{"id":10290,"date":"2024-05-29T19:40:46","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T19:40:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=10290"},"modified":"2024-05-29T19:40:46","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T19:40:46","slug":"moneytalks-the-3-asx-stocks-which-soul-patts-cant-live-without","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economicherald.net\/?p=10290","title":{"rendered":"MoneyTalks: The 3 ASX stocks which Soul Patts can\u2019t live without"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

According to Morningstar Associate Investment Specialist Joseph Taylor<\/a>, at first blush there\u2019s not a lot of symmetry for the casual observer to discover when considering Warren Buffett\u2019s Berkshire Hathaway and the ASX-listed \u201cdiversified investment house\u201d we\u2019ve come to know and frequent: Soul Patts.<\/p>\n

But therein lies the adventure.<\/p>\n

Both Washington H Soul Pattinson (ASX:SOL)<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0 and Berkshire (not Buffett) can trace their history back to the 1800s.<\/p>\n

Both businesses own public and private companies with a staunchly long-term mindset.<\/p>\n

And most excitingly, both companies have a storied history and a pretty solid track record of beating the market.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Chemistry<\/h2>\n

SOL started off life as a pharmacy chain about 138 years ago.<\/p>\n

They listed on the ASX in 1903, back when it was probably the ASX 7.<\/p>\n

After the war they had about 40 shops and then there were 300+.<\/p>\n

Then \u2013 sometime during the 1970s and 80s when everyone else wasting time rolling stones or thwarting wars \u2013 the retail chain became a building materials, telco and resources investor of some note and scale.<\/p>\n

These days it\u2019s an ASX50 regular with a market value of over $11 billion.<\/p>\n\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Today, Soul Patts calls itself \u201ca diversified investment house that is unique in Australia (which aims to grow shareholder wealth through a diversified range of investments that perform throughout market cycles).\u201d<\/p>\n

And it kinda does just that.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the investor presso blurb from March:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Our capital is opportunity-led<\/strong>
\n\u2022 Our portfolio is flexible as to asset allocation<\/strong>
\n\u2022 Our portfolio is asset backed with no redemption risk<\/strong>
\n\u2022 Our investment horizons are undefined<\/strong>
\n\u2022 Our internalised management results in cost efficiency<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Incredibly, all these years later Soul Patts\u2019 net asset value (NAV) stems from those original long-term holdings in three ASX shares:
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n

Brickworks (ASX:BKW)<\/strong><\/a> \u2013\u00a0TPG Telecom (ASX:TPM)<\/strong><\/a> \u2013\u00a0New Hope Corp (ASX:NHC)<\/strong><\/a><\/h2>\n

Together, Jason says these investments account for around 60% of Soul Patts\u2019 total assets.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Via WSP<\/p>\n

\u201cThis figure was more like 80% until their takeover of listed investment company Milton in 2021 brought with it with a large portfolio of equities.<\/p>\n

\u201cA decent chunk of this portfolio appears to have been sold and freed up for investment in private assets,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cDespite the uptick in diversification and a growing private portfolio, sentiment towards Soul Patts continues to be dominated by the fate of Brickworks, TPG and New Hope.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Brickworks (ASX:BKW)<\/strong><\/a><\/h2>\n

Soul Patts has a 43% interest in Brickworks, which comprised around 17% of Soul Patts\u2019 NAV as of 31 January.<\/p>\n

\u201cBrickworks, in turn, owns 26% of Soul Patts in a cross-shareholding initiated in 1969 to protect both firms from hostile takeovers. This predated the current Corporation Act and would not be permitted today. Our analysts are not aware of a similar ownership structure in the ASX 200, and it could help Soul Patts take a longer term view.<\/p>\n

\u201cBrickworks is a conglomerate consisting of building product manufacturing operations, property management and its 26% shareholding in Soul Patts.\u201d<\/p>\n

Morningstar Brickworks analyst Esther Holloway estimates that about half of the firm\u2019s enterprise value comes from its holding in Soul Patts, 40% from its property segment and less than 10% from its Australian and North American building products businesses.<\/p>\n

In conjunction with 50:50 joint venture partner, Goodman Group, Brickworks\u2019 property business is focused on warehouse property development in Western Sydney. This large residential and industrial area has warehouse development potential due to its proximity to Sydney\u2019s major highways and the soon-to-be-completed Badgerys Creek international airport.<\/p>\n

With an undersupply of warehouses in the area, and Goodman\u2019s established relationships with national and international companies, our analysts are bullish about this opportunity. Its current development in Western Sydney\u2019s Eastern Creek has high quality tenants such as Amazon, Coles, and Woolworths.<\/p>\n

\u201cBrickworks\u2019 building products segment is trying to reinforce its position as the lowest-cost brick manufacturer in its two segments of Australia and North America. Brickworks entered the United States in 2018 via the acquisition of Glen-Gery, a building product company similar to Brickworks. <\/p>\n

\u201cIn both geographies, Brickworks follows a strategy of plant rationalization and plant upgrades to improve efficiency, capacity, and sustainability. Product innovation such as a high-end range in bricks, cladding and pavers aids higher gross margins. As a cyclical business, our analysts like Brickworks\u2019 strategy to continuously improve unit costs.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur analysts do not think Brickworks has a moat. The industrial property sector lacks significant barriers to entry. Meanwhile, Brickworks\u2019 building materials business doesn\u2019t appear to have any scale-based cost advantages, the most common moat source in commodity businesses.\u201d<\/p>\n

Morningstar\u2019s fair value estimate for Brickworks is currently $31 per share.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis comprises discounted cash flow valuations for the firm\u2019s property rental income and building materials segment, and equity valuations for the Soul Patts stake and property joint venture.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt a current price of around $26 per share, Brickworks looks undervalued,\u201d Joseph says.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0New Hope Corp (ASX:NHC)<\/strong><\/a><\/h2>\n

\u201cSoul Patts own around 39% of New Hope, having first bought a 50% stake in New Hope Collieries in the 1970s when it was still a private company. As of 31 January, Soul Patts\u2019 stake in New Hope comprised around 16% of its net asset value.<\/p>\n

\u201cNew Hope offers exposure to global energy demand via increasing thermal coal production at a time when many other miners are winding down or selling their thermal coal assets. The strategy relies on demand for high quality thermal coal remaining robust longer-term. The purchase of a further 40% interest in the Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales in 2018 took its ownership of Bengalla to 80% after the company purchased its initial 40% stake in 2016. Along with the development of New Acland Stage 3, this sees New Hope reliant on thermal coal.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur mining analyst Jon Mills recently raised his fair value estimate for New Hope to $5.90 per share, driven by higher thermal coal prices and a weaker Australian dollar. He does, however, allocate a Very High Morningstar Uncertainty Rating to New Hope. Although New Hope has a strong balance sheet and its mines are in or around the lowest quartile of the thermal coal cost curve, much of New Hope\u2019s fair value is driven by near-term earnings, which are dependent on volatile coal prices. He also sees the potential for lower thermal coal use due to environmental concerns as a longer-term risk.<\/p>\n

\u201cDue to this Very High uncertainty rating, New Hope shares only have a 3-star Morningstar rating despite currently trading around 15% below Jon\u2019s fair value estimate.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

TPG Telecom (ASX:TPM)<\/strong><\/a><\/h2>\n

Jospeh says TPG Telecom\u2019s merger with Vodafone in 2020 saw it join Telstra and Optus as Australia\u2019s third heavyweight telco.<\/p>\n

\u201cSoul Patts have a 13% equity interest in TPG Telecom, a position arising from its purchase of NBN Television in the 1980s. As of January 31, this investment comprised around 11% of Soul Patts\u2019 net asset value.\u201d<\/p>\n

Morningstar media analyst Brian Han reckons the TPG stocks price screens \u201ccheaper than any other company\u201d under Morningstar\u2019s teleco\u00a0 coverage across Australia and New Zealand.<\/p>\n

Although the rollout of Australia\u2019s National Broadband Network (NBN) poses a \u201creal threat: to profitability in TPG\u2019s consumer broadband segment, Brian says TPG earnings can recover over the medium term thanks to \u201ca more rational mobile market\u201d and growth in its fixed wireless and corporate segments.<\/p>\n

Morningstar analysts have assigned TPG a narrow moat due to the scale of its fibre infrastructure and existing customer base in Australia.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis means that TPG can spread the costs of technology upgrades, advertising and content rights bidding over a large customer base, which reduces per-subscriber costs and puts TPG in a superior position against many competitors.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe capital costs required for a new entrant to replicate even a small part of TPG\u2019s infrastructure, scale, and brand power would be prohibitive, especially in a relatively small country such as Australia and a relatively mature industry with low single digit annual growth,\u201d Joseph says.<\/p>\n

TPG shares have been weighed down by slower earnings growth as it invests heavily in rolling out 5G, which Brian Han says\u00a0 you can see in the share price, especially given TPG\u2019s longer-term tailwinds from 5G adoption and an increased focus on mobile.<\/p>\n

Via Morningstar<\/em><\/p>\n

At a price of $4.57 on May 27th, TPG shares were around 30% below Morningstar\u2019s fair value estimate of $6.60.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Is Soul Patts undervalued?<\/h2>\n

Soul Patts\u2019 three biggest investments seem rather cheap, says Joseph.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut as I alluded to before, they make up a smaller portion of net assets than was once the case.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs of 31 January, Soul Patts had around $650 million in other strategic long-term holdings, a $2.4 billion portfolio of large-caps and a total of around $3.2 billion across private equity, \u201cemerging companies\u201d and credit investments.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe company\u2019s biggest private holdings include electrical engineering company Ampcontrol, several farms under Soul Patts Agriculture, Ironbark Asset Management and Aquatic Achievers, which appears to be rolling up swimming schools across Australia.<\/p>\n

Soul Patts is also under Morningstar analyst Esther Holloway, who assigns it a fair value of $33 per share \u2013 of which 20% stems from its investment in New Hope, 17% from its holding in Brickworks and 15% from its investment in TPG Telecom.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe balance comes from its other investment holdings. At a current market price of around $32, Soul Patts shares look fairly valued,\u201d Joseph reckons.<\/p>\n

The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interviews in this article are solely those of the interviewees and do not represent the views of Stockhead. Stockhead does not provide, endorse or otherwise assume responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

The post MoneyTalks: The 3 ASX stocks which Soul Patts can\u2019t live without<\/a> appeared first on Stockhead<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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