What grabbed the headlines last week?<\/p>\n
Last week was dominated at home by the hotter-than-hoped for May CPI Indicator.<\/p>\n
It indicated that while everyone else goes out to play with shiny new lower interest rates, we\u2019ll be sitting in the corner with an unfunny hat on.<\/p>\n
The print of 4.0% was above consensus of 3.8%.<\/p>\n
Futures markets and economists are now factoring in an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank sometime before Christmas, possibly August \u2013 not least because the next few months will likely see Albo\u2019s extra budget spend start flooding the economy.<\/p>\n
On this front, we\u2019re on our own.<\/p>\n
Tardy to the raising party and last out the door to the cutting.<\/p>\n
We were late. It wasn\u2019t great. Via AMP<\/em><\/p>\n The Swiss have cut, Team Lagarde at the ECB have cut. Even the Canucks at the BOC have cut rates.<\/p>\n The US Fed is more or less a likely contender to soon do the same after a gentle week of US data, which keeps the kids tilting to the dovish side..<\/p>\n For the week, the benchmark ASX200 (XJO) index finished down 24.9 points or 0.32% lower, while the IT (XIJ) and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) indices closed up +2.60%, and down 1.33%, respectively.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Via Morningstar<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Despite ending on a week of relative weakness, all in all, FY24 was kind to investors and fanboys of equities.<\/p>\n According to the calculator of AMP\u2019s chief economist & head of investment strategy, Dr Shane Oliver, stocks were actually the star performers over the last financial year.<\/p>\n Shane says US shares returning around 25%, global shares around 21% and Aussie share shares around 12%.<\/p>\n \u201cCash returned around 4.5% and bonds returned around 2-3% but unlisted commercial property remained negative as office valuations remained under pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n The main drivers of stock market strength (for some time) has been the apparent promise of lower interest rates on the back of lower inflation, stronger than expected economic activity and profits particularly in the US and, for US shares, the enthusiasm for AI.<\/p>\n Shane says local markets did well but were \u201crelative laggards on the back of ongoing China worries\u201d and angst about the impact of rate hikes on Australian households.<\/p>\n \u201cMore constrained and more volatile returns are likely over the 2024-25 financial year reflecting:<\/p>\n poor valuations evident in the narrow earnings yield less bond yield gap; Meanwhile, the only ASX stock of any cap to break on through to the +100% side for the week was Encounter Resources (ASX:ENR)<\/strong><\/a>, although my comrade in work and play, Mr Gregor \u2018I Wanna Know What Love Is\u2019<\/em> Stronach<\/a> did note that mining and resources governance software provider K2Fly (ASX:K2F)<\/strong><\/a> was indeed pretty fly.<\/p>\n \u201cThe stock gained about 80% last week after the company has closed a deal with Accel-KKR to buy the whole kit and kaboodle at 0.19 cash per share,\u201d Gregor wrote.<\/p>\n ENR proved to be the best of a pretty ordinary bunch last week, after unearthing a bunch of niobium at the company\u2019s 100% owned Aileron project in the West Arunta region of WA.<\/p>\n The pick of the intercepts:<\/p>\n 2m at 3.0% Nb2O5 from 81m to EOH including 16m at 6.0% Nb2O5 \u00a0<\/p>\n The ASX Small Ords (XSO) and the ASX Emerging Co\u2019s (XEC) indices ended the day higher; the week lower, the month more lower and FY24 ahead by +6.5% and +3.85% respectively.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n\n Via MarketIndex<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Over the past five days, the index has lifted 0.93% and is now 1.45% off of its 52-week high.<\/p>\n Seven of the 11 ASX sectors made gains over the last week.\u00a0 IT added an impressive 3.7% over the past five days.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Via MarketIndex<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n US equities fizzled in New York on Friday as\u00a0 traders jostled for premium portfolio positioning to close out the half. Made doubly urgent as US President Joe Biden turned into an incoherent dribbling mess on live telly.<\/p>\n\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The S&P500 fell -0.4%, the CAC40 lost 0.7% and the Euro STOXX50 dropped -0.2% with some music being faced by the French as I write.<\/p>\n We spoke to friends on Sunday in Paris and the mood in Le Marais district in the 4th arrondissement \u2013 once the Parisian Jewish quarter \u2013 is apparently tr\u00e8s tense.<\/p>\n Screenshot via LeMonde<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Let\u2019s do some bullets:<\/p>\n The abysmal Trump vs Biden US presidential debate went south from the get go. Trump was the clear winner. Everyone else the clear losers.<\/p>\n The ex-president spent the night lobbing insults and sprouting vagaries, but at least he was comprehensible.<\/p>\n The president, on the other hand, was not.<\/p>\n On Wall Street, we\u2019re midway through 2024 and the major US indices have blitzed it.<\/p>\n The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are scaling regular new all-time highs, up 15% and 18%, respectively year to date.<\/p>\n The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has less exposure to tech stocks, has risen nearly 4% year to date.<\/p>\n Behind most of the fireworks are a handful of companies, led by AI chip monster, Nvidia.<\/p>\n In the past few weeks of business, Nvidia surpassed Microsoft to join Apple beyond the $3 trillion threshold to become the world\u2019s most valuable listed company.<\/p>\n The market darling added the latest $1 trillion to its market cap.<\/p>\n From around January 2023, NVDA has grown its market cap by circa +800%. It\u2019s the moon around which other markets orbit now.<\/p>\n If Nvidia sneezes, Wall Street gets Athlete\u2019s Head.<\/p>\n Last week, Walgreens Boots Alliance was the worst performer in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The pharmacy line lost more than 21% after slashing its outlook following soft results and a sudden strategic shift.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Closer to home, a gaggle of PMIs out of China this weekend were profoundly middling in size, strength and nature. Beijing just appears disconcertingly disinterested in getting out front of an economic revival amid weak demand, deflationary factors and most worryingly, the lingering uncertainty surrounding the country\u2019s giant\u00a0 property market.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The new financial year starts with a bang of macro data releases including worldwide PMI data, while key official updates include US payrolls, EU inflation and Japan\u2019s Tankan updates.<\/p>\n First things first, though.<\/p>\n On Wednesday in Istanbul, the Turkish version of our Bureau of Numbers \u2013 the T\u00dc\u0130K \u2013 will drop another set of always stunning consumer price inflation (CPI) numbers.<\/p>\n Economists are expecting a CPI lift of 2.2% in June which would take Turkey\u2019s annual inflation rate to 72.6%<\/p>\n The RBA releases its latest meeting minutes, in the states, there\u2019s also the June Fed minutes due to drop \u2013 and elections in the UK and in Europe.<\/p>\n The first week of July also sees the release of worldwide manufacturing and services PMI data on Monday and Wednesday.<\/p>\n At home we can also look forward to Aussie trade data, while The Bureau also drops Building Permits and Retail trade data on Wednesday.<\/p>\n Finally, this morning is the monthly CoreLogic read on national home prices.<\/p>\n CBA expects Aussie home prices rose by 0.7%\/mth in June, a slightly lower pace than the 0.8%\/mth recorded in May. The gains continue to be led by the mid\u2011tier capital cities of Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY<\/strong> FRIDAY<\/strong> The post Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to get ready for the week ahead<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\nelevated levels of investor sentiment; and technically overbought conditions with narrowing breadth in the critical US market at a time when Nvidia and the tech sector is seeing some wobbles;
\nhigh geopolitical risks around France and the US as the first presidential debate focusses attention on the big negative of a renewed trade war if Trump is re-elected (with Biden\u2019s awful performance not helping at a time when Trump is already ahead in the polls).<\/p>\n
\n32m at 2.5% Nb2O5 from 67m to EOH including 12m at 3.3% Nb2O5
\n15m at 1.5% Nb2O5 from 120m to EOH including 2m at 3.3% Nb2O5<\/p>\nASX Sectors last week<\/h2>\n
Not the ASX<\/h2>\n
The week ahead<\/h2>\n
The Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n
Monday July 1 \u2013 Friday July 5<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\nCanada, Hong Kong SAR Market Holiday<\/strong><\/em>
\nWorldwide Manufacturing PMIs, incl. global PMI (Jun)
\nSouth Korea Trade (Jun)
\nIndonesia Inflation (Jun)
\nJapan Consumer Confidence (Jun)
\nUnited Kingdom Nationwide House Prices (Jun)
\nUnited Kingdom Mortgage Lending and Approvals (May)
\nGermany Inflation (Jun, prelim)
\nUnited States ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)<\/p>\n
\nSouth Korea Inflation (Jun)
\nAustralia RBA Meeting Minutes (Jun)<\/strong><\/em>
\nEurozone Inflation (Jun, flash)
\nCanada Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
\nUnited States JOLTs Job Openings (May)<\/p>\n
\nUnited States Market Holiday (Partial)<\/strong><\/em>
\nWorldwide Services, Composite PMIs, inc. global PMI (Jun)
\nJapan Tankan Index (Q2)
\nAustralia Building Permits, Retail Sales (May, prelim)
\nTurkey Inflation (Jun)
\nBrazil Industrial Production (May)
\nUnited States ADP Employment Change (Jun)
\nCanada Trade (May)
\nUnited States Trade, Factory Orders (May)
\nUnited States ISM Services PMI (Jun)
\nUnited States FOMC Minutes (Jun)<\/p>\n
\nUnited States Market Holiday<\/strong><\/em>
\nHong Kong SAR PMI (Jun)
\nAustralia Trade (May)
\nSwitzerland Inflation and Unemployment Rate (Jun)
\nGermany Factory Orders (May)
\nUnited Kingdom Construction PMI (Jun)
\nEurozone HCOB Construction PMI (Jun)
\nCanada Services PMI (Jun)
\nGlobal Sector PMI (Jun)
\nUnited Kingdom General Election<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
\nJapan Household Spending (May)
\nThailand Inflation (Jun)
\nGermany Industrial Production (May)
\nUnited Kingdom Halifax House Price Index* (Jun)
\nFrance Industrial Production and Trade (May)
\nTaiwan Inflation (Jun
\nEurozone Retail Sales (May)
\nCanada Employment (Jun)
\nUnited States Non-farm Payrolls (Jun)<\/p>\n