{"id":10413,"date":"2024-06-02T19:50:38","date_gmt":"2024-06-02T19:50:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=10413"},"modified":"2024-06-02T19:50:38","modified_gmt":"2024-06-02T19:50:38","slug":"traders-diary-everything-you-need-to-get-ready-for-the-week-ahead-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=10413","title":{"rendered":"Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to get ready for the week ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

What grabbed the headlines last week?<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Major global share markets fell over the last week, as higher bond yields weighed. We also learned that, in America, a convicted felon can totally run for president.<\/p>\n

The current pres might need to pipe up a bit.<\/p>\n\n

That\u2019s because ex-pres Donal Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of election fraud. He\u2019s scheduled to be sentenced on July 11, just four days before the Republican National Convention, when the party will officially nominate him for president.<\/p>\n

Trump is leading Biden in polls by around 1 point, but around 14% are undecided and 15-25% of his supporters have indicated they will reconsider if he is convicted of a crime.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Via AMP<\/p>\n

Against this, the guilty verdict may just serve to galvanise support amongst his base. Straight after the guilty verdict the PredictIt betting market saw the probability of a Biden victory rebound to just below that of Trump. But there is a long way to go yet.<\/p>\n

The wheels of justice grind on, the bolts of comprehension which hold the wheels of sanity together are fading under the strain:<\/p>\n

BREAKING: Donald Trump makes his entrance at UFC 302 just days after being convicted in New York.pic.twitter.com\/XpskpVz7mr<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 ALX (@alx) June 2, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n

The victor in this blood match seeks out the fun lovin\u2019 crinimal republican nominee<\/p>\n

UFC fighter Kevin Holland instantly runs to Trump after being declared the winner pic.twitter.com\/AgtSTUSdfm<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) June 2, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n\n

Joins TikTok, the app he tried to ban.<\/p>\n

@teamgutierrez2024<\/a> #duet<\/a> with @President Donald J Trump #DonaldTrump<\/a> #DonaldJTrump<\/a> #Trump<\/a> #Trump2024<\/a> #TeamTrump<\/a> #TrumpTrain<\/a> #MAGA<\/a> #ULTRAMAGA<\/a> #RedWave<\/a> #RedWave2024<\/a> #PresidentTrump<\/a> #PresidentDonaldJTrump<\/a> #RealDonaldTrump<\/a> #Trump47<\/a> \u266c original sound \u2013 President Donald J Trump<\/a><\/p>\n

Anyhoo.<\/p>\n

For the week US shares fell 0.5%, Eurozone shares lost 1%. Japanese shares fell 0.4% and Chinese shares fell 0.6%. This still left US shares up 4.8% in May and global shares up 3.8% after the weakness seen in April.<\/p>\n

The local benchmark ASX200 (XJO) index rallied gallantly on Friday, making back almost 1% and slashing\u00a0 the weekly decline to just 0.3%.<\/p>\n

As Aussie bonds around them sold off on rising yields, local traders jostled to price in a small chance of RBA hikes, after the April CPI indicator showed a modest tick\u2011up in inflation.<\/p>\n

At its nadir on Thursday, the ASX200 had walked back almost 4%, but come the close on Friday, it was smack in the middle of its last four months\u2019 trading range, hence our current market neutral stance.<\/p>\n

Last week, local markets and the economists what watch them were laser-focused on the April CPI indicator, which showed a modest tick\u2011up in inflation at 3.6%y-o-y.<\/p>\n

But AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver says Aussie inflation is likely to resume its downtrend and the economy is looking weaker, and still sees the next RBA move as being a cut.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe RBA is likely to again consider the case for another rate hike at its 18 June meeting just like it did at its May meeting.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

With April inflation dropping higher than consensus (3.4%) but closer to CBA\u2019s expectations for a 3.5% read, says CBA economist Stephen Wu.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t expect this to have any immediate implications for near\u2011term monetary policy; the RBA has already noted that they would \u2018look through short\u2011term variations in inflation\u2019, and their forecasts are for inflation in Q2 24 to be 3.8%\/yr.\u201d<\/p>\n

Stephen adds that perhaps catching the central bank\u2019s eye would be the unexpected strength in clothing & footwear prices in April.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the disinflationary pulse for discretionary goods does not continue, or if the current cautious consumer behaviour changes, the RBA may re\u2011consider their judgment on the consumer outlook, particularly in light of tax cuts and other cost\u2011of\u2011living measures coming through from 1 July.\u201d<\/p>\n

The central bank said it\u2019s \u201cacceptable\u201d to look through some of the short\u2011term wobblies in inflation. That makes this week\u2019s GDP figures and the outcome of the yearly award wage decision big bingo.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The ASX200 closed up Friday, gaining 73.50 points or 0.96% to 7,701.70 after setting a new 20-day low.<\/p>\n

Via ASX<\/em><\/p>\n

Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX)<\/strong><\/a> and West African Resources (ASX:WAF)<\/strong><\/a> were up 15.31% and 6.99% respectively.<\/p>\n

BHP\u2019s (ASX:BHP)<\/strong><\/a> thirrd and final bid to snatch Anglo American for $75 billion fell through its fingers, a cluster-structured\u00a0 hot mess meaning neither side could understand what was happening.<\/p>\n

A core condition as per the (large\/great\/big?) Australian\u2019s initial mid-April shot required Anglo to spin off its majority stakes in two listed South African miners.<\/p>\n

BHP didn\u2019t want them but was up for an all-share lunch of what would be left of Anglo American.<\/p>\n

Anyhoo, that\u2019s blown.<\/p>\n

The failure means another offer is on ice\u00a0 since UK law prohibits BHP from making another bid for six months unless there\u2019s a rival offer, Anglo invites another approach offer, or there is another material change in circumstances.<\/p>\n

BHP is moving in a clear direction.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the single Aussie miner with with its hands on the copper lever. But\u2026<\/p>\n

\u201cBHP has to contend with a drop off in Escondida headgrades in FY27 which won\u2019t be offset until either a new and larger concentrator replaces the busted up Los Colorados concentrator and\/or large-scale sulphide leaching can be employed,\u201d Citi told clients last week.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn FY24 we estimate BHP is most leveraged to copper at ~22% of attributable EBITDA, followed by S32 at 19% and then RIO at 10%.\u201d<\/p>\n

That contributed to the hit ASX Resources stocks endured, although Utilities were the worst performers, lacking 2.3%.<\/p>\n

Of the 11 ASX sectors, five ended lower and six still closed positive for a volatile week:<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Via ASX<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Not the ASX<\/h2>\n

Don\u2019t need to know too much French when the news is so mauvaise:\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Via Le Monde<\/p>\n

Elsewhere, the Standard & Poors\u00a0 applied the blowtorch to the French economy, downgrading the rating for France from \u201cAA\u201d to \u201cAA-\u201c, citing the Macron government\u2019s failure to meet its targets for easing the massive pandemic\/energy crisis double-whammy of a budget deficit.<\/p>\n

Following that substantial spending, the French budget for 2023 was 5.5% of GDP, which S&P noted was \u201csignificantly higher than we previously forecast\u201d.<\/p>\n

S&P stated that while reforms and an economic recovery will lead to improvements, the deficit will still exceed 3% of GDP in 2027.<\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s credit rating for France was last set at Aa2 with stable outlook. Fitch\u2019s credit rating for France was last reported at AA- with stable outlook.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Narendra\u2019s India<\/strong><\/p>\n

Narendra Modi is all set for another term as India\u2019s rather powerful prime minister.<\/p>\n

On Saturday night\u00a0 both the exit polls and Indian TV stations and agencies which ran them seemed to evnisage a much stronger than expected showing for the already favoured (National Democratic Alliance) Bharatiya Janata party and its little coalition mates.<\/p>\n

The Modi-led National Democratic Alliance winning a comfortable majority of between 353 and 401 seats in India\u2019s 543-seat Lok Sabha, or lower house, and easily beating the opposition INDIA alliance, a coalition of parties coagulating around the formerly ruling Indian National Congress.<\/p>\n

And which Modi makes mincemeat of every five mins or so:<\/p>\n

The opportunistic INDI Alliance failed to strike a chord with the voters. They are casteist, communal and corrupt. This alliance, aimed to protect a handful of dynasties, failed to present a futuristic vision for the nation. Through the campaign, they only enhanced their\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2014 Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) June 1, 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

\nThat leaves Modi with a strong mandate to form the next government, taking him into a second decade as prime minister. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe opportunistic INDI Alliance failed to strike a chord with voters,\u201d Modi said in a series of posts on X on Saturday evening.<\/p>\n

In India\u2019s last election in 2019 the NDA won 352 lower house seats, of which the BJP on its own won 303. The Election Commission of India is due to report official results on 4 June.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where Australian Defence Minister Stephen Marles found himself all but shirtfronted by a gang of loiteriong Chinese generals,\u00a0 the US and Chinese sides are apparently as far off the mark on shared values as they are in media translations of the same event.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Via Global Times<\/em><\/p>\n

The view from the US was slightly different.<\/p>\n

Admiral Dong Jun vowed that anyone who aims to separate Taiwan from China will face \u201cself-destruction,\u201d wrote CNBC.<\/p>\n

The admiral called on \u201cforces for Taiwan independence\u201d to \u201cabandon the illusion and return to the right track of reunification.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAnyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China will only end up in self-destruction,\u201d he threatened.<\/p>\n

Via CNBC<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, late on Sunday here in Sydney, China landed a spacecraft on the far side of the Moon for the first time to grab samples and suss out its likelihood for a lunar base, according to the China National Space Administration.<\/p>\n

State news agency Xinhua hailed the landing as the \u201cfirst endeavour of its kind in the history of human lunar exploration\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

OPEC+ meets\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Last week WTI crude futures fell over 1.1% to settle at US$76.99 a barrel on Friday, marking a 6% decline for the month, the worst performance since November, ahead of expected OPEC+ cuts.<\/p>\n

The decision by OPEC and non-OPEC countries on output levels will greet markets on Monday as the cartel is scheduled to hold online meetings on Sunday.<\/p>\n

Reports suggest that the oil alliance will extend the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of 2024 while the pledges by all OPEC+ members to restrict output by 3.66 million bpd could be stretched into 2025.<\/p>\n\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Wall Street<\/h2>\n

Last week, despite stronger turn out on Friday in New York, the S&P500 ended flat, the Nasdaq lost 0.4%, and the Dow declined by 1%.<\/p>\n

The S&P500 closed 0.8% higher on Friday, while the Dow surged some 570 points, led by big numbers for Salesforce and UnitedHealth.<\/p>\n

The tech heavy Nasdaq ended same-same.<\/p>\n

Investors were assessing the potential timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts, especially after PCE inflation figures aligned with expectations. In the corporate side, UnitedHealth shares rose 2.9%, and Salesforce rebounded 7.5% after a 20% drop the previous day due to missed revenue and sales growth targets, significantly boosting the Dow.<\/p>\n

Gap soared 28.6% after its Q1 earnings beat estimates, and Nordstrom added 5% following decent quarterly sales data.<\/p>\n

On the other side of the ledger and despite logging strong earnings, Dell Tech crashed 18% with traders leaping ship for sounder AI sailing after the firm revealed much lower-than-expected AI server backlog.<\/p>\n

Bg ol\u2019 Costco also backtracked near 1%, despite the mega food place reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Week Ahead<\/h2>\n

Central bank meetings around the EU and Canada will be in the spotlight, while key data releases include US payrolls, mainland China\u2019s trade data and worldwide PMI updates across countries and sectors.<\/p>\n

GDP updates are also on the way from the EU, Brazil, South Africa and for wee Australia.<\/p>\n

In the US, May non-farm payrolls and wage growth statistics are anticipated, with the market eager for signs of slowing jobs growth and softening wage pressures.<\/p>\n

The Fair Work Commission is due to deliver its decision on Monday with a smaller rise most likely compared to last year.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a decision which directly impacts around 21% of workers, all of which are feeling the COLC.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Globally, attention will be on the interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, and Reserve Bank of India. Inflation rates will be released for Turkey, Indonesia, South Korea, Switzerland, the Philippines, and Mexico.<\/p>\n

According to the latest May US flash PMI data, employment conditions were relatively subdued midway through the second quarter of the year. Traders will also closely monitor JOLTs Job Openings, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, factory orders, and foreign trade data.<\/p>\n

Given the angst all round regarding these ever, ever delayed Fed cuts, any macro messages pointing to easing wage pressures will be a red rag to the bulls.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, home price growth (Tuesday) is expected to have slowed in March and consumer confidence (also Tuesday) is likely to have fallen slightly.<\/p>\n

In the EU there\u2019s inflation data for May (Friday) and unemployment for April (Thursday).<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

US Futures on Sunday night:<\/h2>\n

Via Fox<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Economic Calendar<\/h2>\n

Monday June 3 \u2013 Friday June 7<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

MONDAY
\nAU CoreLogic Dwelling Prices, May
\nAU MI Inflation Gauge, May
\nJN Company Profits, Q1
\nCH Trade Balance, May
\nNew Zealand
\nMalaysia
\nThailand Market Holiday
\nWorldwide Manufacturing PMIs, incl. global PMI (May)
\nIndonesia Inflation (May)
\nTurkey Inflation (May)
\nUnited States ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)<\/p>\n

TUESDAY
\nASEAN Manufacturing PMI (May)
\nSouth Korea Inflation (May)
\nSwitzerland Inflation (May)
\nGermany Unemployment Rate (May)
\nSouth Africa GDP (Q1)
\nBrazil GDP (Q1)
\nUnited States Factory Orders (Apr)<\/p>\n

WEDNESDAY
\nWorldwide Services, Composite PMIs, inc. global PMI (May)
\nSouth Korea GDP (Q1, final)
\nPhilippines Inflation (May)
\nAustralia GDP (Q1)
\nThailand Inflation (May)
\nFrance Industrial Production (Apr)
\nBrazil Industrial Production (Apr)
\nUnited States ADP Employment Change (May)
\nCanada BoC Interest Rate Decision
\nUnited States ISM Services PMI (May)<\/p>\n

THURSDAY<\/strong>
\nSouth Korea, Sweden Market Holiday
\nAustralia Trade (Apr)
\nSwitzerland Unemployment Rate (May)
\nGermany Factory Orders (Apr)
\nTaiwan Inflation (May)
\nEurozone Retail Sales (Apr)
\nEurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision
\nEurozone Construction PMI (May)
\nUnited Kingdom Construction PMI (May)
\nUnited States Balance of Trade (Apr)
\nUnited States Initial Jobless Claims
\nGlobal Sector PMI (May)<\/p>\n

FRIDAY
\nChina (Mainland) Trade (May)
\nIndia RBI Interest Rate Decision
\nGermany Trade and Industrial Production (Apr)
\nUnited Kingdom Halifax House Price Index (May)
\nFrance Balance of Trade (Apr)
\nEurozone Employment Change (Q1, final)
\nEurozone GDP (Q1, 3rd est.)
\nMexico Inflation (May)
\nCanada Trade (Apr)
\nCanada Unemployment Rate (May)
\nUnited States Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate,
\nAverage Hourly Earnings (May)<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n
EC PPI, Apr, m%ch, (-0.4)<\/div>\n
\n
US Durable Goods Orders, Apr, (0.7)<\/div>\n
US Composite PMI, May, Index, (54.4)<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
AU Net Exports, Q1, ppts, -0.8 (0.6)<\/div>\n
AU Inventories, Q1, q%ch, 0.9 (-1.7)<\/div>\n
AU Company Operating Profit, Q1, q%ch, -2.5 (7.4)<\/div>\n
US Construction Spending, Apr, m%ch, (-0.2)<\/div>\n
JN Coincident Index, Apr, Index, (113.6)<\/div>\n
EC PPI, Apr, m%ch, (-0.4)<\/div>\n
US ADP Employment Change, May, \u2018000, (192)<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
AU Composite PMI, May, Index, (52.6)<\/div>\n
AU GDP, Q1, q%ch, 0.1 (0.2)<\/div>\n
GE Unemployment Rate, May, %, (5.9)<\/div>\n
\n
US ISM Services, May, Index, (49.4)<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
EC PPI, Apr, m%ch, (-0.4)<\/div>\n
CH Caixin Composite PMI, May, Index, (52.8)<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
AU Value of New Housing Loans, Apr, m%ch, 3.5 (3.1)<\/div>\n
AU Trade Balance, Apr, A$m, 5300 (5024)<\/div>\n
JN Composite PMI, May, Index, (52.4)<\/div>\n
EC Retail Sales, Apr, m%ch, (0.8)<\/div>\n
\n
EC ECB Main Refinancing Rate, Jun, %, 4.25 (4.5)<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
US Trade Balance, Apr, $b, (-69.4)<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
AU RBA Deputy Governor Fireside Chat<\/div>\n
US JOLTS Job Openings, Apr, \u2018000, (8488)<\/div>\n
US Factory Orders, Apr, m%ch, (1.6)<\/div>\n
JN Leading Index CI, Apr, Index, (112.2)<\/div>\n
EC GDP, Q1, q%ch, (0.3)<\/div>\n
GE Industrial Production, Apr, m%ch, (-0.4)<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
EC ECB Marginal Lending Facility, Jun, %, 4.50 (4.75)<\/div>\n
GE Trade Balance, Apr, \u20acb, (22.3)<\/div>\n
US ISM Services, May, Index, (49.4)<\/div>\n
EC ECB Deposit Facility Rate, Jun, %, 3.75 (4)<\/div>\n
US Wholesale Inventories, Apr<\/div>\n
CA Bank of Canada Rate Decision, Jun, %, 4.75 (5)<\/div>\n
GE Factory Orders, Apr, m%ch, (-0.4)<\/div>\n
US Nonfarm Payrolls, May, \u2018000, (175)<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
US Unemployment Rate, May, %, (3.9)<\/div>\n
CA Trade Balance, Apr, CA$b, (-2.28)<\/div>\n
CA Change in Employment, May, \u2018000, (90.4)<\/div>\n
CA Unemployment Rate, May, %, (6.1<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

The post Traders\u2019 Diary: Everything you need to get ready for the week ahead<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What grabbed the headlines last week? \u00a0 Major global share markets fell over the last week, as higher bond yields weighed. 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