Thailand\u2019s economy faces a significant hit if U.S. President Donald Trump moves ahead with sweeping reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, according to InnovestX Securities<\/strong>. The brokerage warns that GDP growth could fall from 2.5% to just 1.3%<\/strong> in a worst-case scenario, with Bank of Thailand\u2019s expected rate cut offering little relief<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Thailand is reportedly on Trump\u2019s so-called “Dirty 15”<\/strong> list of trade partners facing higher tariffs. While the average U.S. tariff on Thai goods is currently 2%, Thailand imposes an average tariff of 8% on American products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Piyasak Manason<\/strong>, head of economic research at InnovestX, outlined four scenarios in which U.S. tariffs could vary from stable rates to increases above 10%:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn the worst case, the central bank\u2019s policy rate cut will be ineffective due to the scale of the economic shock,\u201d said Piyasak. Thailand\u2019s 29% export exposure to the U.S.<\/strong> leaves it especially vulnerable \u2014 higher than Malaysia\u2019s 26% but below Vietnam\u2019s 47%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Stagflation fears and sector-specific risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n