \u201cSo far, the ASX200 is up just two points after 11-months of toil.\u201d<\/p>\n Although, as I look at their<\/em> numbers, it seems the Market Matters Active Growth Portfolio<\/a> is up over +13%<\/em> year-to-date.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Pretty serious this week, regarding our near-term inflation futures.<\/p>\n The October monthly CPI indicator will drop and that\u2019ll be the kicker.<\/p>\n The indicator will be an important update on how other parts of the basket are tracking. There\u2019s quite a few moving parts for the October numbers.<\/p>\n Government policies will momentarily take some of the sting out of rents and energy inflation while strength in new housing, health insurance and domestic travel prices will provide an offset.<\/p>\n CBA forecasts consumer prices to be flat in the month, taking the annual rate down to 5.2%.<\/p>\n Some of the early building blocks of Q3 GDP will also print next week.<\/p>\n Retail trade figures for October are due and will be very, very closely watched.<\/p>\n Spending rebounded in the September quarter as mega events like the FIFA Women\u2019s World Cup helped ther splurging.<\/p>\n Indeed, inflation adjusted retail spending registered positive growth (+0.2%\/qtr) for the first time since the corresponding quarter in 2022.<\/p>\n That said, real retail spending per capita continued to decline in Q3 23.<\/p>\n According to CBA\u2019s internal spending data, October points to a return to weakness.<\/p>\n \u201cWe forecast a solid contraction of 0.6%. Seasonal factors may be at play and the upshot of this being we are likely to experience some volatility in the monthly retail numbers for the next few months,\u201d CBA economist Harry Ottley observed last week.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro,<\/em> shares his key focus points for the week ahead<\/p>\n AU Retail Sales\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n On Tuesday, the latest retail sales figure will be delivered. As always, retail sales is a key data point on the RBA\u2019s list and often provides valuable foresight for the direction of interest rates. A resilient consumer this year has seen spending hold up well, despite consumer surveys telling us that households are increasingly pessimistic.<\/p>\n With retail spending still high, the fear is that this will continue to feed inflation, the very challenge the RBA is trying to combat. If households continue to splash cash, it gives the RBA headroom to hike rates further should they feel necessary. With RBA Governor Bullock maintaining a relatively wary tone in her most recent address, a buoyant set of retail figures on Tuesday could mean a further hawkish tone from the RBA. However, next\u00a0week<\/span>\u2019s figures may show the signs of a spending slowdown, with a contraction of 0.3% expected. This will be a step in the right direction and good news locally. Retail sales numbers may be skewed in the months ahead with seasonal spending, but a contraction next\u00a0week<\/span>\u00a0would be well welcomed by investors.<\/p>\n AU Monthly CPI\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n After Bullock\u2019s aforementioned hawkish tone throughout the\u00a0week<\/span>, it\u2019s fitting that on Wednesday, the monthly CPI reading is released. The RBA Governor expressed her concerns this\u00a0week<\/span>\u00a0that the inflation challenge is \u201cincreasingly homegrown and demand-driven\u201d, showing there is still work to do locally.<\/p>\n It\u2019s worth noting that, whilst other Central Banks are ending their tightening cycles, Australia seems far from a conclusion. The key for other nations has been higher interest rates.<\/p>\n The BOE sits at 5.25%, and the Fed sits at 5.25-5.5%, both just under 100bps higher than the RBA\u2019s cash rate. Clearly, the board feels there is more work to be done on inflation \u2013 and that could, therefore, mean the cash rate has higher to go.<\/p>\n The good news is that the CPI indicator is expected to ease next\u00a0week<\/span>\u00a0to 5.3% from 5.6% in September. This is a welcome prediction for many, given other deciding factors, such as unemployment and retail sales, remain stubborn.<\/p>\n Black Friday and Cyber Monday\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Originally an American tradition, Black Friday sales have well and truly ingrained themselves in the Australian calendar. Today\u2019s deals are more than a one-day event, however, with the more e-commerce-focused Cyber Monday bookending this weekend and plenty of retailers extending their deals into next\u00a0week<\/span>\u00a0to drive as much pre-Christmas foot traffic as possible.<\/p>\n According to retail groups, the annual sales event is set to eclipse the once-unbeatable Boxing Day sales phenomenon. With consumer habits now well and truly adjusted to go all-in on a late November splurge, retailers now see little choice but to participate or risk missing out on one of the biggest consumer events of the year.<\/p>\n While the true impact won\u2019t show up in next\u00a0week<\/span>\u2019s retail sales figures, December results will likely indicate a jump in spending over November, something that may well be a key factor in driving ongoing rate rises into the new year.<\/p>\n\n All sources from Commsec, Westpac, Trading Economics, S&P Global Intelligence and Investing.com<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n MONDAY<\/strong> TUESDAY<\/strong> WEDNESDAY<\/strong> THURSDAY<\/strong> FRIDAY<\/strong> \u00a0<\/p>\n MONDAY<\/strong> TUESDAY<\/strong> WEDNESDAY<\/strong> THURSDAY<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n The post Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to get ready for the week ahead<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Inflation, oil, iron ore and Easter<\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\n
Local markets also gave some thanks\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/h2>\n
ASX Sectors Last Week<\/h2>\n
Last Week\u2019s Small Cap Honour Roll\u00a0<\/em><\/h2>\n
The Week Ahead<\/h2>\n
Gilbert\u2019s 3 things to watch for this week<\/h2>\n
The Aussie Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Monday November 27 \u2013 Friday December 1<\/h2>\n
\nAustralia-Retail Sales-Retail Sales MM Final<\/p>\n
\nNope<\/p>\n
\nAustralia Construction Work Done Q3 23
\nAustralia CPI Monthly-YY
\nAustralia CPI annual trimmed mean YY<\/p>\n
\nAustralia Building Approval Total YY
\nAustralia M3 Money Supply
\nAustralia Business capex-Plant\/Machinery Capex
\nAustralia Private sector credit\/Housing Credit<\/p>\n
\nAustralia Home prices CoreLogic<\/p>\nThe Everyone Else Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Monday November 27 \u2013 Friday December 1<\/h2>\n
\nChina (Mainland)-Sales & Orders-Industrial profit YTD
\nFrance-Consumer confidence-Consumer Confidence
\nBrazil-Current account-Foreign Direct Investment
\nFrance-Labor Mkt-Unemployment Class-A SA
\nUnited Kingdom-CBI reported sales-CBI Distributive Trades
\nUnited States-Build Permits revised-Build Permits R Chg MM
\nUnited States-New Home Sales-New Home Sales Chg MM
\nUnited States-Dallas Fed mfg-Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx
\nUnited States-Bill Auction \u2013 3 & 6 month-6M Bill Auction
\nUnited States-Bill Auction \u2013 3 Month-3M Bill Auction
\nUnited States-Note Auction \u2013 2 year-2Y Note Auction
\nUnited States-Note Auction \u2013 5 year-5Y Note Auction
\nSouth Korea-Consumer sentiment Index<\/p>\n
\nGermany-GfK consumer confidence-GfK
\nFrance-Consumer confidence
\nTaiwan-GDP Revised-GDP YY Revised
\nBrazil-Inflation Prelim-IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI YY
\nBrazil-Bank Lending-Bank Lending MM
\nUnited States US Pork Export Sales Net
\nUnited States \u2013 Redbook
\nUnited States-FHFA Monthly Home Price Index
\nUnited States \u2013 Shiller Home Prices
\nUnited States-Consumer confidence-Consumer Confidence
\nUnited States Exp Soybean Inspected
\nUnited States-Richmond Fed Mfg Shipments
\nUnited States Dallas Fed Services Revenues
\nUnited States-Bill Auction \u2013 12 month-12M Bill Auction
\nBrazil Central Govt Balance
\nUnited States-Note Auction \u2013 7 Year-7Y Note Auction
\nSouth Korea-Business Sentiment Index (BSI)-BOK Manufacturing BSI
\nUnited States-API OIL STOCKS-API Cushing number<\/p>\n
\nFrance Non-Farm Payrolls Revised
\nGermany CPI YY
\nSwitzerland-ZEW-Investor Sentiment
\nUnited Kingdom-Consumer Credit
\nBrazil-IGP-M Inflation-IGP-M Inflation Index
\nBrazil-Labour costs-CAGED Net Payroll Jobs
\nBrazil-Budget balance-Net Debt\/GDP Ratio
\nIndia M3 Money Supply
\nBrazil-PPI MM
\nUnited States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate
\nGermany Inflation Prelim-HICP Prelim YY
\nUnited States Prelim-Corporate Profits Prelim
\nUnited States GDP Prelim-PCE Prices Prelim
\nUnited States-Good Trade balance (Adv)-Retail Inventories Ex-Auto
\nUnited States-EIA OIL STOCKS-EIA Weekly Gasoline
\nBrazil-Labour costs-CAGED Net Payroll Jobs
\nBrazil-Foreign reserves-Foreign Exchange Flows
\nSouth Korea-Industrial output prelim-Retail Sales MM
\nJapan-Capital flows data-Foreign Stock Investment
\nJapan-Industrial output prelim-Industrial O\/P Prelim
\nJapan-IP Forecast 1 Month-IP Forecast 1 Mth Ahead
\nJapan-Retail Sales-Large Scale Retail Sales YY<\/p>\n
\nSouth Korea Bank of Korea Base Rate
\nChina (Mainland)-Non-Mfg PMI-NBS Non-Mfg PMI
\nChina (Mainland)-PMI Manuf-Composite PMI
\nJapan Consumer Confid. Index
\nJapan Housing starts YY
\nGermany Import Prices YY
\nGermany Retail Sales-Retail Sales YY Real
\nSwitzerland Retail Sales\u00a0 YY
\nFrance-Consumer spending MM
\nFrance GDP Final YY
\nFrance-Inflation CPI Prelim MM NSA
\nFrance-Producer Prices-Producer Prices YY
\nSwitzerland-Leading indicator-KOF Indicator
\nSwitzerland-Reserves-Official Reserves Assets
\nGermany-Unemployment-Unemployment
\nIndia-Fiscal Deficit-Fed Fiscal Deficit
\nBrazil-Jobless rate-Unemployment Rate
\nIndia-GDP Detail-GDP Quarterly YY
\nIndia-Infrastructure output-Infrastructure Output YY
\nUnited States Jobless claims
\nUnited States-Budget-Personal Income MM
\nUnited States-Consumption-PCE Svs Price Exl Energy & Hsg
\nUnited States US Pork Export Sales Net
\nUnited States-Jobless-Initial Jobless Claims<\/p>\n<\/h2>\n
<\/h2>\n