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China\u2019s steel output rebounded in May, but it may be hard to remain optimistic
\nAround 1000 jobs to go as MinRes announces plans to shut marginal Yilgarn iron ore operations in WA
\nJameson runs after Canadian coking coal play issues shares<\/p>\n
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Iron ore stocks have been real money spinners in recent times, with BHP (ASX:BHP)<\/strong><\/a>, Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO)<\/strong><\/a> and Fortescue (ASX:FMG)<\/strong><\/a> pumping out some of their strongest dividends in the past five years in response to enduring high prices for the steelmaking commodity.<\/p>\n But those good times have been tempered with some anxiety, a state which the industry, so dependent on the demand side on China\u2019s flailing real estate industry, is no stranger to.<\/p>\n Iron ore rose surprisingly despite questions around the state of the Chinese economy to over US$140\/t late last year.<\/p>\n It has since fallen back to ~US$107\/t, levels which remain highly profitable for low cost Aussie majors, but a little tenuous for smaller marginal producers.<\/p>\n Sentiment around prices often swings on steel production in China, which buys around 80% of the world\u2019s seaborne iron ore and produces almost 60% of its crude steel.<\/p>\n New figures out of the Middle Kingdom show production is down 1.4% from January to May.<\/p>\n But there could be a little to smile about, with output up 2.7% in May, the first time it has risen on a year on year basis since February.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Commonwealth Bank\u2019s mining doyen Vivek Dhar said in a note yesterday a turnaround in Chinese steel mill margins, suddenly positive as steel prices consolidated and input prices for iron ore and coal fell, prompted a sharp lift in output in May.<\/p>\n \u201cThe rise in steel output last month is broadly consistent with steel mill margins in China turning positive in late April and early May. Given the significant negative steel mill margins that were sustained from late September 2023, it\u2019s not too surprising to see steel mills respond swiftly to a brief period of positive margins,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n But a reversion to negative territory for steel margins make it \u201chard to remain optimistic\u201d that June\u2019s numbers will improve on 2023\u2019s, a year in which China surprisingly lifted steel output, albeit slightly, after two straight years of declines from 2020\u2019s record high.<\/p>\n According to MySteel rebar profits which rose to US$10.50\/t in April reversed to a US$1.80\/t loss in May.<\/p>\n While crude steel output lifted in May, National Bureau of Statistics figures show rebar production was down 8.9% year on year, while YTD rebar production has slowed 13%.<\/p>\n Reinforced bar is strongly associated with end markets in infrastructure and property construction, with new home builds already known to be well down in 2024.<\/p>\n Dhar said waning enthusiasm around property stimulus had hurt steel prices.<\/p>\n \u201cThe government was willing to lend RMB 300 billion to purchase unsold properties, with hopes that it would be enough to generate total funding of RMB 500 billion, as Chinese commercial banks step in with additional loans,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cThere are credible concerns that China\u2019s total funding objective undershoots what is truly required (~RMB 2.5 trillion to ~RMB 7 trillion) to absorb excess housing stock in China. China\u2019s property sector accounts for ~30% of China\u2019s steel demand.\u201d<\/p>\n Dhar still thinks steel demand and output in China will track sideways across the year, underpinning a business as usual outlook for iron ore prices that would see them remain between US$100-110\/t in the second half of 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cIf infrastructure investment fails to pick up, the risk to our outlook is a fall in China\u2019s steel production and iron ore prices finding support below $US100\/t (62% Fe, CFR China) in coming months,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s worth noting that while policy may be focusing for now on stabilising the property sector, it will eventually turn its attention to economic targets set for 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cThis means that negative outcomes for China\u2019s property and infrastructure sectors in coming months boosts the likelihood of more additional centrally administered infrastructure investment towards the back end of the year.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Speaking of those marginal iron ore players, Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN)<\/strong><\/a> dealt some tough late breaking news to the market by declaring its Yilgarn Hub in WA\u2019s Goldfields would be closed by the end of 2024.<\/p>\n The project, which includes the historic Koolyanobbing mine near Southern Cross once operated by BHP, is not financially viable, according to MinRes, which has limited mine life across a network of five operations across 220km.<\/p>\n A transition to care and maintenance will begin in early 2025, several years after MinRes purchased the operations of the departing Cleveland Cliffs in a WA Government brokered process that included now expired royalty relief.<\/p>\n The then Mark McGowan-led Labor Government had engineered the sale to keep hundreds of wharfies employed at the southern WA port of Esperance after the US steelmaker announced its intention to close the site at a time when discounts for its lower grade ore made Koolyanobbing unprofitable.<\/p>\n MinRes had been barred from developing an environmentally contentious deposit on the nearby Helena Aurora Range, with Koolyanobbing providing the scale to keep its Carina operations running.<\/p>\n MinRes, which recently announced the start of shipments from the $3 billion, 35Mtpa Onslow Iron project in the West Pilbara and also runs the lower cost Utah Point hub exporting from Port Hedland, said 1000 employees would be impacted by the decision.<\/p>\n There are around 800 vacancies in the lithium, iron ore miner and mining services company\u2019s business, it said.<\/p>\n \u201cThis prudent but difficult decision was not taken lightly and follows years of investment to extend the life of our operations in the Yilgarn,\u201d MinRes boss Chris Ellison said.<\/p>\n \u201cWith our investment across Western Australia, we have almost 800 vacancies and will redeploy as many of our people as possible to other MinRes operations, including to our low-cost, long-life Onslow Iron project.<\/p>\n \u201cMinRes has operated in the region since our maiden shipment from Carina in 2011. In 2018, with the support of the WA Government, we stepped in to save hundreds of Western Australian jobs at Koolyanobbing that were set to be lost with the departure of Cliffs.<\/p>\n \u201cBy the end of this year, we will have operated Koolyanobbing for six and a half years, exported almost 45 million tonnes via the Port of Esperance and spent $4.2 billion running our Yilgarn operation, exceeding our commitments.<\/p>\n \u201cI want to thank everyone whose hard work and dedication over the past 13 years made this challenging operation a great success.\u201d<\/p>\n MinRes reported YTD costs of AUD$107\/wmt at Yilgarn in their March quarter operating results in April, at the top end of their guidance of $97-107\/wmt. The closure comes after MinRes had gone quiet on a plan to develop a magnetite hub to produce high grade ore in the region.<\/p>\n To conserve costs had reduced production from export capacity levels of around 11MTpa to ~8Mtpa in recent years.<\/p>\n The news came a day after Yilgarn iron ore junior Macarthur Minerals (ASX:MIO)<\/strong><\/a> announced a right to mine deal for private Mid-West iron ore producer Gold Valley to extract DSO hematite from its Ullaring project.<\/p>\n CODE COMPANY PRICE WEEK RETURN % MONTH RETURN % 6 MONTH RETURN % YEAR RETURN % MARKET CAP ACS Accent Resources NL 0.007 0% 0% -13% -36% $ 3,311,890.98 ADY Admiralty Resources. 0.009 13% -18% 29% 29% $ 14,665,265.46 AKO Akora Resources 0.15 0% -6% -2% -13% $ 18,073,106.40 BCK Brockman Mining Ltd 0.023 0% 0% -15% -23% $ 213,445,339.01 BHP BHP Group Limited 42.74 -2% -5% -13% -8% $ 217,061,518,967.60 CIA Champion Iron Ltd 6.54 -1% -11% -15% 3% $ 3,326,208,426.42 CZR CZR Resources Ltd 0.3 7% -3% 50% 82% $ 68,363,047.34 DRE Dreadnought Resources Ltd 0.027 35% 59% -13% -48% $ 73,774,532.16 EFE Eastern Resources 0.006 0% -14% -33% -45% $ 7,451,678.77 CUF Cufe Ltd 0.014 8% -26% 0% 27% $ 18,691,573.11 FEX Fenix Resources Ltd 0.32 -3% 0% 23% 28% $ 225,750,824.00 FMG Fortescue Ltd 21.86 -7% -19% -21% -3% $ 67,090,645,563.22 RHK Red Hawk Mining Ltd 0.88 2% -2% 50% 120% $ 175,834,101.52 GEN Genmin 0.105 -30% -22% -34% -19% $ 71,949,090.78 GRR Grange Resources. 0.335 -3% -20% -23% -39% $ 376,135,076.85 GWR GWR Group Ltd 0.089 -5% -11% 5% 29% $ 28,588,282.30 HAV Havilah Resources 0.18 0% -16% -33% -27% $ 56,995,057.80 HAW Hawthorn Resources 0.064 -9% -6% -35% -57% $ 23,451,092.91 HIO Hawsons Iron Ltd 0.028 0% -15% -35% -40% $ 28,249,917.08 IRD Iron Road Ltd 0.082 -2% 6% 17% 3% $ 67,402,091.30 JNO Juno 0.035 -27% -30% -67% -48% $ 7,277,810.40 LCY Legacy Iron Ore 0.014 0% -13% -13% -42% $ 100,276,127.41 MAG Magmatic Resrce Ltd 0.06 -15% -40% 22% -32% $ 24,605,992.13 MDX Mindax Limited 0.048 -11% 66% 0% -36% $ 114,731,891.68 MGT Magnetite Mines 0.33 -12% -12% 16% -21% $ 31,991,273.60 MGU Magnum Mining & Exp 0.016 7% 0% -27% -33% $ 12,949,782.45 MGX Mount Gibson Iron 0.41 0% -8% -25% -18% $ 504,176,749.20 MIN Mineral Resources. 60.57 -9% -23% -10% -17% $ 12,021,449,984.25 MIO Macarthur Minerals 0.06 5% -19% -57% -72% $ 10,323,707.28 PFE Panteraminerals 0.03 -33% -39% -45% -61% $ 10,190,330.04 PLG Pearlgullironlimited 0.022 16% -4% -35% -27% $ 4,499,919.38 RHI Red Hill Minerals 6.68 -1% 3% 36% 50% $ 427,163,989.40 RIO Rio Tinto Limited 119.21 -3% -10% -11% 1% $ 44,271,245,681.64 RLC Reedy Lagoon Corp. 0.003 -25% 0% -40% -48% $ 1,858,622.20 CTN Catalina Resources 0.003 -14% -14% -40% -14% $ 3,715,460.68 SRK Strike Resources 0.036 -10% -25% -31% -48% $ 10,782,500.00 SRN Surefire Rescs NL 0.008 0% -20% -11% -50% $ 16,883,616.41 TI1 Tombador Iron 0.014 0% 0% 0% -30% $ 30,218,753.22 TLM Talisman Mining 0.26 11% -24% 24% 41% $ 50,846,494.23 VMS Venture Minerals 0.027 4% 29% 238% 93% $ 61,200,351.95 EQN Equinoxresources 0.405 9% 62% 31% 224% $ 51,252,501.25 AMD Arrow Minerals 0.003 0% -25% 0% -25% $ 31,618,095.29 CTM Centaurus Metals Ltd 0.465 1% 0% -1% -41% $ 220,800,398.15 <\/p>\n WordPress Table Plugin<\/a><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n From some sad news for WA iron ore to some shockingly positive news for a coking coal developer in Canada, which surged 16% yesterday a little over a week after announcing a $5.25 million capital raising to progress environment approvals and indigenous engagement.<\/p>\nWhat\u2019s behind this?<\/h2>\n
MinRes shuts iron ore hub<\/h2>\n
Shock rise for coal play<\/h2>\n